(2) Chris Matthews: Michele Bachmann will win the GOP nomination
Some have argued that Matthews was joking, but we don’t buy it. Decide for yourself.
(3) Dick Morris: Obama might pull out of the election
This prediction was too hedged to include on his PunditTracker.com profile page, but it was so outrageous — and outrageously wrong — that it justified a spot on this list.
<< As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might “pull a Lyndon Johnson” and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery. His answer: “Yes. It’s possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.”….. if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate such as Mitt Romney, Obama will not be able to rely on partisan animosity to succeed where job approval has failed. And, given all that, he might not even run. >> [Dickmorris.com]
We will announce the “winner” in two weeks, at which time we will also reveal our awards for Best and Worst Pundit of 2012. Coming tomorrow: voting for the Best Political Prediction of 2012.
We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.
Let’s open it up for discussion. Which of the above was the worst election prediction? (And how did Jim Cramer get the Senate call right when predicting 440 electoral votes for Obama!?)
This is the first of a five-part election recap series.
After spending two years cataloging more than 150 election predictions made by various political pundits, now comes the fun part: report card time.
Here is how the pundits fared, sorted by $1 Yield. For those new to the site, $1 Yield is the core metric we use to judge pundits; it measures the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. We have also included the boldest (most out-of-consensus) prognostication made by each pundit.
Note: We are still waiting on a few more outcomes (e.g. final House tallies) and will update the data as these roll in.
While there were a handful of notable predictions that came true — which we will detail in an upcoming post — as a group the pundits performed woefully. Only 8 of the 38 pundits we tracked generated a yield higher than than $1.00. In other words, the majority of the pundits did worse than your “Average Joe.”
Average Pundit Performance (38 tracked)
Hit Rate (# correct calls divided by # calls made) = 41%
$1 Yield = $0.68
The rankings are largely a function of the pundit’s party affiliation, which is a sad commentary on the state of punditry. This is why keeping lifetime track records, as PunditTracker will do, will be critical as far as holding pundits accountable.
With Election Day less than one week away, let’s take a snapshot of how the political pundits we track are performing.
The following rankings are based on our “$1 Yield” metric, which calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls. A $1.00 yield, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions have been no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. Pundits with at least 25 graded calls receive an official grade on PunditTracker.com; for context, yields above $1.10 constitute an A grade, while those below $0.90 equate to an F.
As a collective group, the pundits have made more than 200 calls and have generated a yield of $0.95 (D+ grade), meaning that they are performing worse than your “Average Joe.”
We will post updated rankings following election day. With more than 90 predictions slated to come due, we are likely to see major changes in the grades on November 7.
