NBA: Revisiting the Preseason Predictions

February 14, 2013  |  Sports

As we head into All-Star Weekend, let’s take a look at how the NBA pundit prognostications are shaping up so far this year. We are tracking the predictions of 35 ESPN pundits across 11 categories: 6 division winners, 2 conference winners, overall champion, MVP, and Rookie of the Year. Given that it’s too early to judge the likelihood of conference and overall championship winners, we will only analyze how the division and player award picks are faring (8 categories), assuming the season ended today. This might prove presumptuous, but we are assuming that LeBron wins MVP and Damian Lillard wins ROY (for you Kevin Durant fans, we are happy to provide the data based on KD winning the MVP).

The table is ranked by Yield, although you can sort by # correct as well. As a reminder, the Yield metric calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections. The last row (“total”) shows the % of pundits that got each category right — for instance, none of the 35 pundits picked the Knicks to win the Atlantic, while all of them picked the Heat to win the Southeast.

Kevin ArnovitzBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardJames6$1.47
Nick FriedellBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardJames6$1.47
Dave McMenaminBKNINDMIAOKCMEMLALLillardJames5$1.27
Israel GutierrezBOSINDMIAOKCSALACDavisPaul5$1.21
Brian WindhorstBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant5$1.12
Beckley MasonBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant5$1.12
Mike MazzeoBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant5$1.12
David ThorpePHICHIMIADENSALALLillardJames4$1.11
Marc SteinBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Chris PalmerBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Larry CoonBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Royce WebbBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Tom HaberstrohBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Maurice BrooksBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Arash MarkaziBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Chris ForsbergBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Ian BegleyBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Vegas FavoritesBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Scoop JacksonBOSINDMIAOKCMEMLACDrummondPaul4$1.02
Justin VerrierBOSINDMIADENSALALLillardDurant4$0.98
R. ShelburneBOSINDMIAOKCMEMLALLillardPaul4$0.93
Tim LeglerBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant4$0.90
Keith LipscombBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant4$0.90
John HollingerBOSINDMIADENSALALDavisJames4$0.89
Chad FordBOSINDMIADENSALALDavisJames4$0.89
Adena AndrewsBOSINDMIAOKCMEMLALDavisJames4$0.84
Jackie MacMullanBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALDavisJames4$0.82
Tim MacMahonBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALDavisJames4$0.82
Chris RamsayBOSINDMIADENMEMLALDavisJames3$0.70
J.A. AdandeBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisDurant4$0.69
Chris BroussardBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisDurant4$0.69
Michael WallaceBOSINDMIAOKCSALALKidd-GilchristPaul4$0.69
Henry AbbottPHIINDMIAOKCSALALDrummondDurant4$0.69
Jack RamsayPHIINDMIAOKCSALALSullingerWade4$0.69
Bruce BowenBKNINDMIAOKCSALALDavisDurant4$0.69
Adry TorresBKNINDMIAOKCMEMLALDavisDurant3$0.50


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