We started tracking Gary Shilling’s annual predictions in 2012 (click here for his PunditTracker profile page), grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective).
Let’s see how his calls are shaping up so far this year:
| Prediction | Boldness | Outcome | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 to 800 AND Earnings to $80 | High | FALSE | S&P at 1400+, Earnings at $100+ |
| China GDP growth of 5-6% | High | FALSE | 7.7% YTD |
| Recession in US AND UK AND Eurozone | Medium-High | TBD | US will be known in 2013 |
| Emerging market bonds fall | Medium-High | FALSE | Up double digit % |
| 30-Year Treasury rates fall to 2.5% AND 10-Year to 1.5% | Medium-High | TRUE | Both targets were hit in July |
| DJ US Select Home Construction Index falls | Medium | FALSE | +67% |
| DJ US Select Financial Sector Index AND Regional Bank Index | Medium | FALSE | +22% and +14%, respectively |
| MSCI EM Stock Index falls | Medium | FALSE | +13% |
| CRB broad commodity index falls | Medium | TBD | +4% |
| S&P Consumer Staples outperforms | Medium | TBD | +11% vs +13% for S&P |
| Dollar appreciates against Euro | Medium | TBD | Virtually Flat |
| AMEX Computer Technology Index rises | Medium-Low | TRUE | +9% |
| Dow Jones US Select Oil and Exploration Index rises | Medium-Low | TBD | +2.5% |
| Dow Jones Select Health Care Providers Index rises | Medium-Low | TRUE | +15% |
Several of Shilling’s predictions will go down to the wire. His contrarian stance on US Treasuries paid off once again but was offset by some predictions that were way off-target, including his bearish takes on both the financial sector and emerging markets. Shilling’s prediction that the home construction index would fall — it is up 67% year-to-date — will go down as one of the worst of the year.
Final Tally: 3 correct, 6 incorrect, 5 undecided; $0.69 yield.
We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.
