Welcome to PunditTracker!

December 12, 2011  |  Finance, Politics, Sports

PunditTracker’s mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry.

The absence of media memory creates significant moral hazard in the world of punditry. Nuance and restraint do not play well on soundbite- and ratings-driven media, so shelf space is granted to those who espouse more extreme views. Ideally, these pundits would gain or lose credibility based on the outcomes of their calls. The 24-hour news cycle, however, means that the media is always latching on to the new flavor of the day. Rare is the postmortem to evaluate prior stories.

Pundits are highly incentivized to adhere to the following playbook:

  1. make a brash prediction
  2. if wrong, don’t worry…. no one will remember
  3. if right, selectively tout for self-promotion
  4. repeat cycle

By cataloging and scoring the predictions of pundits, we hope to bring some balance to the equation. Pundits who demonstrate a track record of making of accurate, out-of-consensus calls will appropriately receive their due. Meanwhile, those who are bombastic solely to garner media attention will be exposed.

The website is slated to launch in 2012 and will initially track three types of pundits: Financial, Political, and Sports. In the meantime, we will be running the site as a blog, previewing what’s to come as well as sharing some general thoughts about the prediction industry. We welcome all feedback, including suggestions on who you would like to see tracked – just click here.

Comments

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5 Comments


  1. Are you still in business? Looks as if you will have missed the entire political prediction season by the time, or if, the site goes live.

  2. After reading your initial work, looking forward to even more. As a football writer, it’s enjoyable to see how my own predictions stack up against other writers.

  3. Heard your piece on WNYC podcast (thanks to the internet it is possible for an Englishman sitting in his home in Central-ish England to listen!). Found it very interesting and visited the website.

    I’ve posted about it on my blog http://washminster.blogspot.com/ today. All the very best with your work – and I look forward to using your website in the future.

    Best wishes

    David

  4. I predicted a major terrorist strike against the World Trade Centers, in 1998-1999 and moved my family from Brooklyn NY to Milwaukee WI. Many people laughed at me and ridiculed me, but I sought to protect my family. People changed their attitude toward me after 9/11.
    I didn’t say all that I thought on TV radio or social networks, but many people and a few highly reliable prominent individuals can yet bare witness to my accurate prediction.

  5. was wondering if you have tracked Jim Cramer and what his rating was.
    Also if you’ve tracked political pundits and what their ratings are.
    If you could send the results I’d appreciate. I want to write a piece about accountability defending teachers and this information would help.
    Jill Schultz
    Thanks!

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  1. Why The Prediction Industry Must Be Disrupted | PunditTracker Blog

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  1. Have a pundit you would like us to track? Or some general feedback on the site? Let us know!