And the Oscar for Best Pundit of 2014 goes to. . . .

March 3, 2014  |  Entertainment

We tracked 18 pundits who made predictions for all 24 categories of the 86th Annual Academy Awards. Here are the results:

[The second column is the # of predictions that turned out correct. The third column is the Yield, which measures the average payout, based on Vegas odds, had you bet $1 on each of the predictions. This gives pundits more credit for out-of-consensus calls, and a Yield above $1.00 means the pundit did better than the consensus view]

PunditHit Rate$1 Yield
Average20/24$1.08
Tom Shone, The Guardian22/24$1.28
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture21/24$1.23
Gregory Ellwood, HitFix21/24$1.23
Glenn Whipp, LA Times21/24$1.21
Thelma Adams, Yahoo22/24$1.16
Kristopher Tapley, HitFix20/24$1.16
Anne Thompson, Indiewire21/24$1.11
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter19/24$1.09
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit19/24$1.09
Steve Pond, TheWrap19/24$1.08
Vegas Favorites21/24$1.06
Mark Harris, Grantland20/24$1.03
Anthony Breznican, Entertainment Weekly19/24$0.99
Joel D Amos, Movie Fanatic19/24$0.99
Kevin Polowy, Yahoo20/24$0.99
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times20/24$0.99
Pete Hammond, Deadline17/24$0.99
Peter Knegt, Indiewire19/24$0.96
Guy Lodge, HitFix17/24$0.82

The Best Oscar Pundit for 2014 was Tom Shone of The Guardian, who got 22 of 24 picks correct for a Yield of $1.28, helped by non-consensus picks such as ‘Helium’ for Live Action Short and ’20 Feet from Stardom’ for Documentary. Overall, the pundits did quite well this year, generating an average Yield of $1.08. It was a strong year for the favorites, with Vegas going 21/24 for a $1.06 Yield.

Here is how the pundits did by category. Not one picked Mr. Hublot for Animated Short (Get a Horse! was the consensus favorite).

CategoryHit Rate
Best Picture11/18
Best Actor18/18
Best Actress18/18
Best Supporting Actor18/18
Best Supporting Actress15/18
Best Director18/18
Best Adapted Screenplay18/18
Best Original Screenplay10/18
Best Animated Feature18/18
Best Foreign Language Film15/18
Best Documentary Feature14/18
Best Cinematography18/18
Best Film Editing7/18
Best Production Design13/18
Best Costume Design12/18
Best Original Song18/18
Best Original Score17/18
Best Sound Editing18/18
Best Sound Mixing18/18
Best Visual Effects18/18
Best Makeup & Hairstyling17/18
Best Live Action Short9/18
Best Animated Short0/18
Best Documentary Short18/18

Finally, here is our scorecard of the pundits who have full predictions for at least two of the past three Oscars:

Pundit201220132014Average
Melena Ryzik, New York Times$1.36$1.31$1.34
Anthony Breznican, Entertainment Weekly$1.61$0.99$1.30
Anne Thompson, Indiewire$1.07$1.45$1.11$1.21
Kris Tapley, HitFix$1.39$1.08$1.16$1.21
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit$1.35$1.12$1.09$1.19
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter$0.96$1.48$1.09$1.18
Tom Shone, The Guardian$1.05$1.28$1.17
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times$1.16$0.96$1.21$1.11
Peter Knegt, Indiewire$1.37$0.94$0.96$1.09
Vegas Favorites$1.10$1.03$1.06$1.06
Pete Hammond, Deadline.com$1.22$0.86$0.99$1.02
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture$1.01$0.82$1.23$1.02
Steve Pond, TheWrap$1.14$0.83$1.08$1.02
Joel D Amos, Movie Fanatic$1.02$0.99$1.01
Kevin Polowy, Yahoo$0.95$0.84$0.99$0.93
Guy Lodge, HitFix$1.01$0.93$0.82$0.92
Rotten Tomatoes$0.83$1.01$0.92
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times$0.73$0.89$0.99$0.87

Perhaps it’s too early to make predictions for the 2015 Oscars , but why not give it a shot? For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. Head over to our Entertainment section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks on next year’s Oscars as well as box office predictions for ‘Mr. Peabody & Sherman’, ‘Divergent’, and ‘Avengers 2′. You can also see a full breakdown of all the pundits’ picks here.

If we missed any Oscar pundits that you think we should have tracked, please let us know and we will add them to the list.

Which Super Bowl picks should you listen (and not listen) to?

January 29, 2014  |  Sports

Here is how the 24 NFL game pickers we are tracking fared with their weekly picks this year, sorted best-to-worst by season Yield, along with their Super Bowl picks. As a reminder, Yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds. As a group, the ‘experts’ added no value this year, with a collective yield of $1.00.

PunditRecordHit Rate$1 YieldSuper Bowl Pick
Ron Jaworski, ESPN181-8468%$1.08Broncos
Prediction Machine, CBS182-8369%$1.05Seahawks
Mike Ditka, ESPN169-9664%$1.05Broncos
Vegas Favorites185-8070%$1.05Broncos
Dave Richard, CBS177-8867%$1.05Seahawks
Seth Wickersham, ESPN171-9465%$1.04Seahawks
Ryan Wilson, CBS173-9265%$1.04Seahawks
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS176-8966%$1.03Broncos
K.C. Joyner, ESPN175-9066%$1.03Broncos
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN166-9963%$1.02Seahawks
Tom Jackson, ESPN170-9564%$1.01Broncos
Chris Mortensen, ESPN171-9465%$1.01Broncos
John Breech, CBS172-9365%$1.00Seahawks
Mark Schlereth, ESPN170-9564%$1.00Broncos
Will Brinson, CBS165-10062%$1.00Broncos
Merril Hoge, ESPN165-10062%$0.99Broncos
Adam Schefter, ESPN170-9564%$0.98Broncos
Cris Carter, ESPN170-9564%$0.97Seahawks
Pete Prisco, CBS167-9863%$0.97Broncos
Josh Katzowitz, CBS164-10162%$0.96Broncos
Eric Allen, ESPN165-10062%$0.96Broncos
Mike Golic, ESPN164-10162%$0.96Seahawks
Frank Schwab, Yahoo161-9862%$0.95
Jason La Canfora, CBS154-11158%$0.93Seahawks
Average64%$1.00

We will update the full weekly rankings (2011-13) after the Super Bowl. For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own Super Bowl pick — as well as several prop bets —  head over to our Sports section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the NFL ‘experts’, we will hold you accountable after the game!

 

Apple analysts whiff on iPhone estimates (…again)

January 27, 2014  |  Finance

The headlines for Apple’s earnings are focusing on the 51 million iPhones shipped, which fell shy of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 55 million. For us at PunditTracker, the more interesting question is why — yet again — were the analyst’s estimates were so tightly clustered? As Fortune’s terrific spreadsheet shows, 19 of the 30 analysts predicted between 54 and 56 million iPhones. This range seems shockingly narrow for a consumer technology product, particularly given all the ‘proprietary channel checks’ being done. 29 of the 30 pundits were in a range between 52.0 and 58.5 million, which of course failed to capture the actual result. Only Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest came in below 52 million (his prediction was 50.93).

We discussed potential reasons for this errant clustering in a post last year.

 

NFL: Which Pundits Predicted A Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl?

January 27, 2014  |  Sports

We have recently recapped the awful performances of baseball and college football pundits — both groups whiffed entirely on either of the championship game participants. Did the NFL pundits do any better with their preseason predictions? We tracked 63 ‘experts’ from CBS, ESPN, NFL.com, and Sports Illustrated.

First, here were the aggregate picks for Conference and Super Bowl winners.

AFCNFCSuper Bowl
Broncos: 31Seahawks: 24Seahawks: 16
Patriots: 1149ers: 1849ers: 14
Texans: 10Falcons: 13Broncos: 13
Bengals: 10Packers: 7Falcons: 7
Colts: 1Saints: 1Packers: 7
Patriots: 4
Bengals: 1
Texans: 1

The group did quite well this season, with 49% of the pundits picking the Broncos to win the AFC (Vegas pegged their odds at 33%) and 38% selecting the Seahawks in the NFC (Vegas = 17%).

Now here are the individual selections. 13 of the 63 pundits picked both the Broncos and Seahawks to make the Super Bowl, including Jim Trotter of SI.com, who has been the best preseason prognosticator of the group since we started tracking them (he was one of two to predict the Harbaugh Bowl last year). Another 16 picked either the Broncos or Seahawks to win it all.

PunditNetworkAFCNFCSuper Bowl
Austin MurphySIDENSEADEN
Ben GoesslingESPNDENSEADEN
Bill BarnwellESPNDENSEASEA
Chris BurkeSIDENSEASEA
Elliot HarrisonNFLDENSEASEA
James WalkerESPNDENSEASEA
Jim TrotterSIDENSEADEN
Judy BattistaNFLDENSEASEA
Nick WagonerESPNDENSEASEA
Pat KirwanCBSDENSEADEN
Rich CiminiESPNDENSEASEA
Rick ReillyESPNDENSEADEN
Rob DemovskyESPNDENSEADEN
Adam SchefterESPNNESEASEA
Bill SimmonsESPNNESEASEA
Kimberly JonesNFLDENSFDEN
Mike WellsESPNDENSFDEN
Ryan WilsonCBSNESEASEA
Todd ArcherESPNDENSFDEN
Gil BrandtNFLCINSEASEA
Jason La CanforaCBSCINSEASEA
John ClaytonESPNDENATLDEN
Josh KatzowitzCBSDENATLDEN
KC JoynerESPNDENATLDEN
Michael C. WrightESPNHOUSEASEA
Mike SandoESPNHOUSEASEA
Mike SilverNFLCINSEASEA
Scott BrownESPNDENNODEN
Terry BlountESPNHOUSEASEA
Bucky BrooksNFLDENSFSF
Ian RapoportNFLDENSFSF
Jeff LegwoldESPNDENSFSF
Jeffri ChadihaESPNDENSFSF
Paul KuharskyESPNDENSFSF
Peter KingSINESEANE
Phil SheridanESPNNESEANE
Ashley FoxESPNDENATLATL
David FlemingESPNDENGBGB
Jamison HensleyESPNDENATLATL
Jeff DarlingtonNFLDENATLATL
John KeimESPNDENGBGB
Pat YasinskasESPNDENATLATL
Adam ScheinNFLHOUATLATL
Adam TeicherESPNHOUSFHOU
Albert BreerNFLCINSFSF
Ben EagleSIHOUGBGB
Bill WilliamsonESPNCINSFSF
Dan GrazianoESPNHOUATLATL
Daniel JeremiahNFLNEATLNE
David NewtonESPNCINSFSF
Don BanksSICINGBGB
Doug FarrarSIHOUGBGB
John BreechCBSCINSFSF
Kevin SeifertESPNHOUSFSF
Matt WilliamsonESPNNEGBGB
Michael DiRoccoESPNNESFSF
Mike ReissESPNNESFSF
Mike RodakESPNNESFSF
Pete PriscoCBSCINATLCIN
Seth WickershamESPNINDATLATL
Tania GanguliESPNHOUSFSF
Tom MantzouranisSICINGBGB
Will BrinsonCBSNEATLNE

We will update the full preseason rankings (2009-13) after the Super Bowl. For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own Super Bowl pick — as well as several prop bets —  head over to our Sports section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the NFL ‘experts’, we will hold you accountable after the game!

 

Barron’s Roundtable: 2013 Performance & Updated 2002-13 Rankings

January 8, 2014  |  Finance

We have been tracking the annual investment picks of the Barron’s Roundtable since 2002. After a remarkable run from 2002-10, during which the Roundtable trounced the S&P 500 for nine consecutive years, the last two years have been marked by underperformance:

200220032004200520062007200820092010
Roundtable Avg-5.7%45.7%20.9%9.1%22.2%15.7%-21.4%31.4%17.8%
S&P 500-24.5%19.7%8.0%5.2%10.3%4.2%-36.0%19.7%9.8%

201120122002-12 CAGR
Roundtable Avg-4.9%10.5%11.4%
S&P 500-1.1%11.6%0.8%

 

So would 2013 mark a reversion to the ‘good old days’ or would the stock-pickers struggle again? Let’s take a look at how their picks fared this past year:

Roundtable Member2013 Return
Average Roundtable21.2%
Meryl Witmer60.9%
Oscar Schafer37.7%
Mario Gabelli34.7%
Brian Rogers32.6%
S&P 50028.2%
Abby Joseph Cohen18.7%
Scott Black10.8%
Felix Zulauf0.0%
Fred Hickey-26.1%

The Roundtable underperformed again in 2013, posting a 21.2% return on average versus the 28.2% of the S&P.  The group’s performance was dragged down by a few members, in particular Fred Hickey. Due largely to his big bet on gold, Hickey’s picks returned -26.1% on average. Felix Zulauf, the second best roundtable performer since 2002 (behind Marc Faber, who did not make picks this year), also had a tough year given his bet on emerging markets. Scott Black and Abby Joseph Cohen underperformed as well.

On a positive note, several members posted stellar years, notably Meryl Witmer who made three picks, all of which posted 49%+ returns. Oscar Schafer, Mario Gabelli, and Brian Rogers also outperformed the index.

For a full breakdown of all the pundit’s individual picks in 2013, click here.

Despite the sluggish performance in recent years, the group’s long-term record remains admirable. The Roundtable members have posted a 13.3% average CAGR since 2002 versus 1.5% for the S&P.

Here is how they have fared on an individual basis, relative to the corresponding S&P performance for the years in which they made picks:

ReturnS&POutperformance
Total (2002-13, 12 years)13.3%1.5%11.8%
Marc Faber (2002-12, 11 years)22.8%3.1%19.7%
Felix Zulauf (2002-13, 12 years)20.2%1.5%18.7%
Oscar Schafer (2002-13, 12 years)16.0%1.5%14.5%
Meryl Witmer (2002-13, 12 years)14.7%1.5%13.2%
Barton Biggs (2002-03, 2 years)3.4%-4.9%8.3%
Art Samberg (2002-08, 7 years)4.2%-3.9%8.1%
John Neff (2002-07, 6 years)9.8%2.8%7.0%
Mario Gabelli (2002-13, 12 years)8.2%1.5%6.7%
Scott Black (2002-13, 12 years)5.4%1.5%3.9%
Brian Rogers (2012-13, 2 years)22.9%19.6%3.3%
Abby Joseph Cohen (2002-03, 2005-13, 11 years)4.2%2.4%1.8%
Fred Hickey (2005-13, 9 years)4.0%4.1%-0.1%
Archie MacAllaster (2002-11, 10 years)-1.9%-0.2%-1.7%

For a full breakdown of the Roundtable performance from 2012-13, click here.

 

For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own picks on year-end targets for the S&P, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil, Twitter, and more, head over to our Finance section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the Roundtable pundits, we will hold you accountable at year end!

 

How did the NFL Experts do with their Division predictions?

January 2, 2014  |  Sports

Let’s look at how the 57 NFL Pundits we are tracking fared with their preseason predictions for the division winners. First, here were their collective predictions:

NFC(E)NFC(N)NFC(S)NFC(W)
24: NYG48: GB46: ATL29: SEA
16: WAS06: CHI09: NO28: SF
16: DAL02: MIN02: TB00: STL
01: PHI01: DET00: CAR00: ARI

AFC(E)AFC(N)AFC(S)AFC(W)
57: NE39: CIN49: HOU56: DEN
00: BUF15: BAL08: IND01: KC
00: MIA03: PIT00: TEN00: OAK
00: NYJ00: CLE00: JAC00: SD

The pundits collectively whiffed on the NFL South, with only one pundit (Adam Schein) picking the Eagles in the NFC East and only eight picking the Colts in the AFC South.

Now here are the results on an individual basis, sorted by Yield (the average return had you bet $1 on each of the picks at Moneyline Odds).

PunditAFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC WestNFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC WestHit RateYield
Overall57/5739/578/5756/571/5748/570/5729/574/8$0.97
Ben GoesslingNECININDDENWASGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Bill WilliamsonNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Peter KingNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Albert BreerNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Kimberly JonesNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Colin CowherdNEPITINDDENDALGBNOSEA5/8$1.26
Adam ScheinNEBALHOUDENPHIGBATLSF4/8$1.22
John ClaytonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
David FlemingNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
KC JoynerNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Adam SchefterNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Rich CiminiNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Terry BlountNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
John KeimNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
Phil SheridanNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Nick WagonerNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Don BanksNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Ben EagleNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Doug FarrarNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
Tom MantzouranisNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Jim TrotterNECINHOUDENWASGBTBSEA5/8$1.19
Elliot HarrisonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Gil BrandtNECININDDENDALDETATLSF4/8$1.14
Austin MurphyNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Bucky BrooksNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Mike SilverNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Bill SimmonsNECINHOUDENNYGCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Mike ReissNEBALINDDENNYGGBNOSF4/8$0.97
Jeffri ChadihaNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Rick ReillyNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Scott BrownNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSF4/8$0.90
Tania GanguliNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Mike RodakNECINHOUDENNYGGBNOSF4/8$0.90
Mike WellsNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Dan GrazianoNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Michael C. WrightNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Pat YasinskasNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Jeff DarlingtonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Judy BattistaNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Ashley FoxNEBALHOUDENWASGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Mike SandoNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Matt WilliamsonNEBALHOUDENWASGBNOSEA4/8$0.82
Jamison HensleyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
James WalkerNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Rob DemovskyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Chris BurkeNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Daniel JeremiahNEBALHOUDENDALGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Adam TeicherNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSF3/8$0.69
David NewtonNECINHOUDENNYGMINNOSF3/8$0.69
Ian RapoportNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSF3/8$0.69
Bill BarnwellNEPITHOUKCNYGGBTBSEA3/8$0.66
Kevin SeifertNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Seth WickershamNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Michael DiRoccoNEBALHOUDENWASGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Paul KuharskyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Jeff LegwoldNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Todd ArcherNEPITHOUDENWASMINATLSF2/8$0.31

No pundit got more than 5 of the 8 divisions correct. Those with the best yields generally picked the Colts, as Vegas pegged their odds to win the AFC South at just 28% (Texans were the overwhelming favorite). The Eagles were given an 18% probability by Vegas, which makes it surprising that only Schein made that pick, while the Panthers were 15%.

To see what these pundits collectively picked for the conference winners and player awards, see our preseason recap post.

There is still time to make your own picks for this week’s Wild Card games and see if you can move up our User Leaderboard. Head over to our Sports Section to do so.

 

Vote: Worst Financial Prediction of 2013

December 22, 2013  |  Finance

We have been recapping 2013 financial predictions over the past few weeks, and the message is clear: the finance pundits had a tough go of it this year. The prevailing sentiment heading into 2013 was caution, if not outright pessimism, which of course has not played out in the equity markets.

It wasn’t easy, but after sifting through all the prognostications, we have come up with four candidates for the Worst Financial Prediction of 2013. We’ll let you make the call on which is the worst through our voting widget below.

 

(1) Byron Wien: Gold will reach $1900/oz and S&P 500 will fall below 1300

As we discussed in a blog post earlier this month, Byron Wien of Blackstone had another woeful performance with his surprise predictions this year, going 1-for-10, bringing his total to 8-for-35 since we started tracking him in 2010.

Wien’s long gold/short S&P call could hardly have been more wrong, as the S&P is now trading above 1800 (up ~30%) while gold is hovering around $1200 (down ~30%).

 

(2) Gene Munster: Apple will release a television

Taken in isolation, this prediction from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster was a perfectly reasonable one. Several other pundits we tracked predicted the same, and 48% of our users agreed that an Apple television was in the cards this year.

The reason that Munster’s prediction makes our Worst list is because he has made this prediction before…. again and again. In fact, starting in mid-2009 Munster has predicted an Apple television every six months or so and of course has been wrong each time. Lest you think we are exaggerating, here are the links to prove it: August 2009, March 2010, September 2010, June 2011, December 2011, May 2012, November 2012, March 2013, November 2013.

If Munster doesn’t win worst prediction this year, he may well be a candidate again next year as he has now pushed back his Apple television timeline to the first half of 2014. Regardless, he wins our first entry into the Broken Clock Hall of Fame.

 

(3) Harry Dent: Dow Jones Index will fall below 5000

Ever since his book The Great Crash Ahead was published in 2011, financial newsletter writer Harry Dent has been hitting the television circuits to sell his message of doom & gloom. His prediction that the S&P 500 would fall 30-50% in 2012 proved wildly wrong.

His prediction for 2013, that the Dow Jones would tumble below 5000, was equally bold and equally wrong. The Dow is at 16000 today. Could Dent simply be early? If so, we will be there to give him credit – we are still tracking his “Dow falls to 3000 by 2022” prediction on our site.

 

(4) Wall Street Analysts: S&P Price Targets

Here were the S&P forecasts of six bulge bracket firms at the start of each of the past three years.

Bank201120122013
Average (Banks)137813381543
UBS135013251425
Barclays142013301525
Credit Suisse125013401550
Goldman Sachs145012501575
JP Morgan140014301580
Bank of America Merrill Lynch140013501600
Actual125814261818*

201120122013
Average Projected Rise9.9%6.4%8.2%
Actual Rise0.3%13.4%27.5%

The mean S&P estimate has been considerably off-target each year: by +960 basis points in 2011, -700 basis points in 2012, and a whopping -1930 basis points so far this year. Moreover, the clustering effect has been very pronounced, with five of the six analyst predictions each year falling within a 100 point range (1350-1450 in 2011, 1250-1350 in 2012, and 1500-1600 in 2013) – ranges which failed to capture the actual result in every instanceWe discussed potential reasons for the errant clustering in a previous post. Regardless, given this performance, should we pay any attention to all the 2014 targets that are coming out lately?

 

Okay, those are the candidates – now it’s your turn to vote! We will reveal the “winner” on January 9.

 

Head over to our Finance section to make your own predictions for 2014 and see if you can crack our User Leaderboard. PunditTracker’s user voting platform aims to surface more “Nate Silvers” by allowing people like yourself to build your own public prediction track record. After all, with the financial ‘experts’ falling flat on their faces in 2013, shouldn’t they be replaced?

We will be adding plenty of new predictions as they come in over the next few weeks, so make sure to check back frequently. You can also see the profile pages for all the pundits discussed above, including a full breakdown of their predictions since we started tracking them.

 

NFL Pundit Rankings: Week 15 Update

December 18, 2013  |  Sports

We last checked in on how the NFL experts were doing with their game picks back in Week 11. Let’s see the updated rankings through Week 15, sorted by $1 Yield, which is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds.

Yield12131415SeasonSeason Hit Rate
Average$0.88$1.06$1.12$0.86$0.9963%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN$0.77$1.20$0.94$1.06$1.0767%
Dave Richard, CBS$1.20$1.20$1.28$1.29$1.0666%
Mike Ditka, ESPN$1.56$0.86$1.15$1.00$1.0563%
K.C. Joyner, ESPN$0.72$1.17$1.58$0.75$1.0466%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN$0.92$0.66$1.23$0.89$1.0462%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN$0.96$1.57$1.22$0.89$1.0364%
Vegas Favorites$0.86$1.27$1.26$0.95$1.0268%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS$0.93$1.04$1.20$0.86$1.0165%
Ryan Wilson, CBS$1.00$1.17$1.10$0.75$1.0163%
Tom Jackson, ESPN$0.51$1.07$0.98$0.63$1.0062%
John Breech, CBS$0.90$1.07$1.06$0.86$0.9964%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN$1.03$1.00$1.11$0.96$0.9962%
Adam Schefter, ESPN$0.89$1.39$1.22$1.09$0.9863%
Cris Carter, ESPN$0.89$1.18$1.31$0.74$0.9764%
Merril Hoge, ESPN$0.92$0.87$1.19$0.74$0.9762%
Will Brinson, CBS$0.98$1.03$0.89$0.86$0.9761%
Pete Prisco, CBS$1.03$1.24$1.11$0.74$0.9762%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo$0.76$0.91$1.45$0.52$0.9662%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN$0.89$1.03$0.98$0.86$0.9661%
Mike Golic, ESPN$0.62$0.73$1.04$0.75$0.9561%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS$0.34$1.05$0.98$0.85$0.9360%
Jason La Canfora, CBS$0.75$0.75$0.73$1.03$0.9357%
Eric Allen, ESPN$0.89$1.20$0.94$0.86$0.9160%

Ron Jaworski maintains his slight lead in the rankings while Eric Allen remains in last place. There have been several notable changes, however, including, Dave Richard leaping from the middle of the pack to #2 after posting the best record in three of the past four weeks (9-4, 12-4, 12-4, 12-4).

Mike Ditka (#3) continues to lead the group as far as pegging big upsets, as evidenced in Week 12 when he picked both Tampa Bay to beat Detroit (only pundit to do so) and Jacksonville to defeat Houston (one of two).

Les Carpenter has been removed from the rankings as his picks are no longer being logged by Yahoo. Carpenter had been in the second-to-last place this year and had an overall PunditTracker grade of C+ (picks tracked since 2011).

The group whiffed entirely on the Chargers/Broncos and Eagles/Vikings games last week. In aggregate, the experts have added no value this season, posting a collective yield of $0.99.

There is still time to make your own Week 16 picks and find yourself alongside the experts in our rankings. Head over to our NFL Section to do so.

 

Bob Doll’s Grade in 2013

December 16, 2013  |  Finance

We have been tracking the annual predictions of Bob Doll (formerly of Blackrock, now at Nuveen) since 2010. Heading into this year, he was 12-for-25 (48% hit rate) for the predictions we tracked, equating to a $0.82 Yield and F grade. Recall that Yield is the ROI had you bet $1 on the prediction based on those consensus odds; this is our core scoring metric and is used to arrive at our letter grade.

201020112012Cumulative
Hit Rate5/9 (56%)4/8 (50%)3/8 (38%)12/25 (48%)
Yield$0.86$0.83$0.77$0.82
GradeFFFF

As we await Bob Doll’s outlook for 2014, let’s recap how his predictions for 2013 are turning out.

PredictionOutcomeConsensusYield
Total3/7, 2 TBD$0.80
Europe exits recession by the end of 2013TRUE42%$2.38
US yield curve steepens in 2013TRUE62%$1.61
US stocks see an all-time high during 2013 (S&P 500 above 1565)TRUE61%$1.64
Emerging market equities outperform developed market equitiesFALSE62%$0.00
US multinationals outperform domestically focused companiesFALSE75%$0.00
US passes $2-3 trillion ten-year budget dealFALSE33%$0.00
Large-caps stocks outperform small-caps AND cyclical companies outperform defensive companiesFALSE52%$0.00
Dividends increase at a double-digit rate as pay-out ratios riseTBD
US nominal GDP growth will be less than 5% in 2013TBD

Consensus refers to how likely PunditTracker’s user base deemed the prediction to occur at the time it was made.

Final Tally

2013 Results: 3/7 (43% Hit Rate), 2 TBD, $0.80 Yield, F Grade

Cumulative Results: 15/32 (47% Hit Rate), $0.82 Yield, F Grade

 

Chris Ciaccia’s 2013 Grade & New Tech Predictions for 2014

December 16, 2013  |  Finance

We tracked seven of Chris Ciaccia’s (TheStreet.com) technology predictions in 2013. Here is how he fared.

PredictionOutcome
Intel will become a major foundry in 2013FALSE
Twitter will file to go public in 2013TRUE
Zynga will get acquired in 2013FALSE
Apple will release a television set in 2013FALSE
Microsoft will release a next-gen Xbox console in 2013TRUE
Nokia will lose market share in 2013TRUE
Steve Ballmer will leave Microsoft in 2013TRUE

Ciaccia’s best prediction was Steve Ballmer’s Microsoft exit. His Twitter IPO prediction (51% consensus, based on our user votes) was another standout. Ciaccia whiffed on the Zynga acquisition and Apple TV set; while Intel tiptoed into the foundry market, we graded his prediction (“major foundry”) as incorrect.

Final Tally: 4 Correct, 3 Incorrect (57% Hit Rate), $1.07 Yield, B+ Grade

Recall that Yield is our core scoring metric and calibrates predictions for how bold they are, giving pundits more credit for out-of-consensus predictions. It measures the average ROI had bet $1 on each of his predictions, based on consensus odds at the time.

Now here are Ciaccia’s predictions for 2014.

Apple will launch a watch in 214
Jawbone or Fitbit get acquired in 214
Snapchat valuation bubble will burst in 214
Square will go public in 214
Dropbox IPO will flop
Box IPO will flop
HP will enter the 3D printing market in 214
Apple will increase its share repurchase program in 214
John Chambers will step down as Cisco's CEO in 214
Intel will become more relevant in mobile in 214
Yahoo will acquired Business Insider in 214

For a limited time, you can make your own predictions on many of these. Head over to Chris Ciaccia’s PunditTracker profile page to do so.

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