Worst Election Pundit: Dick Morris

November 8, 2012  |  Politics

This is the third of a five-part election recap series.

Our report card revealed that pundits as a group put up an awful showing this election season. But one pundit truly stood out from the heap, both in terms of the sheer number of predictions he got wrong as well as the conviction of those calls.

That pundit is Dick Morris.

Some may already be familiar with the egg on Morris’ face thanks to his appearance on The O’Reilly Factor tonight and the mea culpa on his own website, in which he explains why he got the presidential race so wrong.

But, as you can see from the table below, it was more than just the presidency. Morris also struck out on the Senate result and multiple other races.

PredictionDate MadeOutcome
Romney will get 325 electoral votes11/05/12FALSE
Romney will win by 4-8 percentage points10/23/12FALSE
Senate: 53(R)-47(D)10/30/12FALSE
Romney will win Michigan10/23/12FALSE
Romney will win Pennsylvania10/23/12FALSE
Romney will win 300+ electoral votes10/23/12FALSE
Romney will win Nevada10/19/12FALSE
Romney will win Wisconsin10/23/12FALSE
Obama will lose election02/27/12FALSE
Romney will win New Hampshire10/19/12FALSE
Romney will win Ohio10/19/12FALSE
Bill Nelson will lose re-election (FL Senate)03/22/12FALSE
Obama will lose Missouri in election03/27/12TRUE
Republicans will take North Dakota Senate seat03/22/12FALSE
Democrats will lose the senate09/21/11FALSE
Obama will lose Florida 3/27/12FALSE
Republicans will take Nebraska Senate seat03/22/12TRUE

The outcome

2 of 17 predictions correct (12% hit rate)

$1 Yield = $0.20

 

This brings Morris’ overall track record since we have tracked him to:

6 of 30 predictions correct (20% hit rate)

$1 Yield = $0.31

 

In other words, if you bet $1 on each of Morris’ calls in a virtual political betting market, you would have lost 70% of your money.

This train wreck raises questions about the viability of Morris and other campaign managers as credible pundits going forward. Are they not simply partisans masquerading as analysts (calling Paul Begala, et al.)?

We would like to give O’Reilly credit for his performance last night. Unlike many hosts, he cataloged Morris’ boldest calls and called him out the day after his calls came due. And Morris isn’t just any pundit – he’s a regular on the show. That kind of transparency is much needed in the world of punditry.

 

Also in the PT Election Series

Election Report Card

Best & Worst Election Predictions

Nate Silver vs. Intrade

Updated Political Pundit Rankings

Comments

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