A: No one.
Well, at least none of the 58 baseball pundits we tracked from ESPN and Sports Illustrated. While eight pundits picked the Tigers to win the American League and six picked to Giants to win the National League, not a single one picked the combination. Note that both teams were among the favorites to win their respective pennants, with Vegas handicapping the Tigers at 3-to-1 odds and the Giants at 7-to-1.
MLB Preseason Predictions (2012)
| Pundit | AL | NL |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Mass, ESPN | Detroit | Atlanta |
| Colin Cowherd, ESPN | Detroit | St. Louis |
| Jayson Stark, ESPN | Detroit | St. Louis |
| John Kruk, ESPN | Detroit | Milwaukee |
| Jorge Arangure Jr., ESPN | Detroit | Atlanta |
| Kevin Goldstein, ESPN | Detroit | Cincinnati |
| Peter Pascarelli, ESPN | Detroit | Arizona |
| Tony Jackson, ESPN | Detroit | Philadelphia |
| Albert Chen, SI | Texas | San Francisco |
| Enrique Rojas, ESPN | LA Angels | San Francisco |
| Jim Caple, ESPN | LA Angels | San Francisco |
| Stephania Bell, ESPN | Tampa Bay | San Francisco |
| Stephen Cannella, SI | LA Angels | San Francisco |
| Tom Verducci, SI | LA Angels | San Francisco |
| Aaron Boone, ESPN | LA Angels | Philadelphia |
| Adam Rubin, ESPN | NY Yankees | Washington |
| Amanda Rykoff, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Andrew Marchand, ESPN | Texas | Philadelphia |
| Barry Larkin, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Ben Reiter, SI | Texas | Miami |
| Buster Olney, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Arizona |
| Carolina Guillen, ESPN | LA Angels | Philadelphia |
| Christina Kahrl, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Cliff Corcoran, SI | NY Yankees | St. Louis |
| Curt Schilling, ESPN | LA Angels | Philadelphia |
| Dan Shulman, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Dan Szymborski, ESPN | Texas | Philadelphia |
| Dave Cameron, ESPN | NY Yankees | St. Louis |
| David Kull, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| David Schoenfield, ESPN | Texas | Milwaukee |
| Doug Glanville, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Doug Padilla, ESPN | LA Angels | Philadelphia |
| Eric Karabell, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Philadelphia |
| Jason Churchill, ESPN | Texas | Cincinnati |
| Javier Maymi, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Miami |
| Jerry Crasnick, ESPN | Texas | Arizona |
| Jim Bowden, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Joe Lemire, SI | Texas | Philadelphia |
| Jon Sciambi, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Philadelphia |
| Jonah Keri, ESPN | NY Yankees | Philadelphia |
| Karl Ravech, ESPN | Boston | Arizona |
| Keith Law, ESPN | Texas | Atlanta |
| Mark Mulder, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Mark Saxon, ESPN | LA Angels | St. Louis |
| Mark Simon, ESPN | LA Angels | St. Louis |
| Marty Bernoski, ESPN | Texas | Arizona |
| Matt Meyers, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Arizona |
| Matt Szefc, ESPN | NY Yankees | Philadelphia |
| Matthew Berry, ESPN | LA Angels | Philadelphia |
| Mel Antonen, SI | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Orel Hershiser, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Arizona |
| Pedro Gomez, ESPN | LA Angels | Cincinnati |
| Richard Durrett, ESPN | Texas | Philadelphia |
| Rick Sutcliffe, ESPN | Texas | Washington |
| Steve Berthiaume, ESPN | LA Angels | Arizona |
| Ted Keith, SI | NY Yankees | Philadelphia |
| Terry Francona, ESPN | LA Angels | Philadelphia |
| Tristan Cockcroft, ESPN | Tampa Bay | Cincinnati |
Following the World Series, we will post an in-depth recap of how the MLB pundits performed in 2012 and update our $1 Yield Rankings.
Comments
3 Comments
Trackbacks
- MLB Pundits: 2012 Performance, Updated Rankings | PunditTracker Blog
- Why has baseball become so hard to predict? | PunditTracker Blog
- Trying to Pick Winners | Above the Market
wrong, tracker – stark had it right:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2012/story/_/id/8460541/2012-world-series-prediction
So the Vegas odds of this match-up was 1/21, if futures odds didn’t have juice in them. Usually the implied odds add up to 200%, implying the real odds of this match-up was 1/42. So, while amusing, 0/58 is not terribly surprising, especially when you consider the pundits are making a straight-up pick and not getting odds for their selection, skewing them away from relative underdogs like the Giants.
Sorry, should be 1/32 and 1/64.