Grading Michael Tomasky’s Predictions for 2012

December 17, 2012  |  Politics

We started tracking Michael Tomasky of The Daily Beast in 2012, when he made his prediction list for 2012. His prediction of an Obama Win/Democratic Senate Win/Republican House Win earned a spot on our Top Political Predictions of 2012 (voting ends tomorrow!). Let’s now look at how the rest of his calls are shaping up:

Romney will win the GOP nominationMedium-LowTRUE
Bashar al-Assad will fall in 2012MediumUNLIKELY
Fidel Castro won't die in 2012LowUNLIKELY
Romney selects Susana Martinez as VP AND Obama still wins NM by 6 pointsHighFALSE
Obama wins reelection AND Democrats hold Senate AND Republicans hold HouseMedium-HighTRUE
Supreme Court upholds indiv. mandate by 5-4 vote AND Kennedy and Scalia both vote for itHighFALSE

Likely Tally: 3 for 6, $1.19 Yield

For a full breakdown of Tomasky’s predictions, click here for his PunditTracker profile page.


We are now tracking more than 120 pundits on With the 2013 Predictions rolling in, check out all the latest predictions and enter the PT Challenge to compete with the “experts” and win prizes. If you have suggestions for new pundits for us to track, please let us know.




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