Ranking the Political Pundits

October 31, 2012  |  Politics

With Election Day less than one week away, let’s take a snapshot of how the political pundits we track are performing.

The following rankings are based on our “$1 Yield” metric, which calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using consensus odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s calls.  A $1.00 yield, for instance, means the pundit’s predictions have been no better or worse than the consensus view at the time. Pundits with at least 25 graded calls receive an official grade on PunditTracker.com; for context, yields above $1.10 constitute an A grade, while those below $0.90 equate to an F.


PunditTracked Since# Graded# CorrectHit Rate$1 Yield
James CarvilleMar 201111100%$3.85
Bill KristolDec 20106467%$1.65
Bill O'ReillyMar 20114375%$1.25
Charles KrauthammerMar 20117571%$1.18
John HeilemannFeb 20114375%$1.14
Karl RoveJun 20117686%$1.12
Clarence PageApr 20119667%$1.08
David BrooksFeb 20119778%$1.06
Mort ZuckermanOct 201016850%$1.03
Pat Buchanan (B-)Oct 2010301963%$1.03
John McLaughlin (C+)Oct 2010311755%$1.01
Rich LowryOct 20109556%$0.91
Mark ShieldsMay 20116583%$0.90
George WillJan 20116467%$0.86
Eleanor Clift (F)Oct 2010271452%$0.74
Gloria BorgerDec 20106350%$0.73
Michelle GoldbergDec 20112150%$0.68
Dick MorrisMar 201112433%$0.52
Michael TomaskyDec 20114125%$0.34
Robert ReichDec 20104125%$0.33
Chris MatthewsJan 2011500%$0.00
Paul BegalaDec 2011200%$0.00


As a collective group, the pundits have made more than 200 calls and have generated a yield of $0.95 (D+ grade), meaning that they are performing worse than your “Average Joe.”

We will post updated rankings following election day. With more than 90 predictions slated to come due, we are likely to see major changes in the grades on November 7.


Think you can predict better than these political “experts”? Here’s your chance to show the world… and win prizes while doing so! Learn more by clicking here or go straight to PunditTracker.com to start making predictions now.





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