Posts Tagged ‘Dick Morris’

The Worst Pundit of 2012

December 20, 2012  |  Politics

Are we piling on? Perhaps. But given the following, was there really any other choice?

 

Dick Morris                     Grade: F

Click here for his full PunditTracker Profile

 

 

 

 

 

As a reminder, the Yield incorporates how bold predictions are by calculating the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s calls, based on consensus odds at the time. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time.

In other words, if you bet $1 on each of Morris’ calls in a virtual political betting market, you would have lost 70% of your money.

For a full breakdown of Morris’ predictions, including the ‘boldness’ of each, click here.

We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.

Vote: Worst Political Prediction of 2012

December 5, 2012  |  Politics

We have narrowed down our list of the best & worst political predictions this year and would like your help in making the final call.

Here are our three final candidates for the Worst Political Prediction of 2012

(1) Conservative Pundits: Romney will win the election in a landslide

We decided that it was unfair to single out any one of these predictions, since they all met the threshold of being spectacularly off-target.

PunditPrediction
Larry KudlowRomney will get 330 electoral votes
Dick MorrisRomney will get 325 electoral votes
Glenn BeckRomney will get 321 electoral votes
George WillRomney will get 321 electoral votes
Michael BaroneRomney will get 315 electoral votes
Wayne Allyn RootRomney will win by 100-120 electoral votes

(2) Chris Matthews: Michele Bachmann will win the GOP nomination

Some have argued that Matthews was joking, but we don’t buy it. Decide for yourself.

(3) Dick Morris: Obama might pull out of the election

This prediction was too hedged to include on his PunditTracker.com profile page, but it was so outrageous — and outrageously wrong — that it justified a spot on this list.

<< As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might “pull a Lyndon Johnson” and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery. His answer: “Yes. It’s possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.”….. if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate such as Mitt Romney, Obama will not be able to rely on partisan animosity to succeed where job approval has failed. And, given all that, he might not even run. >> [Dickmorris.com]

We will announce the “winner” in two weeks, at which time we will also reveal our awards for Best and Worst Pundit of 2012. Coming tomorrow: voting for the Best Political Prediction of 2012.

 

We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.

Worst Election Pundit: Dick Morris

November 8, 2012  |  Politics

This is the third of a five-part election recap series.

Our report card revealed that pundits as a group put up an awful showing this election season. But one pundit truly stood out from the heap, both in terms of the sheer number of predictions he got wrong as well as the conviction of those calls.

That pundit is Dick Morris.

Some may already be familiar with the egg on Morris’ face thanks to his appearance on The O’Reilly Factor tonight and the mea culpa on his own website, in which he explains why he got the presidential race so wrong.

But, as you can see from the table below, it was more than just the presidency. Morris also struck out on the Senate result and multiple other races.

PredictionDate MadeOutcome
Romney will get 325 electoral votes11/05/12FALSE
Romney will win by 4-8 percentage points10/23/12FALSE
Senate: 53(R)-47(D)10/30/12FALSE
Romney will win Michigan10/23/12FALSE
Romney will win Pennsylvania10/23/12FALSE
Romney will win 300+ electoral votes10/23/12FALSE
Romney will win Nevada10/19/12FALSE
Romney will win Wisconsin10/23/12FALSE
Obama will lose election02/27/12FALSE
Romney will win New Hampshire10/19/12FALSE
Romney will win Ohio10/19/12FALSE
Bill Nelson will lose re-election (FL Senate)03/22/12FALSE
Obama will lose Missouri in election03/27/12TRUE
Republicans will take North Dakota Senate seat03/22/12FALSE
Democrats will lose the senate09/21/11FALSE
Obama will lose Florida 3/27/12FALSE
Republicans will take Nebraska Senate seat03/22/12TRUE

The outcome

2 of 17 predictions correct (12% hit rate)

$1 Yield = $0.20

 

This brings Morris’ overall track record since we have tracked him to:

6 of 30 predictions correct (20% hit rate)

$1 Yield = $0.31

 

In other words, if you bet $1 on each of Morris’ calls in a virtual political betting market, you would have lost 70% of your money.

This train wreck raises questions about the viability of Morris and other campaign managers as credible pundits going forward. Are they not simply partisans masquerading as analysts (calling Paul Begala, et al.)?

We would like to give O’Reilly credit for his performance last night. Unlike many hosts, he cataloged Morris’ boldest calls and called him out the day after his calls came due. And Morris isn’t just any pundit – he’s a regular on the show. That kind of transparency is much needed in the world of punditry.

 

Also in the PT Election Series

Election Report Card

Best & Worst Election Predictions

Nate Silver vs. Intrade

Updated Political Pundit Rankings

Best & Worst Election Predictions

November 8, 2012  |  Politics

This is the second of a five-part election recap series.

Best
Michael TomaskyObama wins & Democrats Senate & Republicans House
Jim CramerSenate Results: 53(D), 45(R), 2(I)
Eleanor CliftObama gets more than 300 votes

Comments: Tomasky’s call was made in December 2011, when the odds of that trifecta were much lower.

 

Worst

Larry KudlowRomney will get 330 electoral votes
Dick MorrisRomney will get 325 electoral votes
Glenn BeckRomney will get 321 electoral votes
George WillRomney will get 321 electoral votes
Michael BaroneRomney will get 315 electoral votes
Jim CramerObama will get 440 electoral votes
Wayne Allyn RootRomney will win by 100-120 electoral votes
Dick MorrisRomney will win by 4-8 percentage points
Dick MorrisSenate: 53(R)-47(D)
Dick MorrisRomney will win Pennsylvania
Paul BegalaA third-party candidate will get more than 7% of the popular vote for president
John HeilemannElection will not be declared on November 7. Florida-style recount(s) will occur.
Newt GingrichRepublicans will win Senate
Howard FinemanRepublicans will pick up at least 8 Senate seats

Not one of the pundits we tracked would have correctly predicted the electoral vote outcome.

 

Let’s open it up for discussion. Which of the above was the worst election prediction? (And how did Jim Cramer get the Senate call right when predicting 440 electoral votes for Obama!?)

 

Also in the PT Election Series:

Election Report Card

Worst Election Pundit

Nate Silver vs. Intrade

Updated Political Pundit Rankings

Election Report Card

November 8, 2012  |  Politics

This is the first of a five-part election recap series.

After spending two years cataloging more than 150 election predictions made by various political pundits, now comes the fun part: report card time. 

Here is how the pundits fared, sorted by $1 Yield. For those new to the site, $1 Yield is the core metric we use to judge pundits; it measures the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. We have also included the boldest (most out-of-consensus) prognostication made by each pundit.

Pundit# Calls# Correct$1 YieldBoldest Call
Michael Tomasky32$2.07Obama wins & Democrats win Senate & Republicans win House
Steven Rattner22$1.88Obama wins (290+ electoral vote)
Eleanor Clift54$1.80Senate: 54 Democrats
Chris Matthews22$1.67Joe Manchin/Sherod Brown win
Michelle Goldberg22$1.59Obama wins
Mark Shields33$1.50Whoever wins Ohio wins the eleciton
Robert Reich11$1.27Democrats win Senate
Chris Cillizza64$0.94Senate: 51(D)-47(R)-2(I)
Howard Fineman21$0.85Republicans pick up 8+ Senate seats
Clarence Page21$0.83Obama wins (280)
Cokie Roberts21$0.83Obama wins (294)
Matthew Dowd21$0.83Obama wins (303)
Donna Brazile21$0.83Obama wins (313)
Ezra Klein21$0.83Obama wins (290 or 303)
Ronald Brownstein21$0.83Obama wins (288)
Melissa Harris Perry74$0.81Senate: 52(D)-46(R)-2(I)
Mort Zuckerman53$0.80Obama's Hispanic support falls by 30 points
Juan Williams84$0.71House: 231(R)-204(D)
Karl Rove104$0.64Akin will lose by largest margin in recent history
Bill O'Reilly73$0.62Romney wins New Hampshire
George Will52$0.59Romney wins (321)
Jim Cramer31$0.56Senate: 53(D), 45(R), 2(I)
Larry Sabato31$0.56Senate: 53(D)-47(R)
Paul Begala41$0.42Third-party candidate gets 7% of popular vote
Wayne Allyn Root112$0.22Romney wins popular vote by 5-7 points
Dick Morris172$0.19Romney wins by 4-8 percentage points
Pat Buchanan71$0.18Romney wins all 11 states of the confederacy
Ann Coulter20$0.00Romney wins (273+)
Bill Kristol10$0.00Romney wins
Charles Krauthammer10$0.00Romney wins
Glenn Beck20$0.00Romney wins (321)
John Heilemann10$0.00Election not declared on 11/7; Florida-style recounts
John McLaughlin40$0.00Obama loses Wisconsin
Larry Kudlow30$0.00Romney wins at least 52-48
Michael Barone20$0.00Romney wins (315)
Newt Gingrich40$0.00Romney: 53%+ of popular vote, 300+ electoral
Peggy Noonan10$0.00Romney wins
Rich Lowry20$0.00Akin loses, but by less than 5 points

Note: We are still waiting on a few more outcomes (e.g. final House tallies) and will update the data as these roll in.

While there were a handful of notable predictions that came true — which we will detail in an upcoming post — as a group the pundits performed woefully. Only 8 of the 38 pundits we tracked generated a yield higher than than $1.00. In other words, the majority of the pundits did worse than your “Average Joe.”

Average Pundit Performance (38 tracked)

Hit Rate (# correct calls divided by # calls made) = 41%

$1 Yield = $0.68

The rankings are largely a function of the pundit’s party affiliation, which is a sad commentary on the state of punditry. This is why keeping lifetime track records, as PunditTracker will do, will be critical as far as holding pundits accountable.

 

Coming up in the PT Election Series

Best & Worst Election Predictions

Worst Election Pundit

Nate Silver vs. Intrade

Updated Political Pundit Rankings

Latest Election Predictions (Updated: Tuesday Morning)

November 6, 2012  |  Politics

The election predictions are coming in fast and furious! Submit any last-minute predictions you come across and we will track them.

Here is a sample of some of the recent presidential picks (electoral votes in parentheses) that we are tracking.

Jim CramerObama (440)
Larry KudlowRomney (330)
Dick MorrisRomney (325)
George WillRomney (321)
Glenn BeckRomney (321)
Michael BaroneRomney (315)
Donna BrazileObama (313)
Matthew DowdObama (303)
Newt GingrichRomney (300+)
Juan WilliamsObama (298)
Paul BegalaObama (297)
Cokie RobertsObama (294)
Michael TomaskyObama (294)
Steven RattnerObama (290+)
Melissa Harris-PerryObama (290)
Larry SabatoObama (290)
Ezra KleinObama (290) or Obama (303)
Ronald BrownsteinObama (288)
John McLaughlinRomney (281)
Clarence PageObama (280)
Karl RoveRomney (279+)
Chris CillizzaObama (277)
Ann CoulterRomney (273+)
Mort ZuckermanObama
Pat BuchananRomney
Peggy NoonanRomney

Ranking the Political Pundits

October 31, 2012  |  Politics

With Election Day less than one week away, let’s take a snapshot of how the political pundits we track are performing.

The following rankings are based on our “$1 Yield” metric, which calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls.  A $1.00 yield, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions have been no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. Pundits with at least 25 graded calls receive an official grade on PunditTracker.com; for context, yields above $1.10 constitute an A grade, while those below $0.90 equate to an F.

 

PunditTracked Since# Graded# CorrectHit Rate$1 Yield
James CarvilleMar 201111100%$3.85
Bill KristolDec 20106467%$1.65
Bill O'ReillyMar 20114375%$1.25
Charles KrauthammerMar 20117571%$1.18
John HeilemannFeb 20114375%$1.14
Karl RoveJun 20117686%$1.12
Clarence PageApr 20119667%$1.08
David BrooksFeb 20119778%$1.06
Mort ZuckermanOct 201016850%$1.03
Pat Buchanan (B-)Oct 2010301963%$1.03
John McLaughlin (C+)Oct 2010311755%$1.01
Rich LowryOct 20109556%$0.91
Mark ShieldsMay 20116583%$0.90
George WillJan 20116467%$0.86
Eleanor Clift (F)Oct 2010271452%$0.74
Gloria BorgerDec 20106350%$0.73
Michelle GoldbergDec 20112150%$0.68
Dick MorrisMar 201112433%$0.52
Michael TomaskyDec 20114125%$0.34
Robert ReichDec 20104125%$0.33
Chris MatthewsJan 2011500%$0.00
Paul BegalaDec 2011200%$0.00

 

As a collective group, the pundits have made more than 200 calls and have generated a yield of $0.95 (D+ grade), meaning that they are performing worse than your “Average Joe.”

We will post updated rankings following election day. With more than 90 predictions slated to come due, we are likely to see major changes in the grades on November 7.

 

Think you can predict better than these political “experts”? Here’s your chance to show the world… and win prizes while doing so! Learn more by clicking here or go straight to PunditTracker.com to start making predictions now.

 

Weekly Prediction Roundup (10/25/12)

October 25, 2012  |  Politics, Sports

 

New Calls (Taking Votes Now)

PunditPrediction
Dick Morris (Politics)US will announce nuclear inspection deal w/Iran over before 11/6
Dick Morris (Politics)Romney will win Ohio
Dick Morris (Politics)Romney will win New Hampshire
Dick Morris (Politics)Romney will win Nevada
Pat Buchanan (Politics)Romney will win Florida
Pat Buchanan (Politics)Whoever wins Ohio wins the election

 

Graded Calls

PunditPredictionOutcome
Clarence Page (Politics)Obama will win at least two of the three debatesTRUE
John McLaughlin (Politics)Romney will win two of the three debatesFALSE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Cardinals (+6.5) cover against VikingsFALSE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Titans (+3.5) cover against BillsTRUE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Cowboys (-2.5) cover against PanthersTRUE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Redskins (+6) cover against GiantsTRUE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Steelers (-1.5) cover against BengalsTRUE

Weekly Prediction Roundup (10/18/12)

October 18, 2012  |  Finance, Politics, Sports

 

New Calls (Taking Votes Now)

PunditPrediction
Michael Belkin (Finance)The U.S. economy is entering a recession
Michael Belkin (Finance)Dow Jones Index will fall 30% over the next 15 months
Larry Kudlow (Finance)Romney will win election by at least 52-48
Art Hogan (Finance)Dow Jones will rally 1000 points in the 3 days after the election
Mort Zuckerman (Politics)Romney will win the election
Eleanor Clift (Politics)Obama will win the election
John McLaughlin (Politics)Romney will win the election
Pat Buchanan (Politics)Romney will win Florida
Dick Morris (Politics)Romney will win the election in a landslide

 

Graded Calls

PunditPredictionOutcome
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Falcons (-9) cover against RaidersFALSE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Lions (+3.5) cover against EaglesTRUE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Bills (+4.5) cover against CardinalsTRUE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Jets (-3) cover against ColtsTRUE
Colin Cowherd (Sports)NFL: Cowboys (+3.5) cover against RavensTRUE

 

 

The Veepstakes Postmortem

August 13, 2012  |  Politics

Here is a guest post from a friend of PunditTracker.

Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan Saturday as his vice presidential running mate. In opting for the seven‐term Wisconsin Congressman, the Republican standard‐bearer has in the words of Politico’s Mike Allen offered, “A RACE RESET.”

As the former Massachusetts Governor unveiled his selection aboard the USS Wisconsin, Romney closed by saying, “Join me in welcoming the next president of the United States.” He then laughingly corrected the slip of tongue, saying he had been known to make a mistake or two, “but I didn’t make one with this guy.”

One can’t help but wonder if we will be hearing a similar mea culpa from the media elite? In what is becoming a quadrennial trend, none of the dozen pundits we track that weighed in with a definitive, singular call selected Paul Ryan as Romney’s eventual running mate.

1. Paul Begala: Rob Portman (link)
2. Mark Halperin: Rob Portman (link)
3. Charles Krauthammer: Marco Rubio (link)
4. Chris Matthews: Marco Rubio (link) or Rick Perry (link)
5. Robert Reich: Marco Rubio (link)
6. Dick Morris: Marco Rubio (link)
7. Eleanor Clift: Rob Portman (link)
8. John McLaughlin: Rob Portman (link)
9. Mark Shields: Rob Portman (link)
10. Michael Tomasky: Susana Martinez (link)
11. Rich Lowry: Rob Portman or Bob McDonnell (link)
12. Mort Zuckerman: Rob Portman (link)

Of course, history offers ample evidence of predictive under‐performance in the vice presidential selection. On the GOP side, Quayle, Kemp, Cheney and Palin were largely no‐shows on the insider lists of what Time’s Mark Halperin calls the “Gang of 500.” The Ryan selection simply continues the trend.

The prediction markets, however, fared little better. While much was made last Friday of what the Associated Press called “an incredibly irregular spike in volume” for Ryan, Intrade had Rob Portman as the most likely candidate at midday on August 8 with a 36% chance of selection. It placed the Ohio Senator well ahead of Pawlenty (17.1%) and Rubio (12.3%). Ryan was in single digits at just 9.5%.

Thus, neither the Wisdom of Crowds nor the musings of the media elite have shown much predictive value. And those twin failings beg the question: what makes speculation around vice presidential selection so hard? Three potential drivers merit postmortem consideration:

  • Information Asymmetry: Campaigns go to extraordinary lengths to conceal their intentions, sending Paul Ryan into secondary airports wearing ball caps and sunglasses. It creates the political equivalent of what investment gurus regularly cite as information asymmetry. As Politico’s Allen wrote in the days leading up to the selection, “We know less than ever about the real state of play. We should not be surprised to be surprised.” But amid the knowledge gap, the demands of the 24×7 news cycle continue and the abhorred vacuum must be filled. It leads to predictive commentary that is largely absent tangible input from the campaign.
  • Recency Bias: A second potential dynamic may be what academicians call recency bias. In lay terms, it is the exercise of using our recent experiences as the baseline for what will happen in the future. In the wake of the 2008 election, the consensus among Halperin’s Gang of 500 was that the Palin selection adversely impacted McCain. This recent view, in turn, may have informed a bias that the pendulum had swung four years on toward a “safe choice” like Rob Portman.
  • Herd Mentality: Finally, the herd mentality is the highly documented phenomenon of groups acting in the same fashion. In Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes, we periodically review the lessons of history amid frantic buying or in the wake of furious selling.  As the speculative frenzy grew to something akin to U.S. housing in 2006, it may be that a framing emerged. The safe choice of Portman or Pawlenty was framed with the bold pick of Rubio or Christie. This construct held through the summer, with Ryan only emerging within the latter “bold” camp as players like Christie came to be seen as less plausible.

Finally, amid thousands of column inches, it is interesting to contemplate what was largely unexplored. We heard little about Romney’s executive decision‐making and how it might inform approach. We heard little about how the former Harvard MBA and Chief Executive approached talent development at Bain portfolio companies. We heard little about how he handled succession planning as he began to contemplate future endeavors beyond Bain. Exploration here may have elevated predictive success, offering a tell that he was looking to give a “stretch assignment” to someone who very much looked the CEO‐in‐waiting Saturday in Norfolk.

In the end, whether the Ryan selection truly brings “A RACE RESET” remains to be seen. But it certainly was a decision that few predicted with important potential implications for the next 85 days.

 

Donald Trigg is a “friend of PunditTracker.” He spent a decade in public policy at the national level, including his work on the 2000 Bush for President campaign in Austin, Texas.

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