Posts Tagged ‘Sports’
The 2013 NFL Draft was widely viewed to be more unpredictable than most. After grading the mock drafts of Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), and Mike Mayock (NFL.com), we can confirm that those views proved correct: all three pundits had a rough year. Todd McShay, who was #1 in mock draft accuracy in each of the past four years, had a particularly woeful showing.
Let’s start with our simple variability measure, which is based on the difference between when each player was projected to be picked and when he was actually picked. A lower variability score is better:
Variability 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 7.3 9.6 9.9 9.3 7.9 10.7 9.1
Kiper 10.1 8.8 10.4 7.7 8.5 11.7 9.6
McShay 10.7 8.7 8.8 6.8 7.0 21.5 10.6
The average variability for the three pundits from 2008-12 was 8.8, which underscores just how poor their 2013 performance (14.7 average) was. Big misses for all three included Sharrif Floyd going #3 to Oakland (he went #23 to Minnesota) and Eddie Lacy going late in the first round (actually went late second round). McShay and Mayock both whiffed on Geno Smith, picking him to go #6 to Cleveland (actual: #39 to Jets).
The worst projection of all, however, was McShay pegging Ryan Nassib going #7 to Buffalo (actual: #110 to the Giants). This was by the far the worst first-round projection since we started tracking the mock drafts in 2008.
Here are all the major hits and misses:
Biggest Hits and Misses (2008-2013)
The variability metric can be significantly impacted by “outliers” such as Nassib, so we have calculated a host of alternative metrics, including:
- Capped Variability (lower = better): caps the maximum penalty of any pick at one round — for instance, McShay’s Nassib pick would be graded as 32 spots off rather than 103 spots
- Median Error (lower = better)
- Hit Rate (higher = better): pure percentage of how many picks were correct
Here are the results for these three metrics from 2008-2013.
Capped Variability 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 7.3 9.6 9.3 9.3 7.9 10.3 8.9
McShay 10.7 8.7 8.7 6.8 7.0 12.3 9.1
Kiper 10.1 8.2 9.5 7.7 8.5 10.9 9.3
Median Error 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 2.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.2
Kiper 3.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.4
McShay 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 5.0 3.8
Hit Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 35% 28% 22% 28% 19% 28% 27%
Kiper 29% 25% 31% 28% 22% 25% 27%
McShay 16% 25% 34% 25% 16% 22% 23%
Will Tavon Austin win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Peyton Manning for MVP? Make your Predictions now on PunditTracker while the voting is still open — click here to submit your picks (use the VOTE NOW buttons).
With the playoffs tipping off tomorrow, let’s revisit how the pundits did with their regular season predictions. We are tracking the predictions of 35 ESPN pundits across 11 categories: 6 division winners, 2 conference winners, overall champion, MVP, and Rookie of the Year. In this post, we will analyze the 6 division winners and MVP/ROY, assuming that LeBron James and Damian Lillard win the player awards, respectively.
The table is ranked by Yield, although you can sort by # correct as well. As a reminder, the Yield metric calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections.
Pundit Atl Ctl SE NW SW Pac RoY MVP # Yield
Kevin Arnovitz BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard James 6 $1.47
Nick Friedell BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard James 6 $1.47
Dave McMenamin BKN IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Lillard James 5 $1.27
Israel Gutierrez BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAC Davis Paul 5 $1.21
Brian Windhorst BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 5 $1.12
Beckley Mason BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 5 $1.12
Mike Mazzeo BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 5 $1.12
David Thorpe PHI CHI MIA DEN SA LAL Lillard James 4 $1.11
Marc Stein BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Chris Palmer BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Larry Coon BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Royce Webb BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Tom Haberstroh BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Maurice Brooks BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Arash Markazi BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Chris Forsberg BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Ian Begley BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Vegas Favorites BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Scoop Jackson BOS IND MIA OKC MEM LAC Drummond Paul 4 $1.02
Justin Verrier BOS IND MIA DEN SA LAL Lillard Durant 4 $0.98
R. Shelburne BOS IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Lillard Paul 4 $0.93
Tim Legler BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 4 $0.90
Keith Lipscomb BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 4 $0.90
John Hollinger BOS IND MIA DEN SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.89
Chad Ford BOS IND MIA DEN SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.89
Adena Andrews BOS IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Davis James 4 $0.84
Jackie MacMullan BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.82
Tim MacMahon BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.82
Chris Ramsay BOS IND MIA DEN MEM LAL Davis James 3 $0.70
J.A. Adande BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis Durant 4 $0.69
Chris Broussard BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis Durant 4 $0.69
Michael Wallace BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Kidd-Gilchrist Paul 4 $0.69
Henry Abbott PHI IND MIA OKC SA LAL Drummond Durant 4 $0.69
Jack Ramsay PHI IND MIA OKC SA LAL Sullinger Wade 4 $0.69
Bruce Bowen BKN IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis Durant 4 $0.69
Adry Torres BKN IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Davis Durant 3 $0.50
Here is a breakdown of the percentage of pundits that got each category correct, alongside the Vegas implied odds for each winner before the season began. For instance, not one of the pundits picked the Knicks to win the Atlantic while only two picked the Clippers to win the Pacific, even though Vegas gave each of them 24% odds.
Category % of Pundits Vegas Odds
Knicks Win Atlantic 0% 24%
Pacers Win Central 86% 57%
Heat Win Southeast 100% 95%
Thunder Win Northwest 86% 86%
Spurs Win Southwest 83% 64%
Clippers Win Pacific 6% 24%
LeBron James Wins MVP 54% 36%
Damian Lillard Wins ROY 31% 29%
Finally, let’s look at the Finals and Championship predictions for the group.
Pundit Yield
(Reg Season 2012)East West Champion
Kevin Arnovitz $1.47 MIA OKC MIA
Nick Friedell $1.47 MIA LAL MIA
Dave McMenamin $1.27 MIA LAL MIA
Israel Gutierrez $1.21 MIA LAL MIA
Beckley Mason $1.12 MIA OKC OKC
Brian Windhorst $1.12 MIA OKC MIA
Mike Mazzeo $1.12 MIA LAL MIA
David Thorpe $1.11 MIA LAL MIA
Arash Markazi $1.04 MIA LAL LAL
Chris Forsberg $1.04 BOS LAL LAL
Chris Palmer $1.04 MIA LAL MIA
Ian Begley $1.04 MIA LAL MIA
Larry Coon $1.04 MIA LAL LAL
Marc Stein $1.04 MIA LAL MIA
Maurice Brooks $1.04 MIA LAL LAL
Royce Webb $1.04 MIA OKC MIA
Tom Haberstroh $1.04 MIA LAL MIA
Scoop Jackson $1.02 MIA LAL MIA
Justin Verrier $0.98 MIA OKC MIA
R. Shelburne $0.93 MIA LAL MIA
Keith Lipscomb $0.90 MIA OKC MIA
Tim Legler $0.90 MIA OKC MIA
Chad Ford $0.89 MIA LAL MIA
John Hollinger $0.89 MIA SA MIA
Adena Andrews $0.84 MIA LAL LAL
Jackie MacMullan $0.82 MIA LAL LAL
Tim MacMahon $0.82 MIA LAL MIA
Chris Ramsay $0.70 MIA LAL LAL
Bruce Bowen $0.69 MIA OKC MIA
Chris Broussard $0.69 MIA LAL MIA
Henry Abbott $0.69 MIA LAL MIA
J.A. Adande $0.69 MIA LAL MIA
Jack Ramsay $0.69 MIA OKC MIA
Michael Wallace $0.69 MIA LAL MIA
Adry Torres $0.50 MIA LAL LAL
Can you do better than these so-called experts? There are still a few hours left to make your predictions for the Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs. Will the Knicks beat the Celtics and the Clippers defeat the Grizzlies, as Kevin Arnovitz is predicting? Make your predictions by visiting our Sports page and using the “Vote Now” buttons.
With the baseball season underway, here is an overview of what the MLB pundits are predicting this year. As we have discussed, despite the concerns about payroll disparity, baseball has proved the toughest sport to predict in recent years. If you had bet $1 on each of the baseball pundit picks over the past three seasons, you would have lost 44% of your money. This compares to an 8% loss for NFL pundits and an 18% gain for NBA pundits.
Will 2013 be be the year in which the MLB pundits turn it around? We will be tracking 63 so-called experts from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox. Here are their aggregate picks across nine categories: six Division Winners, two Pennants, and World Series (the weird formatting is for sorting purposes).
AL(E) AL(C) AL(W) NL(E) NL(C) NL(W) AL
NL W. Series
30: TOR 62: DET 37: LAA 59: WAS 52: CIN 32: SF 39: DET 44: WAS 28: WAS
29: TB 01: KC 16: TEX 04: ATL 11: STL 23: LAD 12: TB 10: CIN 23: DET
03: BAL 00: CHW 10: OAK 00: MIA 00: CHC 07: ARI 06: TOR 05: LAD 04: CIN
01: NYY 00: CLE 00: SEA 00: NYM 00: HOU 01: SD 06: LAA 04: ATL 03: LAA
00: BOS 00: MIN 00: PHI 00: PIT 00: COL 03: TB
01: TOR
01: LAD
There is still time for you to make your own picks for all these categories — and compete with the experts to win prizes — on PunditTracker’s Sports page (simply use the VOTE NOW buttons).
As the table shows, Nationals vs. Tigers is the en vogue choice for the World Series. The tightest races, according to the pundits, will be the AL East and NL West, with the group roughly split on whether the Blue Jays or Rays will take the former and the Giants or Dodgers the latter. Interestingly, the Rays and Dodgers are the more popular choices for the AL and NL Pennant, respectively. Some of the more contrarian picks we are tracking include: Dodgers to win the World Series (Andrew Marchand, ESPN), Padres to win the NL West (Joe Sheehan, SI), Royals to win the AL Central (Jon Morosi, Fox), and Yankees to win the AL East (Mark Simon, ESPN).
Here are the predictions for the individual player awards (ESPN did not predict these):
AL MVP NL MVP AL Cy Young NL Cy Young AL ROY NL ROY
08: Trout 11: Votto 10: Verlander 09: Strasburg 07: Myers 06: Gyorko
04: Longoria 06: Harper 04: Darvish 07: Kershaw 06: Hicks 04: Teheran
03: Cabrera 01: Upton 02: Price 01: Wainwright 03: Bundy 02: Taveras
02: Bautista 01: Posey 02: Hernandez 01: Hamels 02: Profar 01: Miller
01: Pujols 01: Braun 01: Weaver 01: Cain 01: Maurer 01: Eaton
01: Fielder 01: Johnson 01: Greinke 01: Rondo 01: Cole
01: Cano 01: Ryu
01: Wong
01: D'Arnaud
01: Wheeler
Finally, let’s break out the individual predictions of the pundits we have tracked since 2009 (four seasons of predictions). They are ranked by our Yield metric, which measures the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections.
Yield
09-12AL
EastAL
CentAL
WestNL
EastNL
CentNL
WestAL NL World
Series
Jim Caple, ESPN $1.60 TOR DET LAA ATL CIN SF DET CIN DET
Peter Pascarelli, ESPN $1.10 TB DET LAA ATL CIN SF DET CIN DET
Jayson Stark, ESPN $1.07 TOR DET LAA WAS CIN LAD DET WAS WAS
Pedro Gomez, ESPN $0.86 TB DET OAK ATL CIN SF TB CIN CIN
Tom Verducci, SI $0.84 TB DET LAA WAS CIN SF TB WAS WAS
Vegas Favorites $0.82 TOR DET LAA WAS CIN LAD TOR WAS WAS
Albert Chen, SI $0.81 TB DET TEX WAS CIN ARI DET CIN DET
Joe Lemire, SI $0.78 TB DET TEX WAS STL SF TB WAS WAS
Buster Olney, ESPN $0.72 BAL DET OAK WAS CIN ARI DET WAS WAS
Ben Reiter, SI $0.68 TB DET OAK WAS CIN LAD TB LAD TB
Eric Karabell, ESPN $0.57 TB DET LAA WAS STL SF TB WAS TB
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN $0.37 TOR DET LAA WAS CIN LAD DET CIN CIN
To see how all the pundits we track fared last year, see our 2012 MLB recap post.
Brill’s Content, an old media-watchdog magazine, used to track the predictions of political pundits such as George Will and Eleanor Clift. The magazine incorporated an interesting twist: it compared the accuracy of these professional pundits with that of Chippy, a chimpanzee who chose random ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answers. Chippy did quite well, hitting on more than half of his “predictions” and beating out several of the experts.
Inspired by Chippy, today we are introducing three new pundits on PunditTracker: Groundhog Gary, Coin-Flip Chloe, and RNG Roger. These fictitious pundits will make one random prediction each week: Gary in Finance, Chloe in Politics, and Roger in Sports. Each Monday, we will take one popular topic in each category and then literally flip a coin to pick which side the pundit takes.
Not only will this feature allow us to compare the ‘experts’ with a random number generator, but it will also supply a steady stream of predictions for you to vote on.
Gary, Chloe, and Roger have alluredy made their predictions this week – click on their profile pages to make yours:
- Groundhog Gary (Finance)
- Coin-Flip Chloe (Politics)
- RNG Roger (Sports)
As is customary, let’s start with how the NFL pundits from ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS Sports did with their Week 17 predictions. Of the 23 pundits we are currently tracking, five called 13 of 16 games correctly; however, one of those five emerged as this week’s winner.
Mike Golic of ESPN led the pack with 13 of 16 calls correct for a $1.31 yield, including picking the Colts over the Texans for a single game yield of $3.57, this week’s highest-yield prediction. Golic narrowly edged out Mike Ditka and Seth Wickersham who turned out yields of $1.30 and $1.29, respectively, while Merril Hoge ($1.17) and Adam Schefter ($1.16) also called the same number of games right. The toughest games for the pundits this week were the Panthers/Saints (only Will Brinson called it correctly) and the Buccaneers/Falcons (Ron Jaworski and Adam Schefter).
As a reminder, the yield measures the average payout, using Vegas odds, had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections.
[HY-Highest Yield; ODY-$1 Yield; HR-Hit Rate; E-ESPN; Y-Yahoo; C-CBS]
Week 17
| Pundit | Wk 17 ODY | Wk 17 Correct | Wk 17 HR | Wk 17 HY Call | HY Call ODY | Season ODY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pundit Average | 1.02 | 11 | 70% | 1.03 | ||
| Mike Golic (E) | 1.31 | 13 | 81% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 1.01 |
| Seth Wickersham (E) | 1.29 | 13 | 81% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 1.15 |
| Eric Allen (E) | 1.21 | 12 | 75% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 0.96 |
| Merril Hoge (E) | 1.17 | 13 | 81% | Vikings (GB @ MIN) | 2.57 | 1.07 |
| Adam Schefter (E) | 1.16 | 13 | 81% | Buccs (TB @ ATL) | 2.38 | 0.98 |
| Jason Cole (Y) | 1.15 | 12 | 75% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 1.10 |
| Mike Ditka (E) | 1.30 | 13 | 81% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 1.06 |
| Ryan Wilson (C) | 1.05 | 11 | 69% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 0.99 |
| Keyshawn Johnson (E) | 1.05 | 11 | 69% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 0.96 |
| Cris Carter (E) | 1.01 | 12 | 75% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 0.99 |
| Vegas Favorites | 1.01 | 12 | 75% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 0.94 |
| Prediction Machine (C) | 1.01 | 12 | 75% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| Ron Jaworski (E) | 0.97 | 11 | 69% | Buccs (TB @ ATL) | 2.38 | 1.02 |
| Chris Mortensen (E) | 0.97 | 11 | 69% | Vikings (GB @ MIN) | 2.57 | 1.14 |
| Les Carpenter (Y) | 0.94 | 10 | 63% | Colts (HOU @ IND) | 3.57 | 0.99 |
| Will Brinson (C) | 0.93 | 10 | 63% | Panthers (CAR @ NO) | 2.90 | 1.09 |
| Mike Silver (Y) | 0.93 | 11 | 69% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 1.12 |
| Clark Judge (C) | 0.93 | 11 | 69% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 1.01 |
| Accuscore (E) | 0.93 | 11 | 69% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 0.98 |
| Dave Richard (C) | 0.93 | 11 | 69% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 0.96 |
| Josh Katzowitz (C) | 0.91 | 11 | 69% | Bears (CHI @ DET) | 1.66 | 1.08 |
| Tom Jackson (E) | 0.91 | 11 | 69% | Skins (DAL @ WSH) | 1.64 | 0.99 |
| Mark Schlereth (E) | 0.82 | 10 | 63% | Skins (DAL @ WSH) | 1.64 | 1.01 |
| Pete Prisco (C) | 0.81 | 10 | 63% | Bills (NYJ @ BUF) | 1.60 | 1.02 |
| Jason La Canfora (C) | 0.72 | 9 | 56% | Bills (NYJ @ BUF) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Mike Freeman (C) | 0.90 | 10 | 63% | Vikings (GB @ MIN) | 2.57 | 1.03 |
Keep in mind that we still have the playoffs to go, but our regular season champion is (drumroll…)
Seth Wickersham (ESPN)
Over the past several weeks, Wickersham and Chris Mortensen have been battling neck and neck for the top spot, with Mortensen generally holding a razor-thin lead. Wickersham’s week 17 performance was just enough to edge out Mort, who called 11/16 correctly for a $0.97 yield, to become the NFL regular season’s top pundit.
On the other end of the spectrum, we also had a photo finish for worst pundit of the season. Three pundits came out to a $0.96 season yield: Keyshawn Johnson (ESPN), Dave Richard (CBS), and Eric Allen (ESPN), but when extending out the digits, the worst performer was Keyshawn Johnson.
Of course, all pundits have their good weeks and bad weeks. A couple extreme examples over the course of the 2012 season include:
Best Week: Merril Hoge in Week 4 – 14/15 correct for a $1.65 yield.
Worst Week: Les Carpenter in Week 6 – 3/14 correct for a $0.31 yield.
Here is a summary of how all of our pundits fared during the 2012 regular season.
2012 Season
| Pundit | 2012 ODY | 2012 Correct | 2012 HR | 2012 HY Call | HY Call ODY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pundit Average | 1.03 | 165 | 64% | ||
| Seth Wickersham | 1.15 | 179 | 70% | Redskins (WSH @ NO)-9/9/2012 | 4.49 |
| Chris Mortensen | 1.14 | 178 | 70% | Bills (BUF @ ARI)-10/14/2012 | 3.12 |
| Mike Silver | 1.12 | 175 | 68% | Colts (IND @ DET)-12/2/2012 | 3.79 |
| Jason Cole | 1.10 | 173 | 68% | Colts (IND @ DET)-12/2/2012 | 3.79 |
| Will Brinson | 1.09 | 168 | 66% | Bills (BUF @ ARI)-10/14/2012 | 3.12 |
| Josh Katzowitz | 1.08 | 171 | 67% | Colts (IND @ DET)-12/2/2012 | 3.79 |
| Merril Hoge | 1.07 | 171 | 67% | Redskins (WSH @ NO)-9/9/2012 | 4.49 |
| Mike Ditka | 1.06 | 166 | 65% | Colts (IND @ DET)-12/2/2012 | 3.79 |
| Mike Freeman | 1.03 | 164 | 64% | Colts (IND @ DET)-12/2/2012 | 3.79 |
| Pete Prisco | 1.02 | 166 | 65% | Chiefs (CAR @ KC)-12/2/2012 | 3.12 |
| Ron Jaworski | 1.02 | 168 | 66% | Chiefs (CAR @ KC)-12/2/2012 | 3.12 |
| Mike Golic | 1.01 | 162 | 63% | Colts (HOU @ IND)-12/30/2012 | 3.57 |
| Clark Judge | 1.01 | 166 | 65% | Steelers (PIT @ NYG)-11/4/2012 | 2.80 |
| Mark Schlereth | 1.01 | 165 | 64% | Redskins(WSH @ CLE)-12/16/2012 | 3.02 |
| Jason La Canfora | 1.00 | 158 | 62% | Giants (NYG @ SF)-10/14/2012 | 3.78 |
| Ryan Wilson | 0.99 | 158 | 62% | Steelers (PIT @ BAL)-12/2/2012 | 3.84 |
| Tom Jackson | 0.99 | 161 | 63% | Redskins (WSH @ CLE)-12/16/2012 | 3.02 |
| Les Carpenter | 0.99 | 157 | 61% | Colts (HOU @ IND)-12/30/2012 | 3.57 |
| Cris Carter | 0.99 | 164 | 64% | Chiefs (CAR @ KC)-12/2/2012 | 3.12 |
| Accuscore | 0.98 | 164 | 64% | Redskins (WSH @ CLE)-12/16/2012 | 3.02 |
| Adam Schefter | 0.98 | 160 | 63% | Rams (SF @ STL)-12/2/2012 | 4.23 |
| Prediction Machine | 0.97 | 163 | 64% | 49ers (SF @ NE)-12/16/2012 | 2.90 |
| Dave Richard | 0.96 | 159 | 62% | Steelers (PIT @ NYG)-11/4/2012 | 2.80 |
| Eric Allen | 0.96 | 154 | 60% | Eagles (PHI @ TB)-12/9/2012 | 3.94 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 0.96 | 154 | 60% | Redskins (WSH @ NO)-9/9/2012 | 4.49 |
| Vegas Favorites | 0.94 | 163 | 64% | Colts (CLE @ IND)-10/21/2012 | 1.92 |
Also included in the table are the highest yield calls of the season for each pundit. The best single-game yield was the Redskins to beat the Saints in Week 1, which three pundits got right: Wickersham, Hoge, and Johnson all rightfully bought into the RG III hype.
Now take the following network comparisons with a grain of salt, given the limited sample size: there are only 3 pundits we are tracking from Yahoo as compared to 8 from CBS and 12 from ESPN. That being said, here are 2012 season numbers in a nutshell.
2012 Season
| Network | # pundits | Avg Correct | Avg Incorrect | HR | ODY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Pundits | 23 | 165.1 | 90.9 | 64% | 1.03 |
| YAHOO | 3 | 168.3 | 87.7 | 66% | 1.07 |
| ESPN | 12 | 165.2 | 90.8 | 65% | 1.03 |
| CBS | 8 | 163.8 | 92.3 | 64% | 1.02 |
Finally, here are our cumulative rankings to date, which includes last year’s weekly picks. Mike Silver continues to lead the pack with a cumulative yield of $1.11 with Wickersham, our 2012 leader, pulling to #2 overall. Mortensen’s strong performance this year brings his cumulative yield to $1.05, good for #5 on our board.
2011 and 2012 Seasons ($1 Yield)
| Pundit | 2011 | 2012 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average | $0.99 | $1.03 | $1.02 |
| Mike Silver (Yahoo) | $1.08 | $1.12 | $1.11 |
| Seth Wickersham (ESPN) | $1.04 | $1.15 | $1.09 |
| Josh Katzowitz (CBS) | $1.08 | $1.08 | |
| Mike Ditka (ESPN) | $1.06 | $1.06 | |
| Chris Mortensen (ESPN) | $0.95 | $1.14 | $1.05 |
| Mike Freeman (CBS) | $1.05 | $1.03 | $1.05 |
| Will Brinson (CBS) | $0.96 | $1.09 | $1.03 |
| Les Carpenter (Yahoo) | $1.06 | $0.99 | $1.03 |
| Jason Cole (Yahoo) | $0.96 | $1.10 | $1.03 |
| Merril Hoge (ESPN) | $0.98 | $1.07 | $1.02 |
| Clark Judge (CBS) | $1.01 | $1.01 | $1.01 |
| Mark Schlereth (ESPN) | $0.99 | $1.01 | $1.01 |
| Pete Prisco (CBS) | $0.96 | $1.02 | $1.00 |
| Ron Jaworski (ESPN) | $0.97 | $1.02 | $1.00 |
| Jason La Canfora (CBS) | $1.00 | $1.00 | |
| Dave Richard (CBS) | $1.00 | $0.96 | $0.99 |
| Mike Golic (ESPN) | $0.96 | $1.01 | $0.99 |
| Tom Jackson (ESPN) | $0.99 | $0.99 | |
| Ryan Wilson (CBS) | $0.99 | $0.99 | |
| Cris Carter (ESPN) | $0.99 | $0.99 | |
| Eric Allen (ESPN) | $0.99 | $0.96 | $0.97 |
| Keyshawn Johnson (ESPN) | $0.96 | $0.96 | |
| Adam Schefter (ESPN) | $0.94 | $0.98 | $0.96 |
Can RG3 and the Skins keep the magic going against Seattle to extend an improbable 7 game win streak? How costly will that week 17 loss to the Colts prove for the Texans? Enter your Wild-Card Weekend picks now by clicking here and win the chance to make your own predictions on PunditTracker.com. Many of our users have been clobbering the NFL “experts” so far this year — start building your own track record today.
