Pundits & Predictions Blog | PunditTracker http://blog.pundittracker.com Fri, 24 May 2013 16:31:50 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 Bill O’Reilly: Eric Holder Will Resign Over IRS Scandal http://blog.pundittracker.com/bill-oreilly-eric-holder-will-resign-over-irs-scandal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bill-oreilly-eric-holder-will-resign-over-irs-scandal http://blog.pundittracker.com/bill-oreilly-eric-holder-will-resign-over-irs-scandal/#comments Fri, 24 May 2013 15:12:52 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2440 Do you agree or disagree with Bill O’Reilly prediction? Make your own prediction now on visiting O’Reilly profile page (link below) and using the “Vote Now” button: Bill O’Reilly’s Predictions Here is the link to O’Reilly making his prediction.  

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]]> Do you agree or disagree with Bill O’Reilly prediction? Make your own prediction now on visiting O’Reilly profile page (link below) and using the “Vote Now” button:

Bill O’Reilly’s Predictions

Here is the link to O’Reilly making his prediction.

 

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]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/bill-oreilly-eric-holder-will-resign-over-irs-scandal/feed/ 0 Help Wanted: Moderators & Trackers http://blog.pundittracker.com/help-needed-moderators-trackers/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=help-needed-moderators-trackers http://blog.pundittracker.com/help-needed-moderators-trackers/#comments Thu, 16 May 2013 14:11:56 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2408 As we continue to expand both the number of pundits and types of pundits we track, we need your help. We are looking for volunteer Moderators and Trackers. Moderators will take “ownership” of specific categories, helping to shape creative direction. For instance, we are considering tracking Economists in Finance and Pollsters in Politics, but these [...]

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]]> As we continue to expand both the number of pundits and types of pundits we track, we need your help. We are looking for volunteer Moderators and Trackers.

Moderators will take “ownership” of specific categories, helping to shape creative direction. For instance, we are considering tracking Economists in Finance and Pollsters in Politics, but these categories have gray areas that create scoring challenges. For instance, both economists and pollsters frequently revise their predictions/estimates, so how should we go about tracking them? And how should we think about margin of error? Rather than imposing our own views, we think it’s best to give authority to our users, who are more knowledgeable about these specialties than we are.

As far as Trackers, as we scale up the number of pundits we track, it becomes more difficult to catch all the predictions that are being made. As such, we are looking for Trackers who will help us screen the daily newsflow for new predictions in a given category or even for a specific pundit or television show.

Here are some of the categories for which we are looking for Moderators and Trackers, although if you have suggestions for new categories, we are all ears:

Finance: Economists (e.g. GDP, inflation), Stock Market (e.g. stock analysts, annual S&P predictions), General

Politics: Pollsters, General

Sports: NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAA Football, NCAA Basketball, Other (e.g. Hockey, Boxing, Horse Racing, Tennis, UFC/MMA)

Entertainment: General (e.g. Oscars, Emmys)

Technology: General

Use the “Whom should we track?” button on the bottom-right of the page to contact us and we will get back to you promptly. Thanks!

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]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/help-needed-moderators-trackers/feed/ 0 2013 NFL Mock Draft Grades: Todd McShay Crashes Back To Earth http://blog.pundittracker.com/2013-mock-draft-grades-todd-mcshay-crashes-back-to-earth/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2013-mock-draft-grades-todd-mcshay-crashes-back-to-earth http://blog.pundittracker.com/2013-mock-draft-grades-todd-mcshay-crashes-back-to-earth/#comments Thu, 16 May 2013 14:00:42 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2377 The 2013 NFL Draft was widely viewed to be more unpredictable than most. After grading the mock drafts of Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), and Mike Mayock (NFL.com), we can confirm that those views proved correct: all three pundits had a rough year. Todd McShay, who was #1 in mock draft accuracy in each [...]

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]]> The 2013 NFL Draft was widely viewed to be more unpredictable than most. After grading the mock drafts of Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), and Mike Mayock (NFL.com), we can confirm that those views proved correct: all three pundits had a rough year. Todd McShay, who was #1 in mock draft accuracy in each of the past four years, had a particularly woeful showing.

Let’s start with our simple variability measure, which is based on the difference between when each player was projected to be picked and when he was actually picked. A lower variability score is better:

Variability200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock7.39.69.99.37.910.79.1
Kiper10.18.810.47.78.511.79.6
McShay10.78.78.86.87.021.510.6

The average variability for the three pundits from 2008-12 was 8.8, which underscores just how poor their 2013 performance (14.7 average) was. Big misses for all three included Sharrif Floyd going #3 to Oakland (he went #23 to Minnesota) and Eddie Lacy going late in the first round (actually went late second round). McShay and Mayock both whiffed on Geno Smith, picking him to go #6 to Cleveland (actual: #39 to Jets).

The worst projection of all, however, was McShay pegging Ryan Nassib going #7 to Buffalo (actual: #110 to the Giants). This was by the far the worst first-round projection since we started tracking the mock drafts in 2008.

Here are all the major hits and misses:

Biggest Hits and Misses (2008-2013)

The variability metric can be significantly impacted by “outliers” such as Nassib, so we have calculated a host of alternative metrics, including:

  • Capped Variability (lower = better): caps the maximum penalty of any pick at one round — for instance, McShay’s Nassib pick would be graded as 32 spots off rather than 103 spots
  • Median Error (lower = better)
  • Hit Rate (higher = better): pure percentage of how many picks were correct

Here are the results for these three metrics from 2008-2013.

Capped Variability200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock7.39.69.39.37.910.38.9
McShay10.78.78.76.87.012.39.1
Kiper10.18.29.57.78.510.99.3

Median Error200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock2.04.03.03.03.53.53.2
Kiper3.03.53.04.03.03.53.4
McShay4.04.03.03.53.05.03.8

Hit Rate200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock35%28%22%28%19%28%27%
Kiper29%25%31%28%22%25%27%
McShay16%25%34%25%16%22%23%

 

Will Tavon Austin win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Peyton Manning for MVP? Make your Predictions now on PunditTracker while the voting is still open — click here to submit your picks (use the VOTE NOW buttons).

 

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]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/2013-mock-draft-grades-todd-mcshay-crashes-back-to-earth/feed/ 1 Jim Cramer’s Mad Money Picks: 2011 and 2012 Recap http://blog.pundittracker.com/jim-cramers-mad-money-picks-2011-and-2012-recap/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=jim-cramers-mad-money-picks-2011-and-2012-recap http://blog.pundittracker.com/jim-cramers-mad-money-picks-2011-and-2012-recap/#comments Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:00:21 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2345 After announcing the idea of PunditTracker early in 2012, we solicited suggestions from our readers on which pundits to track. The most requested financial pundit, by far, was Jim Cramer. In fact, during our interview with NPR last March, host Bob Garfield ended the discussion with the not-so-subtle request: “Two words: Jim Cramer”. We are [...]

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]]> After announcing the idea of PunditTracker early in 2012, we solicited suggestions from our readers on which pundits to track. The most requested financial pundit, by far, was Jim Cramer. In fact, during our interview with NPR last March, host Bob Garfield ended the discussion with the not-so-subtle request: “Two words: Jim Cramer”.

We are making Cramer the first in our PT Focus series, in which we take an in-depth look at a pundit’s track record. For those who are unaware, Cramer is the host of the popular show Mad Money on CNBC, providing general financial advice as well as specific stock recommendations.

Cramer currently has an F grade on PunditTracker.com. Let’s walk through how we arrive at that score.

First, here are the parameters by which we evaluate Cramer’s stock recommendations:

  • We started tracking his picks on January 1, 2011.
  • We score only his “Featured” picks on Mad Money and not those made in other segments such as the “Lightning Round.” Our reasoning is that the Featured picks are unsolicited recommendations for which Cramer has presumably done more research than for picks given as live responses to viewer questions.
  • We measure the performance of his picks relative to that of the S&P 500 index over the corresponding period.
  • We assume a three-month holding period, unless Cramer reverses his stance on a given name (e.g. says Buy XYZ and then says Sell XYZ within the three months), in which case we “close out” the original recommendation. This holding period is based on the idea that Cramer tends to revisit his picks each quarter. (Note: We also have calculated performance using a six-month holding period; we are happy to provide the data if there is interest).
  • The baseline stock price is the opening price two days after the recommendation is made, in order to account for any day-one “Cramer bump” effect.
  • The hit rate is the percentage of Cramer’s picks that outperform the index. We equate sell ratings to short recommendations (i.e. they are scored as correct if the stock underperforms the S&P).

With the parameters out of the way, let’s now delve into the details of Cramer’s performance.

Given our assumed three-month holding period, we have now graded two years worth of Cramer’s picks: those made from January 2011 through December 2012.  That amounts to 552 calls overall, of which 254 outperformed the index (46% hit rate).

On average, Cramer’s picks returned -0.08% versus the 1.35% S&P 500 return over the corresponding period. That amounts to 142 basis points of quarterly underperformance, or 568 basis points on an annualized basis, which amounts to an F grade in our grading system. (We award an A for 500+ basis points of annual equity outperformance and an F for 500+ basis points of underperformance).

Let’s now break down his results by year and by quarter:

20112012Total
Cramer's Picks (three-month holding period)-1.6%1.1%-0.1%
S&P 5000.5%2.0%1.4%
Relative performance (basis points)-207-89-142
# picks247305552
Hit Rate (% that outperformed)48%44%46%
PunditTracker GradeFDF
1Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q12
Cramer-1.1%-8.3%-5.3%6.0%1.9%2.5%-3.1%2.1%
S&P 5001.2%-4.8%0.0%4.7%1.6%2.8%0.1%3.1%
Relative-234-347-53813329-35-313-101
# picks5963487786816177
Hit Rate39%46%46%58%45%43%36%51%
PT GradeFFFAC+C-FD-

Here were Cramer’s ten best and worst picks during the two years:

10 Best Picks

DatePickS&PRelative
Sell RSH12/22/1133.3%-12.0%45.3%
Sell RIMM05/02/1150.0%7.5%42.5%
Buy TRNX03/18/1140.4%-1.5%41.9%
Sell VRA03/02/1245.5%6.3%39.2%
Sell SVU07/11/1231.9%-7.0%38.9%
Sell MDRX03/15/1239.2%4.4%34.8%
Sell ZIP06/11/1224.7%-8.3%32.9%
Sell FSLR10/13/1127.5%-5.3%32.7%
Sell TUMI04/23/1235.1%2.5%32.7%
Sell NOK05/02/1139.7%7.5%32.2%

10 Worst Picks

DatePickS&PRelative
Sell VRUS06/09/11-130.0%9.2%-139.2%
Buy NFLX07/26/11-70.0%-4.8%-65.1%
Sell Z11/29/12-64.3%-7.2%-57.2%
Buy PACB06/24/11-65.8%-9.2%-56.6%
Sell HPQ11/20/12-59.9%-9.0%-50.9%
Sell ZIP11/19/12-58.6%-10.3%-48.3%
Sell FB09/04/12-47.9%-0.4%-47.5%
Buy QCOR09/07/12-47.8%-0.7%-47.0%
Buy OCLR02/22/11-44.7%1.0%-45.7%
Sell TRLA11/29/12-52.4%-7.2%-45.3%

Cramer underperformed the index on both his Buy and Sell recommendations, although his sells did even worse, with the stocks rising 4.9% on average versus 3.2% for the S&P.

BuySell (Short)
# of Picks494122
Cramer1.1%-4.9%
S&P2.4%-3.2%
Relative-135-173

We will provide quarterly updates on Cramer’s performance going forward.

Can you pick stocks better than Jim Cramer? For those new to PunditTracker, we allow users to compete with pundits. Click here to visit our Finance page and start making predictions on various financial events, including Apple’s quarterly performance tomorrow (using the “Vote Now” buttons).

 

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]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/jim-cramers-mad-money-picks-2011-and-2012-recap/feed/ 1 NBA Regular Season 2012/13: How The Pundits Fared http://blog.pundittracker.com/nba-regular-season-2012-how-the-pundits-fared/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nba-regular-season-2012-how-the-pundits-fared http://blog.pundittracker.com/nba-regular-season-2012-how-the-pundits-fared/#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 07:42:34 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2325 With the playoffs tipping off tomorrow, let’s revisit how the pundits did with their regular season predictions. We are tracking the predictions of 35 ESPN pundits across 11 categories: 6 division winners, 2 conference winners, overall champion, MVP, and Rookie of the Year. In this post, we will analyze the 6 division winners and MVP/ROY, assuming [...]

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]]> With the playoffs tipping off tomorrow, let’s revisit how the pundits did with their regular season predictions. We are tracking the predictions of 35 ESPN pundits across 11 categories: 6 division winners, 2 conference winners, overall champion, MVP, and Rookie of the Year. In this post, we will analyze the 6 division winners and MVP/ROY, assuming that LeBron James and Damian Lillard win the player awards, respectively.

The table is ranked by Yield, although you can sort by # correct as well. As a reminder, the Yield metric calibrates predictions for boldness by measuring the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections.

PunditAtlCtlSENWSWPacRoYMVP#Yield
Kevin ArnovitzBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardJames6$1.47
Nick FriedellBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardJames6$1.47
Dave McMenaminBKNINDMIAOKCMEMLALLillardJames5$1.27
Israel GutierrezBOSINDMIAOKCSALACDavisPaul5$1.21
Brian WindhorstBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant5$1.12
Beckley MasonBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant5$1.12
Mike MazzeoBOSINDMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant5$1.12
David ThorpePHICHIMIADENSALALLillardJames4$1.11
Marc SteinBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Chris PalmerBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Larry CoonBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Royce WebbBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Tom HaberstrohBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Maurice BrooksBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Arash MarkaziBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Chris ForsbergBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Ian BegleyBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Vegas FavoritesBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisJames5$1.04
Scoop JacksonBOSINDMIAOKCMEMLACDrummondPaul4$1.02
Justin VerrierBOSINDMIADENSALALLillardDurant4$0.98
R. ShelburneBOSINDMIAOKCMEMLALLillardPaul4$0.93
Tim LeglerBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant4$0.90
Keith LipscombBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALLillardDurant4$0.90
John HollingerBOSINDMIADENSALALDavisJames4$0.89
Chad FordBOSINDMIADENSALALDavisJames4$0.89
Adena AndrewsBOSINDMIAOKCMEMLALDavisJames4$0.84
Jackie MacMullanBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALDavisJames4$0.82
Tim MacMahonBOSCHIMIAOKCSALALDavisJames4$0.82
Chris RamsayBOSINDMIADENMEMLALDavisJames3$0.70
J.A. AdandeBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisDurant4$0.69
Chris BroussardBOSINDMIAOKCSALALDavisDurant4$0.69
Michael WallaceBOSINDMIAOKCSALALKidd-GilchristPaul4$0.69
Henry AbbottPHIINDMIAOKCSALALDrummondDurant4$0.69
Jack RamsayPHIINDMIAOKCSALALSullingerWade4$0.69
Bruce BowenBKNINDMIAOKCSALALDavisDurant4$0.69
Adry TorresBKNINDMIAOKCMEMLALDavisDurant3$0.50

Here is a breakdown of the percentage of pundits that got each category correct, alongside the Vegas implied odds for each winner before the season began. For instance, not one of the pundits picked the Knicks to win the Atlantic while only two picked the Clippers to win the Pacific, even though Vegas gave each of them 24% odds.

Category% of PunditsVegas Odds
Knicks Win Atlantic0%24%
Pacers Win Central86%57%
Heat Win Southeast100%95%
Thunder Win Northwest86%86%
Spurs Win Southwest83%64%
Clippers Win Pacific6%24%
LeBron James Wins MVP54%36%
Damian Lillard Wins ROY31%29%

Finally, let’s look at the Finals and Championship predictions for the group.

PunditYield
(Reg Season 2012)		EastWestChampion
Kevin Arnovitz$1.47MIAOKCMIA
Nick Friedell$1.47MIALALMIA
Dave McMenamin$1.27MIALALMIA
Israel Gutierrez$1.21MIALALMIA
Beckley Mason$1.12MIAOKCOKC
Brian Windhorst$1.12MIAOKCMIA
Mike Mazzeo$1.12MIALALMIA
David Thorpe$1.11MIALALMIA
Arash Markazi$1.04MIALALLAL
Chris Forsberg$1.04BOSLALLAL
Chris Palmer$1.04MIALALMIA
Ian Begley$1.04MIALALMIA
Larry Coon$1.04MIALALLAL
Marc Stein$1.04MIALALMIA
Maurice Brooks$1.04MIALALLAL
Royce Webb$1.04MIAOKCMIA
Tom Haberstroh$1.04MIALALMIA
Scoop Jackson$1.02MIALALMIA
Justin Verrier$0.98MIAOKCMIA
R. Shelburne$0.93MIALALMIA
Keith Lipscomb$0.90MIAOKCMIA
Tim Legler$0.90MIAOKCMIA
Chad Ford$0.89MIALALMIA
John Hollinger$0.89MIASAMIA
Adena Andrews$0.84MIALALLAL
Jackie MacMullan$0.82MIALALLAL
Tim MacMahon$0.82MIALALMIA
Chris Ramsay$0.70MIALALLAL
Bruce Bowen$0.69MIAOKCMIA
Chris Broussard$0.69MIALALMIA
Henry Abbott$0.69MIALALMIA
J.A. Adande$0.69MIALALMIA
Jack Ramsay$0.69MIAOKCMIA
Michael Wallace$0.69MIALALMIA
Adry Torres$0.50MIALALLAL

Can you do better than these so-called experts? There are still a few hours left to make your predictions for the Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs. Will the Knicks beat the Celtics and the Clippers defeat the Grizzlies, as Kevin Arnovitz is predicting? Make your predictions by visiting our Sports page and using the “Vote Now” buttons.

 

 

The post NBA Regular Season 2012/13: How The Pundits Fared appeared first on Pundits & Predictions Blog | PunditTracker.

]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/nba-regular-season-2012-how-the-pundits-fared/feed/ 0 March Madness 2013: Final Bracket Rankings http://blog.pundittracker.com/march-madness-2013-final-bracket-rankings/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=march-madness-2013-final-bracket-rankings http://blog.pundittracker.com/march-madness-2013-final-bracket-rankings/#comments Tue, 09 Apr 2013 13:44:58 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2309 Here are our final 2013 March Madness bracket rankings. We scored 32 pundits from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, and CBS Sports, throwing in President Obama for good fun. For a recap of the the first two rounds, see this post. The following table ranks the pundits based on their average “Yield” of their 63 total picks. [...]

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]]> Here are our final 2013 March Madness bracket rankings. We scored 32 pundits from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, and CBS Sports, throwing in President Obama for good fun. For a recap of the the first two rounds, see this post.

The following table ranks the pundits based on their average “Yield” of their 63 total picks. As a reminder, the Yield measures the average payout, using Vegas futures odds, had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections. This approach fits well with March Madness, since it mimics bracket scoring systems that award extra points for predicting upsets. Hit Rate is simply the % of predictions that were correct. Given the large number of upsets this year, the rankings by Hit Rate and Yield turned out very different (each column is sortable):

PunditHit RateYield
Gregg Doyel, CBS56%$1.26
Jerry Palm, CBS60%$1.12
Seth Greenberg, ESPN63%$1.09
Dick Vitale, ESPN60%$1.07
Jeff Goodman, CBS62%$1.06
Andy Glockner, SI63%$1.06
John Gasaway, ESPN65%$1.04
Joe Lunardi, ESPN60%$1.04
Brad Evans, Yahoo60%$1.03
Pete Gillen, SI60%$1.03
Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo62%$1.02
Peter Tiernan, CBS63%$1.01
Alaa Abdelnaby, CBS59%$1.00
Wally Szczerbiak, CBS62%$1.00
"Chalk" (higher seed)62%$1.00
Mateen Cleaves, CBS60%$0.99
Pete Thamel, CBS60%$0.98
Gary Parrish, CBS60%$0.97
Matt Norlander, CBS54%$0.97
Jay Bilas, ESPN60%$0.97
Barack Obama60%$0.97
Dennis Dodd, CBS48%$0.96
Vegas Favorites60%$0.95
Greg Anthony, Yahoo56%$0.92
Luke Winn, SI56%$0.91
Dan Wetzel, Yahoo60%$0.91
Stewart Mandel, SI56%$0.90
Seth Davis, SI52%$0.87
Pat Forde, Yahoo54%$0.86
Jeff Borzello, CBS52%$0.86
Kelli Anderson, SI54%$0.85
Andy Katz, ESPN51%$0.77
Michael Wilbon, ESPN44%$0.75
Doug Gottlieb, CBS51%$0.74
Colin Cowherd, ESPN49%$0.68

Gregg Doyel of CBS had the highest yielding bracket, despite not picking Louisville to win it all, mostly because he was the only one of the 32 pundits to have Michigan in the Finals (a strong out-of-consensus pick). When ranked by Hit Rate, John Gasaway of ESPN turned in the best performance, hitting on 41 of his 63 picks.

The worst brackets belonged to Colin Cowherd, Michael Wilbon, Andy Katz, and Doug Gottlieb. Cowherd and Wilbon both got less than half their picks right, while all four of these pundits would have lost you more than 20% of your money had you bet on their picks.

Overall, about half the pundits turned in a positive Yield and outperformed just picking all chalk. Only three had Michigan in Final Four, while only two had Syracuse. 25 of the 32 had Louisville winning it all.

Finally, here are the cumulative rankings for the pundits for whom we tracked brackets in both 2012 and 2013.

PunditHit Rate
(2012 & 13)		Yield
(2012 & 13)
Jeff Goodman, CBS65%$1.13
Peter Tiernan, CBS66%$1.12
Jay Bilas, ESPN67%$1.10
Barack Obama66%$1.10
Gregg Doyel, CBS55%$1.09
Jerry Palm, CBS61%$1.08
Joe Lunardi, ESPN60%$1.00
Matt Norlander, CBS56%$0.99
Dick Vitale, ESPN59%$0.97
Jeff Borzello, CBS57%$0.97
Andy Glockner, SI60%$0.96
Gary Parrish, CBS60%$0.95
Luke Winn, SI58%$0.95
Brad Evans, Yahoo57%$0.95
Dennis Dodd, CBS51%$0.92
Dan Wetzel, Yahoo61%$0.91
Stewart Mandel, SI56%$0.88
Pat Forde, Yahoo54%$0.88
Seth Davis, SI53%$0.86
Colin Cowherd, ESPN57%$0.85
Andy Katz, ESPN54%$0.82

We will be officially adding all these brackets to PunditTracker.com in the coming weeks. In the meantime, there are still a few days left to get your predictions in for the 2013 MLB Season as well as make some NFL Draft related picks. Visit our Sports Page now to do so — just click on the Vote Now buttons.

 

The post March Madness 2013: Final Bracket Rankings appeared first on Pundits & Predictions Blog | PunditTracker.

]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/march-madness-2013-final-bracket-rankings/feed/ 0 MLB Pundits: Rounding Up the 2013 Baseball Predictions http://blog.pundittracker.com/mlb-pundits-rounding-up-the-2013-baseball-predictions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=mlb-pundits-rounding-up-the-2013-baseball-predictions http://blog.pundittracker.com/mlb-pundits-rounding-up-the-2013-baseball-predictions/#comments Thu, 04 Apr 2013 09:00:26 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2246 With the baseball season underway, here is an overview of what the MLB pundits are predicting this year. As we have discussed, despite the concerns about payroll disparity, baseball has proved the toughest sport to predict in recent years. If you had bet $1 on each of the baseball pundit picks over the past three seasons, you [...]

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]]> With the baseball season underway, here is an overview of what the MLB pundits are predicting this year. As we have discussed, despite the concerns about payroll disparity, baseball has proved the toughest sport to predict in recent years. If you had bet $1 on each of the baseball pundit picks over the past three seasons, you would have lost 44% of your money. This compares to an 8% loss for NFL pundits and an 18% gain for NBA pundits.

Will 2013 be be the year in which the MLB pundits turn it around? We will be tracking 63 so-called experts from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox. Here are their aggregate picks across nine categories: six Division Winners, two Pennants, and World Series (the weird formatting is for sorting purposes).

AL(E)AL(C)AL(W)NL(E)NL(C)NL(W)AL
NLW. Series
30: TOR62: DET37: LAA59: WAS52: CIN32: SF39: DET44: WAS28: WAS
29: TB01: KC16: TEX04: ATL11: STL23: LAD12: TB10: CIN23: DET
03: BAL00: CHW10: OAK00: MIA00: CHC07: ARI06: TOR05: LAD04: CIN
01: NYY00: CLE00: SEA00: NYM00: HOU01: SD06: LAA04: ATL03: LAA
00: BOS00: MIN00: PHI00: PIT00: COL03: TB
01: TOR
01: LAD

There is still time for you to make your own picks for all these categories — and compete with the experts to win prizes — on PunditTracker’s Sports page (simply use the VOTE NOW buttons).

As the table shows, Nationals vs. Tigers is the en vogue choice for the World Series. The tightest races, according to the pundits, will be the AL East and NL West, with the group roughly split on whether the Blue Jays or Rays will take the former and the Giants or Dodgers the latter. Interestingly, the Rays and Dodgers are the more popular choices for the AL and NL Pennant, respectively. Some of the more contrarian picks we are tracking include: Dodgers to win the World Series (Andrew Marchand, ESPN), Padres to win the NL West (Joe Sheehan, SI), Royals to win the AL Central (Jon Morosi, Fox), and Yankees to win the AL East (Mark Simon, ESPN).

Here are the predictions for the individual player awards (ESPN did not predict these):

AL MVPNL MVPAL Cy YoungNL Cy YoungAL ROYNL ROY
08: Trout11: Votto10: Verlander09: Strasburg07: Myers06: Gyorko
04: Longoria06: Harper04: Darvish07: Kershaw06: Hicks04: Teheran
03: Cabrera01: Upton02: Price01: Wainwright03: Bundy02: Taveras
02: Bautista01: Posey02: Hernandez01: Hamels02: Profar01: Miller
01: Pujols01: Braun01: Weaver01: Cain01: Maurer01: Eaton
01: Fielder01: Johnson01: Greinke01: Rondo01: Cole
01: Cano01: Ryu
01: Wong
01: D'Arnaud
01: Wheeler

Finally, let’s break out the individual predictions of the pundits we have tracked since 2009 (four seasons of predictions). They are ranked by our Yield metric, which measures the average payout (using Vegas odds) had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections.

Yield
09-12		AL
East		AL
Cent		AL
West		NL
East		NL
Cent		NL
West		ALNLWorld
Series
Jim Caple, ESPN$1.60TORDETLAAATLCINSFDETCINDET
Peter Pascarelli, ESPN$1.10TBDETLAAATLCINSFDETCINDET
Jayson Stark, ESPN$1.07TORDETLAAWASCINLADDETWASWAS
Pedro Gomez, ESPN$0.86TBDETOAKATLCINSFTBCINCIN
Tom Verducci, SI$0.84TBDETLAAWASCINSFTBWASWAS
Vegas Favorites$0.82TORDETLAAWASCINLADTORWASWAS
Albert Chen, SI$0.81TBDETTEXWASCINARIDETCINDET
Joe Lemire, SI$0.78TBDETTEXWASSTLSFTBWASWAS
Buster Olney, ESPN$0.72BALDETOAKWASCINARIDETWASWAS
Ben Reiter, SI$0.68TBDETOAKWASCINLADTBLADTB
Eric Karabell, ESPN$0.57TBDETLAAWASSTLSFTBWASTB
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN$0.37TORDETLAAWASCINLADDETCINCIN

To see how all the pundits we track fared last year, see our 2012 MLB recap post.

 

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]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/mlb-pundits-rounding-up-the-2013-baseball-predictions/feed/ 0 Help Wanted: NFL Draft Project http://blog.pundittracker.com/help-wanted-nfl-draft-project/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=help-wanted-nfl-draft-project http://blog.pundittracker.com/help-wanted-nfl-draft-project/#comments Tue, 26 Mar 2013 20:31:31 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2243 We have previously analyzed how the NFL Draft Pundits (e.g. Kiper, McShay, Mayock) have done with their mock drafts (see here). We would now like to turn our attention to what we view to be a more interesting draft endeavor: figuring out how the pundits’ player rankings actually turn out. In other words, when Mel Kiper [...]

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]]> We have previously analyzed how the NFL Draft Pundits (e.g. Kiper, McShay, Mayock) have done with their mock drafts (see here). We would now like to turn our attention to what we view to be a more interesting draft endeavor: figuring out how the pundits’ player rankings actually turn out. In other words, when Mel Kiper ranks his Top 5 QBs for this year’s draft, how accurate will those rankings be five years down the road?

We are actively discussing many different approaches to evaluate and compare players but we’d like to tap into the knowledge of our user base. If you are interested in this subject, please send us a note (just use the “Who should we track” button at the bottom of the page) and we will follow up with you. Thanks!

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]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/help-wanted-nfl-draft-project/feed/ 1 Now Tracking: Meredith Whitney (Finance) and Douglas Kmiec (Politics) http://blog.pundittracker.com/now-tracking-meredith-whitney-finance-and-douglas-kmiec-politics/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=now-tracking-meredith-whitney-finance-and-douglas-kmiec-politics http://blog.pundittracker.com/now-tracking-meredith-whitney-finance-and-douglas-kmiec-politics/#comments Tue, 26 Mar 2013 20:23:12 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2240 Whitney’s bullish predictions on Bank of America and Discover Financial Kmiec’s predictions on the Supreme Court gay marriage cases

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]]> Whitney’s bullish predictions on Bank of America and Discover Financial

Kmiec’s predictions on the Supreme Court gay marriage cases

The post Now Tracking: Meredith Whitney (Finance) and Douglas Kmiec (Politics) appeared first on Pundits & Predictions Blog | PunditTracker.

]]> http://blog.pundittracker.com/now-tracking-meredith-whitney-finance-and-douglas-kmiec-politics/feed/ 0 March Madness: Which pundit had the best opening weekend Bracket? http://blog.pundittracker.com/march-madness-which-pundit-had-the-opening-weekend-bracket/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=march-madness-which-pundit-had-the-opening-weekend-bracket http://blog.pundittracker.com/march-madness-which-pundit-had-the-opening-weekend-bracket/#comments Tue, 26 Mar 2013 09:00:53 +0000 admin http://blog.pundittracker.com/?p=2212 With the exciting first two rounds of March Madness 2013 in the books, let’s see how the pundits are faring with their brackets so far. We scored 31 experts from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, and CBS Sports, throwing in President Obama for good fun. For a recap of our 2012 rankings, see this post. The [...]

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]]> With the exciting first two rounds of March Madness 2013 in the books, let’s see how the pundits are faring with their brackets so far. We scored 31 experts from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, and CBS Sports, throwing in President Obama for good fun. For a recap of our 2012 rankings, see this post.

The following table ranks the pundits based on their average “Yield” (rightmost column) of their 48 total picks. As a reminder, the Yield measures the average payout, using Vegas odds (futures for Sweet 16), had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections. This approach fits well with March Madness, since it mimics bracket scoring systems that award extra points for predicting upsets. We also break out the results for each round, including by Hit Rate (% correct); each column is sortable.

PunditHit Rate
(Rd of 64)		Yield
(Rd of 64)		Hit Rate
(Rd of 32)		Yield
(Rd of 32)		Hit Rate
(Total)		Yield
(Total)
Seth Greenberg, ESPN69%$0.9775%$1.4271%$1.12
Brad Evans, Yahoo75%$1.1756%$0.8769%$1.07
Andy Glockner, SI72%$1.0769%$1.0671%$1.07
Dennis Dodd, CBS53%$0.7656%$1.5554%$1.02
Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo69%$1.0069%$1.0669%$1.02
Mateen Cleaves, CBS69%$0.9569%$1.1269%$1.01
John Gasaway, ESPN72%$0.9869%$1.0671%$1.01
Pete Gillen, SI72%$1.0256%$0.9767%$1.00
Wally Szczerbiak, CBS69%$0.9669%$1.0669%$0.99
Jeff Goodman, CBS72%$1.0556%$0.8767%$0.99
Jay Bilas, ESPN72%$1.0063%$0.9669%$0.99
"Chalk" (higher seed)69%$0.9469%$1.0669%$0.98
Pete Thamel, CBS72%$1.0456%$0.8567%$0.97
Peter Tiernan, CBS72%$1.0063%$0.9069%$0.96
Dan Wetzel, Yahoo69%$0.9169%$1.0669%$0.96
Barack Obama63%$0.8769%$1.0665%$0.93
Jerry Palm, CBS69%$0.9956%$0.7965%$0.93
Gary Parrish, CBS72%$1.0250%$0.6965%$0.91
Dick Vitale, ESPN66%$0.9163%$0.9065%$0.90
Seth Davis, SI59%$0.8763%$0.9560%$0.90
Greg Anthony, Yahoo66%$0.9156%$0.8863%$0.90
Alaa Abdelnaby, CBS66%$0.9056%$0.8963%$0.90
Kelli Anderson, SI69%$0.9750%$0.6963%$0.88
Colin Cowherd, ESPN69%$0.9450%$0.7163%$0.86
Doug Gottlieb, CBS66%$0.8956%$0.8063%$0.86
Stewart Mandel, SI69%$0.9944%$0.6060%$0.86
Joe Lunardi, ESPN63%$0.8363%$0.9063%$0.86
Gregg Doyel, CBS63%$0.9250%$0.6958%$0.85
Matt Norlander, CBS59%$0.8456%$0.8058%$0.83
Pat Forde, Yahoo59%$0.8156%$0.7958%$0.80
Jeff Borzello, CBS56%$0.7956%$0.7956%$0.79
Andy Katz, ESPN63%$0.8250%$0.6958%$0.78
Luke Winn, SI56%$0.7356%$0.7956%$0.75

Overall, the pundits performed quite poorly, with only 8 of the 31 returning a positive yield and 11 of 31 outperforming “Chalk” (always picking the higher seed). Seth Greenberg of ESPN had the best opening weekend bracket, thanks largely to his pick of Oregon to make the Sweet Sixteen.  Brad Evans (Yahoo) and Andy Glockner (SI) tied for the second spot ($1.07), with Evans posting the best Round 1 hit rate (24/32) and Yield ($1.17) of the group.

Here is how the pundits did collectively with their Sweet Sixteen predictions, with only Greenberg picking Oregon and Dennis Dodd (CBS) picking Wichita State. No one pegged La Salle or Florida Gulf Coast to make it.

Team# Pundits
Louisville31
Michigan St.30
Ohio St.30
Florida30
Duke29
Kansas29
Miami (FL)28
Indiana27
Syracuse22
Michigan16
Marquette13
Arizona5
Oregon1
Wichita St.1
La Salle0
Florida Gulf Coast0

We will update the rankings following the Championship game, using Final Four and Championship futures odds.

Is your bracket already busted? Well, here’s your chance at prediction redemption. PunditTracker allows you to predict each game of the tournament, starting with all the Sweet Sixteen games this week. Click here to make your picks now. The Top 3 Users will become Featured Pundits on our site, meaning that your name could be part of the above rankings next year!

 

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