We started tracking Byron Wien’s annual predictions in 2010 (click here for his PunditTracker profile page), grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective). Over the past two years, Wien has gotten 4 of his 17 (24%) calls correct, which after adjusting for boldness, amounted to a woeful $0.67 yield.
As a reminder, the yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s predictions, based on consensus odds at the time. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time.
Let’s see if Wien’s predictions for 2012 are shaping up any better.
| Prediction | Boldness | Outcome | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obama runs vs. Romney AND Democrats win House AND lose Senate | High | FALSE | Only first part was correct |
| Eurozone doesn't break up AND recession in Europe | Medium | TRUE | |
| Congress finds a way to cut $1.2 trillion over ten years | Medium-High | FALSE | |
| China AND India AND and Brazil indices appreciate 15%+ | Medium-High | FALSE | Brazil market down 7% YTD |
| US Real GDP growth >3% AND Unemployment <8% | Medium-High | FALSE | US GDP growth at 2% YTD |
| Oil declines to $85 | Medium | TRUE | Oil dipped below $80 in summer |
| S&P 500 exceeds 1400 | Medium | TRUE | |
| Bashar al-Assad's rule over Syria ends | Medium | FALSE | Still a remote possibility |
Final Tally: 3 of 8 predictions correct, $0.85 yield.
We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on PunditTracker.com. With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes.
