Reviewing Gary Shilling’s Predictions for 2012

December 10, 2012  |  Finance

We started tracking Gary Shilling’s annual predictions in 2012 (click here for his PunditTracker profile page), grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective).

Let’s see how his calls are shaping up so far this year:

PredictionBoldnessOutcomeComments
S&P 500 to 800 AND Earnings to $80 HighFALSES&P at 1400+, Earnings at $100+
China GDP growth of 5-6%HighFALSE7.7% YTD
Recession in US AND UK AND Eurozone Medium-HighTBDUS will be known in 2013
Emerging market bonds fallMedium-HighFALSEUp double digit %
30-Year Treasury rates fall to 2.5% AND 10-Year to 1.5% Medium-HighTRUEBoth targets were hit in July
DJ US Select Home Construction Index fallsMediumFALSE+67%
DJ US Select Financial Sector Index AND Regional Bank IndexMediumFALSE+22% and +14%, respectively
MSCI EM Stock Index fallsMediumFALSE+13%
CRB broad commodity index fallsMediumTBD+4%
S&P Consumer Staples outperformsMediumTBD+11% vs +13% for S&P
Dollar appreciates against EuroMediumTBDVirtually Flat
AMEX Computer Technology Index risesMedium-LowTRUE+9%
Dow Jones US Select Oil and Exploration Index risesMedium-LowTBD+2.5%
Dow Jones Select Health Care Providers Index risesMedium-LowTRUE+15%

Several of Shilling’s predictions will go down to the wire. His contrarian stance on US Treasuries paid off once again but was offset by some predictions that were way off-target, including his bearish takes on both the financial sector and emerging markets. Shilling’s prediction that the home construction index would fall — it is up 67% year-to-date — will go down as one of the worst of the year.

Final Tally: 3 correct, 6 incorrect, 5 undecided; $0.69 yield.

We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.

 

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