As we head into All-Star Weekend, let’s take a look at how the NBA pundit prognostications are shaping up so far this year. We are tracking the predictions of 35 ESPN pundits across 11 categories: 6 division winners, 2 conference winners, overall champion, MVP, and Rookie of the Year. Given that it’s too early to judge the likelihood of conference and overall championship winners, we will only analyze how the division and player award picks are faring (8 categories), assuming the season ended today. This might prove presumptuous, but we are assuming that LeBron wins MVP and Damian Lillard wins ROY (for you Kevin Durant fans, we are happy to provide the data based on KD winning the MVP).
The table is ranked by Yield, although you can sort by # correct as well. As a reminder, the Yield metric calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections. The last row (“total”) shows the % of pundits that got each category right — for instance, none of the 35 pundits picked the Knicks to win the Atlantic, while all of them picked the Heat to win the Southeast.
Pundit Atl Ctl SE NW SW Pac RoY MVP # Yield
Total 0% 86% 100% 86% 83% 6% 31% 54% 4 $0.96
Kevin Arnovitz BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard James 6 $1.47
Nick Friedell BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard James 6 $1.47
Dave McMenamin BKN IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Lillard James 5 $1.27
Israel Gutierrez BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAC Davis Paul 5 $1.21
Brian Windhorst BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 5 $1.12
Beckley Mason BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 5 $1.12
Mike Mazzeo BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 5 $1.12
David Thorpe PHI CHI MIA DEN SA LAL Lillard James 4 $1.11
Marc Stein BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Chris Palmer BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Larry Coon BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Royce Webb BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Tom Haberstroh BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Maurice Brooks BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Arash Markazi BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Chris Forsberg BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Ian Begley BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Vegas Favorites BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 5 $1.04
Scoop Jackson BOS IND MIA OKC MEM LAC Drummond Paul 4 $1.02
Justin Verrier BOS IND MIA DEN SA LAL Lillard Durant 4 $0.98
R. Shelburne BOS IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Lillard Paul 4 $0.93
Tim Legler BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 4 $0.90
Keith Lipscomb BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Lillard Durant 4 $0.90
John Hollinger BOS IND MIA DEN SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.89
Chad Ford BOS IND MIA DEN SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.89
Adena Andrews BOS IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Davis James 4 $0.84
Jackie MacMullan BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.82
Tim MacMahon BOS CHI MIA OKC SA LAL Davis James 4 $0.82
Chris Ramsay BOS IND MIA DEN MEM LAL Davis James 3 $0.70
J.A. Adande BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis Durant 4 $0.69
Chris Broussard BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis Durant 4 $0.69
Michael Wallace BOS IND MIA OKC SA LAL Kidd-Gilchrist Paul 4 $0.69
Henry Abbott PHI IND MIA OKC SA LAL Drummond Durant 4 $0.69
Jack Ramsay PHI IND MIA OKC SA LAL Sullinger Wade 4 $0.69
Bruce Bowen BKN IND MIA OKC SA LAL Davis Durant 4 $0.69
Adry Torres BKN IND MIA OKC MEM LAL Davis Durant 3 $0.50
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