We are launching the site with 13 NFL Pundits from ESPN and Sports Illustrated, each of whom made preseason picks in the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons. We have tracked their predictions across 14 categories: 8 Division Winners, 2 Conference Champions, Super Bowl Champion, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Most Valuable Player.
Here is how they ranked based on our $1 Bet Yield metric, which calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections. We have included the 2012 Super Bowl prediction for each of the pundits.$1 Bet Yield for NFL Pundits (2009-2011 Preseason Predictions)
|2009||2010||2011||Cumulative||Super Bowl 2012|
|Adam Schefter, ESPN||$0.63||$1.71||$1.51||$1.28||Packers|
|Matt Williamson, ESPN||$0.35||$1.96||$1.35||$1.22||Patriots|
|Jim Trotter, SI||$0.35||$1.94||$1.34||$1.21||Ravens|
|Peter King, SI||$0.75||$1.97||$0.85||$1.19||Packers|
|Pat Yasinskas, ESPN||$0.80||$0.80||$1.35||$0.98||Patriots|
|Mike Sando, ESPN||$0.52||$0.89||$1.45||$0.96||Packers|
|Jeffri Chadiha, ESPN||$0.54||$1.33||$0.99||$0.95||Packers|
|Paul Kuharsky, ESPN||$0.18||$1.98||$0.69||$0.95||Falcons|
|Bill Williamson, ESPN||$0.54||$0.54||$1.70||$0.93||Eagles|
|Kevin Seifert, ESPN||$0.36||$0.51||$1.81||$0.89||Packers|
|John Clayton, ESPN||$0.71||$0.50||$1.45||$0.89||Packers|
|Don Banks, SI||$0.38||$0.54||$1.47||$0.80||Packers|
|James Walker, ESPN||$0.71||$0.54||$0.84||$0.70||Patriots|
Interestingly, the pundits’ collective yield over the three-year period was $1.00, meaning that betting equally on all of their picks would have been a breakeven proposition. Only four of the thirteen pundits generated positive payouts, with Adam Schefter of ESPN topping the list.
2009 was a terrible year for the group, with all the pundits underperforming what simply going with the consensus favorites (as deemed by Vegas) would have paid out. 2010 was a much better year, with four correctly selecting the Packers to win the Super Bowl. In 2011, while no one picked the Giants to win it all, consensus selections scored well in categories such as AFC Champion (Patriots), MVP (Aaron Rodgers), and Defensive Rookie of the Year (Von Miller), leading to a good year for the pundits.