Reviewing Byron Wien’s Predictions for 2012

December 10, 2012  |  Finance

UPDATE: To see our grade for Wien’s 2013 predictions, click here. Note that Wien is up for “Worst Financial Prediction of 2013″ — click here to cast your vote.

 

We started tracking Byron Wien’s annual predictions in 2010 (click here for his PunditTracker profile page), grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective). Over the past two years, Wien has gotten 4 of his 17 (24%) calls correct, which after adjusting for boldness, amounted to a woeful $0.67 yield.

As a reminder, the yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s predictions, based on consensus odds at the time. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time.

Let’s see if Wien’s predictions for 2012 are shaping up any better.

PredictionBoldnessOutcomeComments
Obama runs vs. Romney AND Democrats win House AND lose SenateHighFALSEOnly first part was correct
Eurozone doesn't break up AND recession in EuropeMediumTRUE
Congress finds a way to cut $1.2 trillion over ten yearsMedium-HighFALSE
China AND India AND and Brazil indices appreciate 15%+Medium-HighFALSEBrazil market down 7% YTD
US Real GDP growth >3% AND Unemployment <8%Medium-HighFALSEUS GDP growth at 2% YTD
Oil declines to $85MediumTRUEOil dipped below $80 in summer
S&P 500 exceeds 1400MediumTRUE
Bashar al-Assad's rule over Syria endsMediumFALSEStill a remote possibility

 

Final Tally: 3 of 8 predictions correct, $0.85 yield.

We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.

 

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