We started tracking Bob Doll’s annual predictions in 2010 (click here for his PunditTracker profile page), grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective). Over the past two years, Doll has been 8 for 16 with his calls, which after adjusting for boldness, amounted to a mediocre $0.81 yield. As a reminder, the yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s predictions, based on consensus odds at the time. A yield of exactly $1.00, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions were no better or worse than the consensus view at the time.
Here is how his 2012 predictions are shaping up so far.
Republicans capture the Senate and retain the House and defeat President Obama (Medium-High Boldness)
- FALSE: 0/1, Running Yield = $0.00
Treasury rates rise and quality spreads fall (Medium-High Boldness)
- Treasury rates have declined
- FALSE: 0/2; Running Yield = $0.00
S&P earnings will be below $108 in 202 (Medium Boldness)
- TRUE: 1/3; Running Yield = $0.83
S&P will end 2012 at 1350+ (Medium Boldness)
- S&P currently at 1418
- TRUE: 2/4; Running Yield = $1.18
Healthcare and Energy outperform Utilities and Financials (Medium Boldness)
- Financials are the best performer of the group
- FALSE: 2/5; Running Yield = $0.94
US stocks outperform non-US stocks (Medium-Low Boldness)
- S&P is currently up 13% versus 11% for the MSCI ACWI ex-US
- TRUE (but could change): 3/6; Running Yield = $1.06
- Based on current estimates, China and India will contribute 40-45% of global growth this year.
- FALSE (but could change): 3/7; Running Yield = $0.91
- With the economy growing at roughly 2% over the first three quarters, this will come down to Q4.
- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
- While dividends are indeed at an all-time high, buybacks are trending well below levels seen in 2007
- FALSE: 3/8; Running Yield = $0.80
Final Tally: 3 of 8 predictions correct w/one undecided; $1 Yield = $0.80.
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