Oscar Predictions 2013: Who got it right last year?

February 21, 2013  |  Entertainment

With predictions for the the 85th Annual Academy Awards flowing in, let’s revisit which film pundits fared best and worst with their Oscar predictions last year.  Here are our rankings for the 21 pundits we tracked, along with several of their predictions for this year (based on the latest available information, which we will update throughout the week).

Last Year’s Oscars: Rankings

Yield = how much money you would have made, on average, had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s predictions (based on Vegas odds)

HR = Hit Rate = # correct predictions / # total predictions

YieldHRPictureActorActressS ActorS ActressDirector
Kris Tapley$1.3979%ArgoDDLRivaDeNiroHathawayLee
Peter Knegt$1.3779%ArgoDDLRivaDeNiroHathawaySpielberg
Clayton Davis$1.3583%ArgoDDLRivaWaltzHathawayRussell
Melena Ryzik$1.3683%ArgoDDLLawrenceDeNiroHathawayLee
Pete Hammond$1.2275%ArgoDDLRivaDeNiroHathawayLee
Glenn Whipp$1.1679%
Steve Pond$1.1475%ArgoDDLRivaDeNiroHathawayLee
Sasha Stone$1.1175%
Vegas Favorites$1.1077%ArgoDDLLawrenceJonesHathawaySpielberg
Dave Karger$1.0975%ArgoDDLLawrenceDeNiroHathawayLee
Anne Thompson$1.0771%ArgoDDLLawrenceJonesHathawayLee
Guy Lodge$1.0167%ArgoDDLRivaWaltzHathawayLee
Kyle Buchanan$1.0167%ArgoDDLLawrenceJonesHathawaySpielberg
Lou Lumenick$0.9865%
Jim Slotek$0.9858%
Scott Feinberg$0.9667%ArgoDDLLawrenceWaltzHathawayLee
Kevin Polowy$0.9567%ArgoDDLLawrenceJonesHathawaySpielberg
Rotten Tomatoes$0.8358%ArgoDDLLawrenceJonesHathawaySpielberg
Mark Harris$0.7658%
Richard Roeper$0.7358%ArgoDDLLawrenceDeNiroHathawaySpielberg
Erik Childress$0.6354%
S.T. VanAirsdale$0.5943%

Last year was a good one for the favorites (as deemed by oddsmakers), which outperformed most of the pundits we tracked on both a Yield and Hit Rate basis. For the pundits that scored well on our Yield metric, underdog picks such as “Undefeated” in Documentary and “Hugo” in both Cinematography and Visual Effects accounted for most of the outperformance.

We will update the picks throughout the week and then provide updated rankings following Sunday’s results. If there are any other Oscar pundits that you wish to see tracked, just let us know.





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