How did the NFL Experts do with their Division predictions?

January 2, 2014  |  Sports

Let’s look at how the 57 NFL Pundits we are tracking fared with their preseason predictions for the division winners. First, here were their collective predictions:

NFC(E)NFC(N)NFC(S)NFC(W)
24: NYG48: GB46: ATL29: SEA
16: WAS06: CHI09: NO28: SF
16: DAL02: MIN02: TB00: STL
01: PHI01: DET00: CAR00: ARI

AFC(E)AFC(N)AFC(S)AFC(W)
57: NE39: CIN49: HOU56: DEN
00: BUF15: BAL08: IND01: KC
00: MIA03: PIT00: TEN00: OAK
00: NYJ00: CLE00: JAC00: SD

The pundits collectively whiffed on the NFL South, with only one pundit (Adam Schein) picking the Eagles in the NFC East and only eight picking the Colts in the AFC South.

Now here are the results on an individual basis, sorted by Yield (the average return had you bet $1 on each of the picks at Moneyline Odds).

PunditAFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC WestNFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC WestHit RateYield
Overall57/5739/578/5756/571/5748/570/5729/574/8$0.97
Ben GoesslingNECININDDENWASGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Bill WilliamsonNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Peter KingNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Albert BreerNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Kimberly JonesNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Colin CowherdNEPITINDDENDALGBNOSEA5/8$1.26
Adam ScheinNEBALHOUDENPHIGBATLSF4/8$1.22
John ClaytonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
David FlemingNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
KC JoynerNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Adam SchefterNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Rich CiminiNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Terry BlountNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
John KeimNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
Phil SheridanNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Nick WagonerNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Don BanksNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Ben EagleNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Doug FarrarNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
Tom MantzouranisNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Jim TrotterNECINHOUDENWASGBTBSEA5/8$1.19
Elliot HarrisonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Gil BrandtNECININDDENDALDETATLSF4/8$1.14
Austin MurphyNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Bucky BrooksNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Mike SilverNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Bill SimmonsNECINHOUDENNYGCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Mike ReissNEBALINDDENNYGGBNOSF4/8$0.97
Jeffri ChadihaNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Rick ReillyNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Scott BrownNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSF4/8$0.90
Tania GanguliNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Mike RodakNECINHOUDENNYGGBNOSF4/8$0.90
Mike WellsNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Dan GrazianoNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Michael C. WrightNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Pat YasinskasNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Jeff DarlingtonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Judy BattistaNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Ashley FoxNEBALHOUDENWASGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Mike SandoNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Matt WilliamsonNEBALHOUDENWASGBNOSEA4/8$0.82
Jamison HensleyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
James WalkerNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Rob DemovskyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Chris BurkeNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Daniel JeremiahNEBALHOUDENDALGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Adam TeicherNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSF3/8$0.69
David NewtonNECINHOUDENNYGMINNOSF3/8$0.69
Ian RapoportNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSF3/8$0.69
Bill BarnwellNEPITHOUKCNYGGBTBSEA3/8$0.66
Kevin SeifertNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Seth WickershamNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Michael DiRoccoNEBALHOUDENWASGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Paul KuharskyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Jeff LegwoldNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Todd ArcherNEPITHOUDENWASMINATLSF2/8$0.31

No pundit got more than 5 of the 8 divisions correct. Those with the best yields generally picked the Colts, as Vegas pegged their odds to win the AFC South at just 28% (Texans were the overwhelming favorite). The Eagles were given an 18% probability by Vegas, which makes it surprising that only Schein made that pick, while the Panthers were 15%.

To see what these pundits collectively picked for the conference winners and player awards, see our preseason recap post.

There is still time to make your own picks for this week’s Wild Card games and see if you can move up our User Leaderboard. Head over to our Sports Section to do so.

 

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