Posts Tagged ‘Glenn Beck’

Vote: Worst Political Prediction of 2012

December 5, 2012  |  Politics

We have narrowed down our list of the best & worst political predictions this year and would like your help in making the final call.

Here are our three final candidates for the Worst Political Prediction of 2012

(1) Conservative Pundits: Romney will win the election in a landslide

We decided that it was unfair to single out any one of these predictions, since they all met the threshold of being spectacularly off-target.

PunditPrediction
Larry KudlowRomney will get 330 electoral votes
Dick MorrisRomney will get 325 electoral votes
Glenn BeckRomney will get 321 electoral votes
George WillRomney will get 321 electoral votes
Michael BaroneRomney will get 315 electoral votes
Wayne Allyn RootRomney will win by 100-120 electoral votes

(2) Chris Matthews: Michele Bachmann will win the GOP nomination

Some have argued that Matthews was joking, but we don’t buy it. Decide for yourself.

(3) Dick Morris: Obama might pull out of the election

This prediction was too hedged to include on his PunditTracker.com profile page, but it was so outrageous — and outrageously wrong — that it justified a spot on this list.

<< As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might “pull a Lyndon Johnson” and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery. His answer: “Yes. It’s possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.”….. if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate such as Mitt Romney, Obama will not be able to rely on partisan animosity to succeed where job approval has failed. And, given all that, he might not even run. >> [Dickmorris.com]

We will announce the “winner” in two weeks, at which time we will also reveal our awards for Best and Worst Pundit of 2012. Coming tomorrow: voting for the Best Political Prediction of 2012.

 

We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.

Best & Worst Election Predictions

November 8, 2012  |  Politics

This is the second of a five-part election recap series.

Best
Michael TomaskyObama wins & Democrats Senate & Republicans House
Jim CramerSenate Results: 53(D), 45(R), 2(I)
Eleanor CliftObama gets more than 300 votes

Comments: Tomasky’s call was made in December 2011, when the odds of that trifecta were much lower.

 

Worst

Larry KudlowRomney will get 330 electoral votes
Dick MorrisRomney will get 325 electoral votes
Glenn BeckRomney will get 321 electoral votes
George WillRomney will get 321 electoral votes
Michael BaroneRomney will get 315 electoral votes
Jim CramerObama will get 440 electoral votes
Wayne Allyn RootRomney will win by 100-120 electoral votes
Dick MorrisRomney will win by 4-8 percentage points
Dick MorrisSenate: 53(R)-47(D)
Dick MorrisRomney will win Pennsylvania
Paul BegalaA third-party candidate will get more than 7% of the popular vote for president
John HeilemannElection will not be declared on November 7. Florida-style recount(s) will occur.
Newt GingrichRepublicans will win Senate
Howard FinemanRepublicans will pick up at least 8 Senate seats

Not one of the pundits we tracked would have correctly predicted the electoral vote outcome.

 

Let’s open it up for discussion. Which of the above was the worst election prediction? (And how did Jim Cramer get the Senate call right when predicting 440 electoral votes for Obama!?)

 

Also in the PT Election Series:

Election Report Card

Worst Election Pundit

Nate Silver vs. Intrade

Updated Political Pundit Rankings

Election Report Card

November 8, 2012  |  Politics

This is the first of a five-part election recap series.

After spending two years cataloging more than 150 election predictions made by various political pundits, now comes the fun part: report card time. 

Here is how the pundits fared, sorted by $1 Yield. For those new to the site, $1 Yield is the core metric we use to judge pundits; it measures the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. We have also included the boldest (most out-of-consensus) prognostication made by each pundit.

Pundit# Calls# Correct$1 YieldBoldest Call
Michael Tomasky32$2.07Obama wins & Democrats win Senate & Republicans win House
Steven Rattner22$1.88Obama wins (290+ electoral vote)
Eleanor Clift54$1.80Senate: 54 Democrats
Chris Matthews22$1.67Joe Manchin/Sherod Brown win
Michelle Goldberg22$1.59Obama wins
Mark Shields33$1.50Whoever wins Ohio wins the eleciton
Robert Reich11$1.27Democrats win Senate
Chris Cillizza64$0.94Senate: 51(D)-47(R)-2(I)
Howard Fineman21$0.85Republicans pick up 8+ Senate seats
Clarence Page21$0.83Obama wins (280)
Cokie Roberts21$0.83Obama wins (294)
Matthew Dowd21$0.83Obama wins (303)
Donna Brazile21$0.83Obama wins (313)
Ezra Klein21$0.83Obama wins (290 or 303)
Ronald Brownstein21$0.83Obama wins (288)
Melissa Harris Perry74$0.81Senate: 52(D)-46(R)-2(I)
Mort Zuckerman53$0.80Obama's Hispanic support falls by 30 points
Juan Williams84$0.71House: 231(R)-204(D)
Karl Rove104$0.64Akin will lose by largest margin in recent history
Bill O'Reilly73$0.62Romney wins New Hampshire
George Will52$0.59Romney wins (321)
Jim Cramer31$0.56Senate: 53(D), 45(R), 2(I)
Larry Sabato31$0.56Senate: 53(D)-47(R)
Paul Begala41$0.42Third-party candidate gets 7% of popular vote
Wayne Allyn Root112$0.22Romney wins popular vote by 5-7 points
Dick Morris172$0.19Romney wins by 4-8 percentage points
Pat Buchanan71$0.18Romney wins all 11 states of the confederacy
Ann Coulter20$0.00Romney wins (273+)
Bill Kristol10$0.00Romney wins
Charles Krauthammer10$0.00Romney wins
Glenn Beck20$0.00Romney wins (321)
John Heilemann10$0.00Election not declared on 11/7; Florida-style recounts
John McLaughlin40$0.00Obama loses Wisconsin
Larry Kudlow30$0.00Romney wins at least 52-48
Michael Barone20$0.00Romney wins (315)
Newt Gingrich40$0.00Romney: 53%+ of popular vote, 300+ electoral
Peggy Noonan10$0.00Romney wins
Rich Lowry20$0.00Akin loses, but by less than 5 points

Note: We are still waiting on a few more outcomes (e.g. final House tallies) and will update the data as these roll in.

While there were a handful of notable predictions that came true — which we will detail in an upcoming post — as a group the pundits performed woefully. Only 8 of the 38 pundits we tracked generated a yield higher than than $1.00. In other words, the majority of the pundits did worse than your “Average Joe.”

Average Pundit Performance (38 tracked)

Hit Rate (# correct calls divided by # calls made) = 41%

$1 Yield = $0.68

The rankings are largely a function of the pundit’s party affiliation, which is a sad commentary on the state of punditry. This is why keeping lifetime track records, as PunditTracker will do, will be critical as far as holding pundits accountable.

 

Coming up in the PT Election Series

Best & Worst Election Predictions

Worst Election Pundit

Nate Silver vs. Intrade

Updated Political Pundit Rankings

Latest Election Predictions (Updated: Tuesday Morning)

November 6, 2012  |  Politics

The election predictions are coming in fast and furious! Submit any last-minute predictions you come across and we will track them.

Here is a sample of some of the recent presidential picks (electoral votes in parentheses) that we are tracking.

Jim CramerObama (440)
Larry KudlowRomney (330)
Dick MorrisRomney (325)
George WillRomney (321)
Glenn BeckRomney (321)
Michael BaroneRomney (315)
Donna BrazileObama (313)
Matthew DowdObama (303)
Newt GingrichRomney (300+)
Juan WilliamsObama (298)
Paul BegalaObama (297)
Cokie RobertsObama (294)
Michael TomaskyObama (294)
Steven RattnerObama (290+)
Melissa Harris-PerryObama (290)
Larry SabatoObama (290)
Ezra KleinObama (290) or Obama (303)
Ronald BrownsteinObama (288)
John McLaughlinRomney (281)
Clarence PageObama (280)
Karl RoveRomney (279+)
Chris CillizzaObama (277)
Ann CoulterRomney (273+)
Mort ZuckermanObama
Pat BuchananRomney
Peggy NoonanRomney
  1. Have a pundit you would like us to track? Or some general feedback on the site? Let us know!