With predictions for the the 85th Annual Academy Awards flowing in, let’s revisit which film pundits fared best and worst with their Oscar predictions last year. Here are our rankings for the 21 pundits we tracked, along with several of their predictions for this year (based on the latest available information, which we will update throughout the week).
Last Year’s Oscars: Rankings
Yield = how much money you would have made, on average, had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s predictions (based on Vegas odds)
HR = Hit Rate = # correct predictions / # total predictions
Yield HR Picture Actor Actress S Actor S Actress Director
Kris Tapley $1.39 79% Argo DDL Riva DeNiro Hathaway Lee
Peter Knegt $1.37 79% Argo DDL Riva DeNiro Hathaway Spielberg
Clayton Davis $1.35 83% Argo DDL Riva Waltz Hathaway Russell
Melena Ryzik $1.36 83% Argo DDL Lawrence DeNiro Hathaway Lee
Pete Hammond $1.22 75% Argo DDL Riva DeNiro Hathaway Lee
Glenn Whipp $1.16 79% Steve Pond $1.14 75% Argo DDL Riva DeNiro Hathaway Lee
Sasha Stone $1.11 75% Vegas Favorites $1.10 77% Argo DDL Lawrence Jones Hathaway Spielberg
Dave Karger $1.09 75% Argo DDL Lawrence DeNiro Hathaway Lee
Anne Thompson $1.07 71% Argo DDL Lawrence Jones Hathaway Lee
Guy Lodge $1.01 67% Argo DDL Riva Waltz Hathaway Lee
Kyle Buchanan $1.01 67% Argo DDL Lawrence Jones Hathaway Spielberg
Lou Lumenick $0.98 65% Jim Slotek $0.98 58% Scott Feinberg $0.96 67% Argo DDL Lawrence Waltz Hathaway Lee
Kevin Polowy $0.95 67% Argo DDL Lawrence Jones Hathaway Spielberg
Rotten Tomatoes $0.83 58% Argo DDL Lawrence Jones Hathaway Spielberg
Mark Harris $0.76 58% Richard Roeper $0.73 58% Argo DDL Lawrence DeNiro Hathaway Spielberg
Erik Childress $0.63 54% S.T. VanAirsdale $0.59 43%
Last year was a good one for the favorites (as deemed by oddsmakers), which outperformed most of the pundits we tracked on both a Yield and Hit Rate basis. For the pundits that scored well on our Yield metric, underdog picks such as “Undefeated” in Documentary and “Hugo” in both Cinematography and Visual Effects accounted for most of the outperformance.
We will update the picks throughout the week and then provide updated rankings following Sunday’s results. If there are any other Oscar pundits that you wish to see tracked, just let us know.