When we started tracking James Altucher in 2011, it didn’t take long to recognize that Altucher swings for the fences with his predictions. In fact, all seven of his predictions that we have cataloged have had Medium-High or High boldness ratings. Altucher’s approach is likely to result in a low Hit Rate, but his Yield will tell the story over the long run.
Three of his predictions have come due so far in 2013:
Dow Jones Index will hit 20,000 within one year (made on 2/27/12): Predictions don’t get much bolder than this — consider that the Dow was at 13K at the time — and this one proved to be wildly off the mark, with the Dow finishing February at just above 14,000.
Apple will be $1 trillion dollar company in one year (made on 2/6/12): Altucher was calling for more than a double in Apple’s valuation, and when the stock soared to $700 per share last fall, the prospect suddenly seemed plausible. However, the stock has since given back its gains and closed Feburary 6 at about $457 share, slightly down from when Altucher made his prediction.
S&P 500 to hit 1500 by early 2013 (made on 9/23/11): The S&P was at 1130 when Altucher made this prediction for a 30%+ return over the next sixteen months. This bold call was proven correct when the S&P eclipsed 1500 in late January.
Overall, Altucher has been 1-for-6 with the predictions we have tracked, with a $0.92 yield. Click here to see the details for all his calls, including yet another super-bold one: that Facebook will have a $300 billion market capitalization by 2017.