This is the third of a five-part election recap series.
Our report card revealed that pundits as a group put up an awful showing this election season. But one pundit truly stood out from the heap, both in terms of the sheer number of predictions he got wrong as well as the conviction of those calls.
That pundit is Dick Morris.
Some may already be familiar with the egg on Morris’ face thanks to his appearance on The O’Reilly Factor tonight and the mea culpa on his own website, in which he explains why he got the presidential race so wrong.
But, as you can see from the table below, it was more than just the presidency. Morris also struck out on the Senate result and multiple other races.
|Romney will get 325 electoral votes||11/05/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win by 4-8 percentage points||10/23/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win Michigan||10/23/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win Pennsylvania||10/23/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win 300+ electoral votes||10/23/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win Nevada||10/19/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win Wisconsin||10/23/12||FALSE|
|Obama will lose election||02/27/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win New Hampshire||10/19/12||FALSE|
|Romney will win Ohio||10/19/12||FALSE|
|Bill Nelson will lose re-election (FL Senate)||03/22/12||FALSE|
|Obama will lose Missouri in election||03/27/12||TRUE|
|Republicans will take North Dakota Senate seat||03/22/12||FALSE|
|Democrats will lose the senate||09/21/11||FALSE|
|Obama will lose Florida||3/27/12||FALSE|
|Republicans will take Nebraska Senate seat||03/22/12||TRUE|
2 of 17 predictions correct (12% hit rate)
$1 Yield = $0.20
This brings Morris’ overall track record since we have tracked him to:
6 of 30 predictions correct (20% hit rate)
$1 Yield = $0.31
In other words, if you bet $1 on each of Morris’ calls in a virtual political betting market, you would have lost 70% of your money.
This train wreck raises questions about the viability of Morris and other campaign managers as credible pundits going forward. Are they not simply partisans masquerading as analysts (calling Paul Begala, et al.)?
We would like to give O’Reilly credit for his performance last night. Unlike many hosts, he cataloged Morris’ boldest calls and called him out the day after his calls came due. And Morris isn’t just any pundit – he’s a regular on the show. That kind of transparency is much needed in the world of punditry.
Also in the PT Election Series
Updated Political Pundit Rankings