Posts Tagged ‘Glenn Beck’
We have narrowed down our list of the best & worst political predictions this year and would like your help in making the final call.
Here are our three final candidates for the Worst Political Prediction of 2012
(1) Conservative Pundits: Romney will win the election in a landslide
We decided that it was unfair to single out any one of these predictions, since they all met the threshold of being spectacularly off-target.
| Pundit | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Larry Kudlow | Romney will get 330 electoral votes |
| Dick Morris | Romney will get 325 electoral votes |
| Glenn Beck | Romney will get 321 electoral votes |
| George Will | Romney will get 321 electoral votes |
| Michael Barone | Romney will get 315 electoral votes |
| Wayne Allyn Root | Romney will win by 100-120 electoral votes |
(2) Chris Matthews: Michele Bachmann will win the GOP nomination
Some have argued that Matthews was joking, but we don’t buy it. Decide for yourself.
(3) Dick Morris: Obama might pull out of the election
This prediction was too hedged to include on his PunditTracker.com profile page, but it was so outrageous — and outrageously wrong — that it justified a spot on this list.
<< As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might “pull a Lyndon Johnson” and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery. His answer: “Yes. It’s possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.”….. if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate such as Mitt Romney, Obama will not be able to rely on partisan animosity to succeed where job approval has failed. And, given all that, he might not even run. >> [Dickmorris.com]
We will announce the “winner” in two weeks, at which time we will also reveal our awards for Best and Worst Pundit of 2012. Coming tomorrow: voting for the Best Political Prediction of 2012.
We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.
This is the second of a five-part election recap series.
| Michael Tomasky | Obama wins & Democrats Senate & Republicans House |
| Jim Cramer | Senate Results: 53(D), 45(R), 2(I) |
| Eleanor Clift | Obama gets more than 300 votes |
Comments: Tomasky’s call was made in December 2011, when the odds of that trifecta were much lower.
Worst
| Larry Kudlow | Romney will get 330 electoral votes |
| Dick Morris | Romney will get 325 electoral votes |
| Glenn Beck | Romney will get 321 electoral votes |
| George Will | Romney will get 321 electoral votes |
| Michael Barone | Romney will get 315 electoral votes |
| Jim Cramer | Obama will get 440 electoral votes |
| Wayne Allyn Root | Romney will win by 100-120 electoral votes |
| Dick Morris | Romney will win by 4-8 percentage points |
| Dick Morris | Senate: 53(R)-47(D) |
| Dick Morris | Romney will win Pennsylvania |
| Paul Begala | A third-party candidate will get more than 7% of the popular vote for president |
| John Heilemann | Election will not be declared on November 7. Florida-style recount(s) will occur. |
| Newt Gingrich | Republicans will win Senate |
| Howard Fineman | Republicans will pick up at least 8 Senate seats |
Not one of the pundits we tracked would have correctly predicted the electoral vote outcome.
Let’s open it up for discussion. Which of the above was the worst election prediction? (And how did Jim Cramer get the Senate call right when predicting 440 electoral votes for Obama!?)
Also in the PT Election Series:
Updated Political Pundit Rankings
This is the first of a five-part election recap series.
After spending two years cataloging more than 150 election predictions made by various political pundits, now comes the fun part: report card time.
Here is how the pundits fared, sorted by $1 Yield. For those new to the site, $1 Yield is the core metric we use to judge pundits; it measures the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. We have also included the boldest (most out-of-consensus) prognostication made by each pundit.
| Pundit | # Calls | # Correct | $1 Yield | Boldest Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Tomasky | 3 | 2 | $2.07 | Obama wins & Democrats win Senate & Republicans win House |
| Steven Rattner | 2 | 2 | $1.88 | Obama wins (290+ electoral vote) |
| Eleanor Clift | 5 | 4 | $1.80 | Senate: 54 Democrats |
| Chris Matthews | 2 | 2 | $1.67 | Joe Manchin/Sherod Brown win |
| Michelle Goldberg | 2 | 2 | $1.59 | Obama wins |
| Mark Shields | 3 | 3 | $1.50 | Whoever wins Ohio wins the eleciton |
| Robert Reich | 1 | 1 | $1.27 | Democrats win Senate |
| Chris Cillizza | 6 | 4 | $0.94 | Senate: 51(D)-47(R)-2(I) |
| Howard Fineman | 2 | 1 | $0.85 | Republicans pick up 8+ Senate seats |
| Clarence Page | 2 | 1 | $0.83 | Obama wins (280) |
| Cokie Roberts | 2 | 1 | $0.83 | Obama wins (294) |
| Matthew Dowd | 2 | 1 | $0.83 | Obama wins (303) |
| Donna Brazile | 2 | 1 | $0.83 | Obama wins (313) |
| Ezra Klein | 2 | 1 | $0.83 | Obama wins (290 or 303) |
| Ronald Brownstein | 2 | 1 | $0.83 | Obama wins (288) |
| Melissa Harris Perry | 7 | 4 | $0.81 | Senate: 52(D)-46(R)-2(I) |
| Mort Zuckerman | 5 | 3 | $0.80 | Obama's Hispanic support falls by 30 points |
| Juan Williams | 8 | 4 | $0.71 | House: 231(R)-204(D) |
| Karl Rove | 10 | 4 | $0.64 | Akin will lose by largest margin in recent history |
| Bill O'Reilly | 7 | 3 | $0.62 | Romney wins New Hampshire |
| George Will | 5 | 2 | $0.59 | Romney wins (321) |
| Jim Cramer | 3 | 1 | $0.56 | Senate: 53(D), 45(R), 2(I) |
| Larry Sabato | 3 | 1 | $0.56 | Senate: 53(D)-47(R) |
| Paul Begala | 4 | 1 | $0.42 | Third-party candidate gets 7% of popular vote |
| Wayne Allyn Root | 11 | 2 | $0.22 | Romney wins popular vote by 5-7 points |
| Dick Morris | 17 | 2 | $0.19 | Romney wins by 4-8 percentage points |
| Pat Buchanan | 7 | 1 | $0.18 | Romney wins all 11 states of the confederacy |
| Ann Coulter | 2 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins (273+) |
| Bill Kristol | 1 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins |
| Charles Krauthammer | 1 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins |
| Glenn Beck | 2 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins (321) |
| John Heilemann | 1 | 0 | $0.00 | Election not declared on 11/7; Florida-style recounts |
| John McLaughlin | 4 | 0 | $0.00 | Obama loses Wisconsin |
| Larry Kudlow | 3 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins at least 52-48 |
| Michael Barone | 2 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins (315) |
| Newt Gingrich | 4 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney: 53%+ of popular vote, 300+ electoral |
| Peggy Noonan | 1 | 0 | $0.00 | Romney wins |
| Rich Lowry | 2 | 0 | $0.00 | Akin loses, but by less than 5 points |
Note: We are still waiting on a few more outcomes (e.g. final House tallies) and will update the data as these roll in.
While there were a handful of notable predictions that came true — which we will detail in an upcoming post — as a group the pundits performed woefully. Only 8 of the 38 pundits we tracked generated a yield higher than than $1.00. In other words, the majority of the pundits did worse than your “Average Joe.”
Average Pundit Performance (38 tracked)
Hit Rate (# correct calls divided by # calls made) = 41%
$1 Yield = $0.68
The rankings are largely a function of the pundit’s party affiliation, which is a sad commentary on the state of punditry. This is why keeping lifetime track records, as PunditTracker will do, will be critical as far as holding pundits accountable.
Coming up in the PT Election Series
Best & Worst Election Predictions
Updated Political Pundit Rankings
The election predictions are coming in fast and furious! Submit any last-minute predictions you come across and we will track them.
Here is a sample of some of the recent presidential picks (electoral votes in parentheses) that we are tracking.
| Jim Cramer | Obama (440) |
| Larry Kudlow | Romney (330) |
| Dick Morris | Romney (325) |
| George Will | Romney (321) |
| Glenn Beck | Romney (321) |
| Michael Barone | Romney (315) |
| Donna Brazile | Obama (313) |
| Matthew Dowd | Obama (303) |
| Newt Gingrich | Romney (300+) |
| Juan Williams | Obama (298) |
| Paul Begala | Obama (297) |
| Cokie Roberts | Obama (294) |
| Michael Tomasky | Obama (294) |
| Steven Rattner | Obama (290+) |
| Melissa Harris-Perry | Obama (290) |
| Larry Sabato | Obama (290) |
| Ezra Klein | Obama (290) or Obama (303) |
| Ronald Brownstein | Obama (288) |
| John McLaughlin | Romney (281) |
| Clarence Page | Obama (280) |
| Karl Rove | Romney (279+) |
| Chris Cillizza | Obama (277) |
| Ann Coulter | Romney (273+) |
| Mort Zuckerman | Obama |
| Pat Buchanan | Romney |
| Peggy Noonan | Romney |
