The MLB Pundits are back. Will they be less of a disaster in 2014?

April 8, 2014  |  Sports

In what is becoming an annual tradition, we ask the question: will this year finally be the one where the baseball pundits turn it around? After a string of terrible prediction seasons from 2009-2012 (see details), the ‘experts’ followed it up with a truly pitiful 2013, in which no one picked either the Red Sox or the Cardinals to make the World Series (or even the Red Sox to win the AL East — details). A whopping 25 of the 29 pundits on our website — all of whom made at least three years worth of picks — have a letter grade of F.

So while an understandable question would be ‘why bother?, let’s give the pundits another shot and see what they are predicting this year. We will be tracking 64 so-called experts from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox. Here are their aggregate picks across nine categories: six Division Winners, two Pennants, and World Series. As always, we give you the chance to make your own predictions to see if you can do better (or at least less worse) than the paid experts.

AL(E)AL(C)AL(W)NL(E)NL(C)NL(W)ALNLW.S.
TB: 39DET: 50OAK: 28WAS: 60STL: 60LAD: 56TB: 25WAS: 25LAD: 17
BOS: 19KC: 11TEX: 24ATL: 4PIT: 3SF: 5DET: 22LAD: 23WAS: 17
BAL: 3CLE: 3LAA: 12MIA: 0CIN: 1ARI: 2BOS: 5STL: 16STL: 12
NYY: 3CHW: 0HOU: 0NYY: 0CHC: 0SD: 1OAK: 4TB: 9
TOR: 0MIN: 0SEA: 0PHI: 0MIL: 0COL: 0KC: 2DET: 6
NYY: 2BOS: 2
TEX: 2CLE: 1
BAL: 1
CLE: 1

As with last year, the Rays and Tigers are the two favorites in the American League, while the Nationals are the slight favorite in the National League. Interestingly, the pundits are predominantly picking the National League winner to take the Fall Classic, with 46 of the 64 picking either the Dodgers, Nationals, or Cardinals. The Tigers and Dodgers are consensus favorites in their divisions, while there is more debate on the other divisions, most notably the AL West. The most notable descrepancies with Vegas odds are the pundits’ optimism on the Nationals (Vegas gives the Braves a good shot in the NL East) and the pessimism, once again, on the Red Sox relative to the Rays.

Now, here is a gigantic table with all the individual World Series picks for this season, along with each pundit’s track record from 2009-2013 (sorted from best to worst, cumulative). The dollar amounts are what we call the ‘$1 Yield’, which is the average payout had you placed on $1 bets on each of the pundit’s nine picks each season, based on Vegas odds at the time. A yield of $1.05, for instance, means the pundit’s average return on investment was +5%. As you can see, only three of the 49 pundits with a track record have a yield higher than $1.00.

Pundit20092010201120122013TotalALNLW.S.
Enrique Rojas, ESPN$1.83$1.73$1.78DETLADLAD
Jim Caple, ESPN$0.56$4.43$0.15$1.26$0.53$1.38DETLADDET
Adam Rubin, ESPN$1.84$0.54$1.19TBWASWAS
Peter Pascarelli, ESPN$1.89$0.55$0.61$1.34$0.53$0.99BOSSTLBOS
Jayson Stark, ESPN$2.01$0.45$0.76$1.06$0.36$0.93TBWASTB
Pedro Gomez, ESPN$1.35$1.34$0.15$0.61$1.18$0.93OAKWASWAS
Ken Rosenthal, Fox$0.81$0.81TBWASWAS
Cliff Corcoran, SI$1.35$1.61$0.27$0.33$0.36$0.78DETSTLSTL
Tim Kurkjian, ESPN$1.74$0.45$0.16$0.78DETSTLSTL
Rob Neyer, Fox$0.78$0.78$0.78TBWASTB
Ben Reiter, SI$0.82$0.78$0.51$0.62$1.01$0.75DETSTLSTL
Buster Olney, ESPN$2.01$0.45$0.27$0.14$0.81$0.73TBSTLSTL
Tom Verducci, SI$1.04$0.45$0.15$1.73$0.16$0.71OAKWASWAS
Albert Chen, SI$0.00$1.39$0.58$1.26$0.16$0.68DETWASWAS
Aaron Boone, ESPN$1.61$0.27$0.61$0.16$0.66TBLADLAD
Karl Ravech, ESPN$0.78$0.15$0.33$1.38$0.66DETWASWAS
Mark Saxon, ESPN$0.51$0.51$0.33$1.19$0.63DETLADLAD
Jon Heyman, CBS$0.85$0.17$0.27$1.19$0.62KCLADLAD
David Schoenfield, ESPN$0.27$0.62$0.81$0.57TBLADTB
Eric Karabell, ESPN$1.51$0.17$0.15$0.43$0.54$0.56TBWASWAS
Tristan Cockcroft, ESPN$0.51$0.42$0.71$0.54TBWASTB
David Kull, ESPN$0.00$0.42$1.19$0.54DETWASWAS
Andrew Marchand, ESPN$0.63$0.61$0.36$0.53DETWASWAS
Mark Simon, ESPN$0.78$0.42$0.62$0.16$0.49BOSWASWAS
A.J. Mass, ESPN$0.33$0.78$0.36$0.49TBWASTB
Gordon Edes, ESPN$0.45$0.51$0.48TBLADTB
Richard Durrett, ESPN$0.45$0.61$0.36$0.47DETLADDET
Matt Szefc, ESPN$0.42$0.33$0.54$0.43DETLADLAD
Brendan Roberts, ESPN$0.66$0.17$0.41DETSTLDET
Joe McDonald, ESPN$0.61$0.42$0.16$0.39BOSWASBOS
Dan Szymborski, ESPN$0.61$0.16$0.38DETSTLDET
Marty Bernoski, ESPN$0.61$0.16$0.38BOSWASWAS
Jon Morosi, Fox$0.38$0.38TBSTLSTL
Jonah Keri, ESPN$0.63$0.33$0.16$0.37DETLADLAD
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN$0.82$0.17$0.15$0.33$0.36$0.37TBSTLSTL
Dayn Perry, CBS$0.36$0.36TBSTLTB
Jay Jaffe, SI$0.36$0.36TBSTLSTL
Jeff Passan, Yahoo$0.36$0.36TBWASWAS
Michael Knisley, ESPN$0.36$0.36BALSTLSTL
Mike Axisa, CBS$0.36$0.36OAKLADLAD
Christina Kahrl, ESPN$0.33$0.36$0.34DETWASDET
Jon Sciambi, ESPN$0.17$0.15$0.33$0.54$0.30TBWASWAS
Dan Shulman, ESPN$0.45$0.15$0.33$0.16$0.27TBSTLSTL
Jim Bowden, ESPN$0.33$0.16$0.24TBLADLAD
Matt Snyder, CBS$0.16$0.16DETLADLAD
Mike Oz, Yahoo$0.16$0.16OAKLADLAD
Tim Brown, Yahoo$0.16$0.16TBLADTB
Joe Sheehan, SI$0.15$0.16$0.15TBSTLSTL
Matt Meyers, ESPN$0.15$0.14$0.16$0.15TEXWASWAS
Anna McDonald, ESPNNYYSTLSTL
Ben Lindbergh, ESPNDETLADLAD
Bill Baer, ESPNBOSLADLAD
C.J. Nitkowski, FoxDETSTLSTL
David Brown, YahooTBWASWAS
Gabe Kapler, FoxTBLADLAD
Hector Cruz, ESPNNYYLADLAD
Jared Cross, ESPNTBLADLAD
Jeff Bennett, ESPNCLELADCLE
Jeremy Lundblad, ESPNDETWASDET
Mark Townsend, YahooDETLADLAD
Rob King, ESPNTEXWASWAS
Scott Spratt, ESPNTBWASTB
Steve Wulf, ESPNKCWASWAS
Tim Keown, ESPNDETLADLAD

To see all the division picks for each pundit as well, see this link.

We will check back on these predictions as the season progresses.

 

March Madness 2014: Bracket Rankings Heading Into Final Four

April 2, 2014  |  Sports

As we count down to the Final Four this week, let’s see which pundit’s bracket is in the best shape. As a reminder, we are tracking 26 ‘experts’ this year (from ESPN, Yahoo, SI, CBS Sports) as well as the President. To revisit our rankings after the first weekend, see our prior post.

First, let’s look at how many pundits collectively pegged each of the Elite Eight and Final Four teams.

Elite 8# of PunditsFinal Four# of Pundits
Florida27Florida19
Michigan St.24Wisconsin3
Arizona23UConn0
Wisconsin12Kentucky0
Michigan10
Dayton0
UConn0
Kentucky0

Not one of the experts we tracked picked Kentucky or UConn to make the Elite Eight, let alone the Final Four. Only three had Wisconsin in the Final Four: Jay Bilas, Seth Davis, and Mateen Cleaves.

Now, here are the updated pundit rankings based on a few metrics.

  • Hit Rate: % of picks that were correct (out of 60 games so far)
  • Yield: average payout had you placed $1 Futures bets on each bracket slot at ‘moneyline’ odds (giving more credit for underdog picks)
  • Points: traditional bracket scoring system (1 point for first round winners, 2 points for second round, 4 for Sweet 16, etc)

PunditHit RateYieldPointsBest PossibleFinal 2Winner
Seth Davis, SI69%$1.0877125Florida v. Wich StFlorida
Pat Forde, Yahoo75%$1.227575Mich St v. ArizonaMich St
Brad Evans, Yahoo77%$1.1774122Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Luke Winn, SI83%$1.3972120Florida v. Wich StFlorida
Dick Vitale, ESPN69%$0.987272Mich St v. LouisvilleMich St
Mateen Cleaves, ESPN67%$0.966969Mich St v. LouisvilleMich St
Brian Hamilton, SI71%$1.066985Arizona v. FloridaArizona
Andy Katz, ESPN75%$1.0668116Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Barack Obama73%$1.006868Mich St v. LouisvilleMich St
Joe Lunardi, ESPN73%$1.0868116Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Chalk71%$0.9768116Florida v. ArizonaFlorida
Jerry Palm, CBS75%$1.146767Mich St v. ArizonaMich St
Jeff Borzello, CBS75%$1.0667115Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Steve Lappas, CBS73%$1.166767Mich St v. LouisvilleMich St
Jeff Goodman, ESPN75%$1.1267115Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Pete Gillen, CBS71%$1.0066114Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Doug Gottlieb, ESPN73%$0.996565Mich St v. LouisvilleMich St
Dennis Dodd, CBS69%$1.166464Louisville v. Mich StLouisville
Jay Bilas, ESPN71%$1.006464Mich St v. LouisvilleMich St
Colin Cowherd, ESPN65%$0.956480Louisville v. FloridaLouisville
Seth Greenberg, ESPN69%$0.986363Mich St v. DukeMich St
Jon Rothstein, CBS79%$1.126262Louisville v. KansasLouisville
Fran Franschilla, ESPN60%$0.8660108Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Gary Parrish, SI60%$0.925555Wich St v. KansasWich St
Pete Thamel, SI65%$0.9455103Florida v. LouisvilleFlorida
Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo69%$0.845454Arizona v. KansasArizona
Gregg Doyel, CBS60%$0.774949Kansas v. ArizonaKansas
Matt Norlander, CBS58%$0.774848Kansas v. CreightonKansas

Overall, brackets have been busted across the board, with the pundits hitting on only 20% of the Final Four teams on average (for a woeful $0.48 Yield). Seth Davis has a narrow lead using the traditional bracket scoring system, with the highest ‘best possible’ score as well, followed by Brad Evans and Luke Winn. Only 9 of the 26 experts outperformed ‘chalk’ (picking the higher seed in every matchup) on this metric, with only five having a higher ‘best possible’ result. Luke Winn maintains his lead based on both aggregate hit rate (83%) and Yield ($1.39), thanks largely to some strong picks in the early rounds.

We will update our rankings next week. In the meantime, head over to PunditTracker to make your picks on the Final Four games. We will grade you alongside the ‘experts’ once the outcomes are in.

 

March Madness 2014: Which pundit had the best opening weekend Bracket?

March 25, 2014  |  Sports

With the exciting first two rounds of March Madness 2014 in the books, let’s see how the pundits are faring with their brackets so far. We are scoring 28 experts from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, and CBS Sports this year, throwing in President Obama for good fun.

Our scoring system assumes you placed $1 Futures bets on each bracket slot at Vegas Moneyline odds based on the pundit’s picks. Here are the rankings for the first two rounds: the Hit Rate represents the % of picks that were correct, while the Yield is the average payout of those picks.

PunditRd of 32
Hit Rate
Rd of 32
Yield
Sweet 16
Hit Rate
Sweet 16
Yield
Cumulative
Hit Rate
Cumulative
Yield
Average74%$1.0664%$1.1771%$1.09
Luke Winn, SI88%$1.4375%$1.8683%$1.57
Dennis Dodd, CBS69%$1.1169%$1.6469%$1.28
Jon Rothstein, CBS81%$1.1375%$1.5779%$1.27
Pat Forde, Yahoo78%$1.2269%$1.3575%$1.26
Brad Evans, Yahoo75%$1.0081%$1.7477%$1.24
Jeff Goodman, ESPN78%$1.1269%$1.4375%$1.22
Steve Lappas, CBS72%$1.0975%$1.4873%$1.22
Jerry Palm, CBS78%$1.2369%$1.1675%$1.21
Jeff Borzello, CBS78%$1.1169%$1.2975%$1.17
Andy Katz, ESPN75%$1.0075%$1.4875%$1.16
Joe Lunardi, ESPN81%$1.2756%$0.8573%$1.13
Brian Hamilton, SI72%$0.9869%$1.3871%$1.11
Doug Gottlieb, CBS78%$1.0963%$1.0373%$1.07
Pete Gillen, CBS69%$0.8975%$1.4371%$1.07
Seth Greenberg, ESPN72%$1.0663%$1.0769%$1.07
Pete Thamel, SI72%$1.0950%$1.0365%$1.07
Barack Obama81%$1.1356%$0.8473%$1.03
Gary Parrish, CBS72%$0.9463%$1.1969%$1.02
Jay Bilas, ESPN75%$1.0363%$0.9871%$1.01
"Chalk"75%$1.0163%$0.9871%$1.00
Seth Davis, SI78%$1.1150%$0.7569%$0.99
Colin Cowherd, ESPN69%$1.0256%$0.8865%$0.98
Dick Vitale, ESPN69%$0.8669%$1.1669%$0.96
Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo75%$0.9756%$0.8569%$0.93
Mateen Cleaves, CBS72%$0.9456%$0.9067%$0.92
Fran Franschilla, ESPN69%$0.9144%$0.7660%$0.86
Gregg Doyel, CBS66%$0.8950%$0.7560%$0.84
Matt Norlander, CBS63%$0.8750%$0.7858%$0.84

Overall, the pundits have done quite well so far, with the majority returning a positive yield as well as outperforming “Chalk” (always picking the higher seeds). Luke Winn of SI leads the pack, followed by Dennis Dodd of CBS; they were the only two experts to have Dayton in the Sweet 16. Luke Winn had the best first round hit rate (28/32), while Brad Evans was 13/16 with his Sweet 16 picks, including Tennessee.

Here is how the pundits did collectively with their Sweet Sixteen predictions. No one had Stanford, while only Pete Gillen, Brad Evans, and Jeff Goodman had Tennessee.

Sweet 16 Team# of Pundits Correct (out of 28)
1. Florida27
4. Louisville27
1. Virginia26
4. Michigan St.26
1. Arizona26
2. Michigan25
3. Iowa St.24
2. Wisconsin23
4. UCLA21
4. San Diego St.19
7. Connecticut11
6. Baylor8
8. Kentucky7
11. Tennessee3
11. Dayton2
10. Stanford0

We will update the rankings as we proceed throughout the tournament.

Bracket already busted? PunditTracker allows you to compete with the experts by picking all of the Sweet 16 games. Head over to our March Madness section to make your picks using the ‘Vote Now’ buttons and see if you can crack our User Leaderboard.

 

 

Myron Medcalf’s (ESPN) March Madness Picks Are In

March 18, 2014  |  Sports

Make your own predictions on each of them here — last day to do so!

Myron Medcalf PunditTracker Profile

March Madness 2014: Whose Bracket Should You Copy?

March 17, 2014  |  Sports

With the March Madness brackets fresh off the presses, which of the so-called experts has a bracket worth using for your office pool?

Here were our final bracket rankings from last year. We scored 32 pundits from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, and CBS Sports.

The following table ranks the pundits based on their average “Yield” of their 63 total picks. The Yield measures the average payout, using Vegas futures odds, had you placed $1 bets on each of the pundit’s selections. This approach fits well with March Madness, since it mimics bracket scoring systems that award extra points for predicting upsets. Hit Rate is simply the % of predictions that were correct. Given the large number of upsets last year, the rankings by Hit Rate and Yield turned out very different (each column is sortable):

PunditHit RateYield
Gregg Doyel, CBS56%$1.26
Jerry Palm, CBS60%$1.12
Seth Greenberg, ESPN63%$1.09
Dick Vitale, ESPN60%$1.07
Jeff Goodman, CBS62%$1.06
Andy Glockner, SI63%$1.06
John Gasaway, ESPN65%$1.04
Joe Lunardi, ESPN60%$1.04
Brad Evans, Yahoo60%$1.03
Pete Gillen, SI60%$1.03
Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo62%$1.02
Peter Tiernan, CBS63%$1.01
Alaa Abdelnaby, CBS59%$1.00
Wally Szczerbiak, CBS62%$1.00
"Chalk" (higher seed)62%$1.00
Mateen Cleaves, CBS60%$0.99
Pete Thamel, CBS60%$0.98
Gary Parrish, CBS60%$0.97
Matt Norlander, CBS54%$0.97
Jay Bilas, ESPN60%$0.97
Barack Obama60%$0.97
Dennis Dodd, CBS48%$0.96
Vegas Favorites60%$0.95
Greg Anthony, Yahoo56%$0.92
Luke Winn, SI56%$0.91
Dan Wetzel, Yahoo60%$0.91
Stewart Mandel, SI56%$0.90
Seth Davis, SI52%$0.87
Pat Forde, Yahoo54%$0.86
Jeff Borzello, CBS52%$0.86
Kelli Anderson, SI54%$0.85
Andy Katz, ESPN51%$0.77
Michael Wilbon, ESPN44%$0.75
Doug Gottlieb, CBS51%$0.74
Colin Cowherd, ESPN49%$0.68

Gregg Doyel of CBS had the highest yielding bracket, despite not picking Louisville to win it all, mostly because he was the only one of the 32 pundits to have Michigan in the Finals (a strong out-of-consensus pick). When ranked by Hit Rate, John Gasaway of ESPN turned in the best performance, hitting on 41 of his 63 picks.

The worst brackets belonged to Colin Cowherd, Michael Wilbon, Andy Katz, and Doug Gottlieb. Cowherd and Wilbon both got less than half their picks right, while all four of these pundits would have lost you more than 20% of your money had you bet on their picks.

Finally, here are the cumulative rankings for the pundits for whom we tracked brackets in both 2012 and 2013.

PunditHit Rate
(2012 & 13)
Yield
(2012 & 13)
Jeff Goodman, CBS65%$1.13
Peter Tiernan, CBS66%$1.12
Jay Bilas, ESPN67%$1.10
Barack Obama66%$1.10
Gregg Doyel, CBS55%$1.09
Jerry Palm, CBS61%$1.08
Joe Lunardi, ESPN60%$1.00
Matt Norlander, CBS56%$0.99
Dick Vitale, ESPN59%$0.97
Jeff Borzello, CBS57%$0.97
Andy Glockner, SI60%$0.96
Gary Parrish, CBS60%$0.95
Luke Winn, SI58%$0.95
Brad Evans, Yahoo57%$0.95
Dennis Dodd, CBS51%$0.92
Dan Wetzel, Yahoo61%$0.91
Stewart Mandel, SI56%$0.88
Pat Forde, Yahoo54%$0.88
Seth Davis, SI53%$0.86
Colin Cowherd, ESPN57%$0.85
Andy Katz, ESPN54%$0.82

We’ll be back next week to recap bracket rankings for the opening weekend.

For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. Head over to our March Madness section now and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your own Final Four picks.

Which Super Bowl picks should you listen (and not listen) to?

January 29, 2014  |  Sports

Here is how the 24 NFL game pickers we are tracking fared with their weekly picks this year, sorted best-to-worst by season Yield, along with their Super Bowl picks. As a reminder, Yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds. As a group, the ‘experts’ added no value this year, with a collective yield of $1.00.

PunditRecordHit Rate$1 YieldSuper Bowl Pick
Ron Jaworski, ESPN181-8468%$1.08Broncos
Prediction Machine, CBS182-8369%$1.05Seahawks
Mike Ditka, ESPN169-9664%$1.05Broncos
Vegas Favorites185-8070%$1.05Broncos
Dave Richard, CBS177-8867%$1.05Seahawks
Seth Wickersham, ESPN171-9465%$1.04Seahawks
Ryan Wilson, CBS173-9265%$1.04Seahawks
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS176-8966%$1.03Broncos
K.C. Joyner, ESPN175-9066%$1.03Broncos
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN166-9963%$1.02Seahawks
Tom Jackson, ESPN170-9564%$1.01Broncos
Chris Mortensen, ESPN171-9465%$1.01Broncos
John Breech, CBS172-9365%$1.00Seahawks
Mark Schlereth, ESPN170-9564%$1.00Broncos
Will Brinson, CBS165-10062%$1.00Broncos
Merril Hoge, ESPN165-10062%$0.99Broncos
Adam Schefter, ESPN170-9564%$0.98Broncos
Cris Carter, ESPN170-9564%$0.97Seahawks
Pete Prisco, CBS167-9863%$0.97Broncos
Josh Katzowitz, CBS164-10162%$0.96Broncos
Eric Allen, ESPN165-10062%$0.96Broncos
Mike Golic, ESPN164-10162%$0.96Seahawks
Frank Schwab, Yahoo161-9862%$0.95
Jason La Canfora, CBS154-11158%$0.93Seahawks
Average64%$1.00

We will update the full weekly rankings (2011-13) after the Super Bowl. For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own Super Bowl pick — as well as several prop bets —  head over to our Sports section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the NFL ‘experts’, we will hold you accountable after the game!

 

NFL: Which Pundits Predicted A Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl?

January 27, 2014  |  Sports

We have recently recapped the awful performances of baseball and college football pundits — both groups whiffed entirely on either of the championship game participants. Did the NFL pundits do any better with their preseason predictions? We tracked 63 ‘experts’ from CBS, ESPN, NFL.com, and Sports Illustrated.

First, here were the aggregate picks for Conference and Super Bowl winners.

AFCNFCSuper Bowl
Broncos: 31Seahawks: 24Seahawks: 16
Patriots: 1149ers: 1849ers: 14
Texans: 10Falcons: 13Broncos: 13
Bengals: 10Packers: 7Falcons: 7
Colts: 1Saints: 1Packers: 7
Patriots: 4
Bengals: 1
Texans: 1

The group did quite well this season, with 49% of the pundits picking the Broncos to win the AFC (Vegas pegged their odds at 33%) and 38% selecting the Seahawks in the NFC (Vegas = 17%).

Now here are the individual selections. 13 of the 63 pundits picked both the Broncos and Seahawks to make the Super Bowl, including Jim Trotter of SI.com, who has been the best preseason prognosticator of the group since we started tracking them (he was one of two to predict the Harbaugh Bowl last year). Another 16 picked either the Broncos or Seahawks to win it all.

PunditNetworkAFCNFCSuper Bowl
Austin MurphySIDENSEADEN
Ben GoesslingESPNDENSEADEN
Bill BarnwellESPNDENSEASEA
Chris BurkeSIDENSEASEA
Elliot HarrisonNFLDENSEASEA
James WalkerESPNDENSEASEA
Jim TrotterSIDENSEADEN
Judy BattistaNFLDENSEASEA
Nick WagonerESPNDENSEASEA
Pat KirwanCBSDENSEADEN
Rich CiminiESPNDENSEASEA
Rick ReillyESPNDENSEADEN
Rob DemovskyESPNDENSEADEN
Adam SchefterESPNNESEASEA
Bill SimmonsESPNNESEASEA
Kimberly JonesNFLDENSFDEN
Mike WellsESPNDENSFDEN
Ryan WilsonCBSNESEASEA
Todd ArcherESPNDENSFDEN
Gil BrandtNFLCINSEASEA
Jason La CanforaCBSCINSEASEA
John ClaytonESPNDENATLDEN
Josh KatzowitzCBSDENATLDEN
KC JoynerESPNDENATLDEN
Michael C. WrightESPNHOUSEASEA
Mike SandoESPNHOUSEASEA
Mike SilverNFLCINSEASEA
Scott BrownESPNDENNODEN
Terry BlountESPNHOUSEASEA
Bucky BrooksNFLDENSFSF
Ian RapoportNFLDENSFSF
Jeff LegwoldESPNDENSFSF
Jeffri ChadihaESPNDENSFSF
Paul KuharskyESPNDENSFSF
Peter KingSINESEANE
Phil SheridanESPNNESEANE
Ashley FoxESPNDENATLATL
David FlemingESPNDENGBGB
Jamison HensleyESPNDENATLATL
Jeff DarlingtonNFLDENATLATL
John KeimESPNDENGBGB
Pat YasinskasESPNDENATLATL
Adam ScheinNFLHOUATLATL
Adam TeicherESPNHOUSFHOU
Albert BreerNFLCINSFSF
Ben EagleSIHOUGBGB
Bill WilliamsonESPNCINSFSF
Dan GrazianoESPNHOUATLATL
Daniel JeremiahNFLNEATLNE
David NewtonESPNCINSFSF
Don BanksSICINGBGB
Doug FarrarSIHOUGBGB
John BreechCBSCINSFSF
Kevin SeifertESPNHOUSFSF
Matt WilliamsonESPNNEGBGB
Michael DiRoccoESPNNESFSF
Mike ReissESPNNESFSF
Mike RodakESPNNESFSF
Pete PriscoCBSCINATLCIN
Seth WickershamESPNINDATLATL
Tania GanguliESPNHOUSFSF
Tom MantzouranisSICINGBGB
Will BrinsonCBSNEATLNE

We will update the full preseason rankings (2009-13) after the Super Bowl. For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own Super Bowl pick — as well as several prop bets —  head over to our Sports section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the NFL ‘experts’, we will hold you accountable after the game!

 

How did the NFL Experts do with their Division predictions?

January 2, 2014  |  Sports

Let’s look at how the 57 NFL Pundits we are tracking fared with their preseason predictions for the division winners. First, here were their collective predictions:

NFC(E)NFC(N)NFC(S)NFC(W)
24: NYG48: GB46: ATL29: SEA
16: WAS06: CHI09: NO28: SF
16: DAL02: MIN02: TB00: STL
01: PHI01: DET00: CAR00: ARI

AFC(E)AFC(N)AFC(S)AFC(W)
57: NE39: CIN49: HOU56: DEN
00: BUF15: BAL08: IND01: KC
00: MIA03: PIT00: TEN00: OAK
00: NYJ00: CLE00: JAC00: SD

The pundits collectively whiffed on the NFL South, with only one pundit (Adam Schein) picking the Eagles in the NFC East and only eight picking the Colts in the AFC South.

Now here are the results on an individual basis, sorted by Yield (the average return had you bet $1 on each of the picks at Moneyline Odds).

PunditAFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC WestNFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC WestHit RateYield
Overall57/5739/578/5756/571/5748/570/5729/574/8$0.97
Ben GoesslingNECININDDENWASGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Bill WilliamsonNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Peter KingNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Albert BreerNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Kimberly JonesNECININDDENNYGGBATLSF5/8$1.35
Colin CowherdNEPITINDDENDALGBNOSEA5/8$1.26
Adam ScheinNEBALHOUDENPHIGBATLSF4/8$1.22
John ClaytonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
David FlemingNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
KC JoynerNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Adam SchefterNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Rich CiminiNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Terry BlountNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
John KeimNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
Phil SheridanNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Nick WagonerNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Don BanksNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Ben EagleNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Doug FarrarNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSEA5/8$1.19
Tom MantzouranisNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Jim TrotterNECINHOUDENWASGBTBSEA5/8$1.19
Elliot HarrisonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSEA5/8$1.19
Gil BrandtNECININDDENDALDETATLSF4/8$1.14
Austin MurphyNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Bucky BrooksNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Mike SilverNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Bill SimmonsNECINHOUDENNYGCHIATLSEA4/8$0.98
Mike ReissNEBALINDDENNYGGBNOSF4/8$0.97
Jeffri ChadihaNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Rick ReillyNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Scott BrownNECINHOUDENWASGBNOSF4/8$0.90
Tania GanguliNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Mike RodakNECINHOUDENNYGGBNOSF4/8$0.90
Mike WellsNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Dan GrazianoNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Michael C. WrightNECINHOUDENDALGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Pat YasinskasNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Jeff DarlingtonNECINHOUDENWASGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Judy BattistaNECINHOUDENNYGGBATLSF4/8$0.90
Ashley FoxNEBALHOUDENWASGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Mike SandoNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Matt WilliamsonNEBALHOUDENWASGBNOSEA4/8$0.82
Jamison HensleyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
James WalkerNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Rob DemovskyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Chris BurkeNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Daniel JeremiahNEBALHOUDENDALGBATLSEA4/8$0.82
Adam TeicherNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSF3/8$0.69
David NewtonNECINHOUDENNYGMINNOSF3/8$0.69
Ian RapoportNECINHOUDENDALCHIATLSF3/8$0.69
Bill BarnwellNEPITHOUKCNYGGBTBSEA3/8$0.66
Kevin SeifertNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Seth WickershamNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Michael DiRoccoNEBALHOUDENWASGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Paul KuharskyNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Jeff LegwoldNEBALHOUDENNYGGBATLSF3/8$0.52
Todd ArcherNEPITHOUDENWASMINATLSF2/8$0.31

No pundit got more than 5 of the 8 divisions correct. Those with the best yields generally picked the Colts, as Vegas pegged their odds to win the AFC South at just 28% (Texans were the overwhelming favorite). The Eagles were given an 18% probability by Vegas, which makes it surprising that only Schein made that pick, while the Panthers were 15%.

To see what these pundits collectively picked for the conference winners and player awards, see our preseason recap post.

There is still time to make your own picks for this week’s Wild Card games and see if you can move up our User Leaderboard. Head over to our Sports Section to do so.

 

NFL Pundit Rankings: Week 15 Update

December 18, 2013  |  Sports

We last checked in on how the NFL experts were doing with their game picks back in Week 11. Let’s see the updated rankings through Week 15, sorted by $1 Yield, which is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds.

Yield12131415SeasonSeason Hit Rate
Average$0.88$1.06$1.12$0.86$0.9963%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN$0.77$1.20$0.94$1.06$1.0767%
Dave Richard, CBS$1.20$1.20$1.28$1.29$1.0666%
Mike Ditka, ESPN$1.56$0.86$1.15$1.00$1.0563%
K.C. Joyner, ESPN$0.72$1.17$1.58$0.75$1.0466%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN$0.92$0.66$1.23$0.89$1.0462%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN$0.96$1.57$1.22$0.89$1.0364%
Vegas Favorites$0.86$1.27$1.26$0.95$1.0268%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS$0.93$1.04$1.20$0.86$1.0165%
Ryan Wilson, CBS$1.00$1.17$1.10$0.75$1.0163%
Tom Jackson, ESPN$0.51$1.07$0.98$0.63$1.0062%
John Breech, CBS$0.90$1.07$1.06$0.86$0.9964%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN$1.03$1.00$1.11$0.96$0.9962%
Adam Schefter, ESPN$0.89$1.39$1.22$1.09$0.9863%
Cris Carter, ESPN$0.89$1.18$1.31$0.74$0.9764%
Merril Hoge, ESPN$0.92$0.87$1.19$0.74$0.9762%
Will Brinson, CBS$0.98$1.03$0.89$0.86$0.9761%
Pete Prisco, CBS$1.03$1.24$1.11$0.74$0.9762%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo$0.76$0.91$1.45$0.52$0.9662%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN$0.89$1.03$0.98$0.86$0.9661%
Mike Golic, ESPN$0.62$0.73$1.04$0.75$0.9561%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS$0.34$1.05$0.98$0.85$0.9360%
Jason La Canfora, CBS$0.75$0.75$0.73$1.03$0.9357%
Eric Allen, ESPN$0.89$1.20$0.94$0.86$0.9160%

Ron Jaworski maintains his slight lead in the rankings while Eric Allen remains in last place. There have been several notable changes, however, including, Dave Richard leaping from the middle of the pack to #2 after posting the best record in three of the past four weeks (9-4, 12-4, 12-4, 12-4).

Mike Ditka (#3) continues to lead the group as far as pegging big upsets, as evidenced in Week 12 when he picked both Tampa Bay to beat Detroit (only pundit to do so) and Jacksonville to defeat Houston (one of two).

Les Carpenter has been removed from the rankings as his picks are no longer being logged by Yahoo. Carpenter had been in the second-to-last place this year and had an overall PunditTracker grade of C+ (picks tracked since 2011).

The group whiffed entirely on the Chargers/Broncos and Eagles/Vikings games last week. In aggregate, the experts have added no value this season, posting a collective yield of $0.99.

There is still time to make your own Week 16 picks and find yourself alongside the experts in our rankings. Head over to our NFL Section to do so.

 

Which Experts Predicted a Florida St-Auburn Title Game?

December 11, 2013  |  Sports

A few months back, we outlined the prediction ineptitude of baseball pundits, who went 0-for-63 on predicting either the Red Sox or Cardinals to make the World Series. In fact, not one pundit picked the Red Sox to win even their division.

Well, the MLB pundits now have some company, as none of the 30 college pundits we tracked (from ESPN, CBS, and NFL.com) picked either Florida State or Auburn to make the BCS Title game. Instead, here is what they predicted going into the season.

BCS Championship Matchup# PunditsComments
Alabama-Ohio St11
Alabama-Oregon7
Alabama-Stanford6
Alabama-Oklahoma St1Todd McShay
LSU-Stanford1Desmond Howard
Oregon-Clemson1Danny Kannell
Texas A&M-Ohio St1Spencer Tillman
Alabama-Clemson1Gary Danielson
Louisville-Ohio St1Tim Brando

We also tracked 35 pundits who make predictions on conference winners for each of the six “BCS Conferences.” First, here were the collective picks.

AmericanACCBig 12Big TenPac 12SEC
Louisville (35)Clemson (24)Texas (13)Ohio St (33)Oregon (19)Alabama (32)
Florida St (8)Oklahoma St (10)Michigan (2)Stanford (15)Georgia (1)
Miami (3)Baylor (5)UCLA (1)LSU (1)
Oklahoma (4)Texas A&M (1)
TCU (3)

Only eight of the pundits picked Florida St to win the ACC, while the pundits whiffed entirely on the American, Big Ten, and SEC. Now here are the individual results, sorted by Yield. Recall that Yield measures the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s predictions based on moneyline odds. The idea is to give pundits more credit for out-of-consensus picks.

PunditAmericanACCBig 12Big TenPac 12SECHit RateYield
Total Tally0/358/355/350/3515/350/3511%$0.66
Bruce FeldmanLOUCLEMBAYOSUSTANBAMA33%$3.01
Jerry HinnenLOUFSUBAYOSUOREGBAMA33%$2.66
Brian GrieseLOUCLEMBAYOSUOREGBAMA13%$1.56
Travis HaneyLOUCLEMBAYOSUOREGBAMA13%$1.56
Dan GreenspanLOUCLEMBAYOSUOREGBAMA13%$1.56
Lee CorsoLOUFSUTEXOSUSTANBAMA25%$1.13
Rece DavisLOUFSUTEXOSUSTANBAMA25%$1.13
Mike HugueninLOUFSUOKSTOSUSTANBAMA25%$1.13
Tony BarnhartLOUCLEMOKSTOSUSTANBAMA17%$0.93
Dennis DoddLOUCLEMOKSTOSUSTANTAMU17%$0.93
Jerry PalmLOUCLEMTEXOSUSTANBAMA17%$0.93
Tom FornelliLOUCLEMOKLAOSUSTANBAMA17%$0.93
Kirk HerbstreitLOUCLEMOKSTOSUSTANBAMA13%$0.69
Desmond HowardLOUMIAOKSTMICHSTANLSU13%$0.69
Tom LuginbillLOUCLEMTEXOSUSTANBAMA13%$0.69
Trevor MatichLOUCLEMOKSTOSUSTANBAMA13%$0.69
Jesse PalmerLOUCLEMTEXOSUSTANBAMA13%$0.69
Joe SchadLOUMIATEXOSUSTANBAMA13%$0.69
Charles DavisLOUCLEMOKLAOSUSTANBAMA13%$0.69
Jeremy FowlerLOUFSUTEXOSUOREGBAMA17%$0.57
Mark SchlabachLOUFSUTEXOSUOREGBAMA13%$0.43
Daniel JeremiahLOUFSUOKSTOSUOREGBAMA13%$0.43
Chase GoodbreadLOUFSUTEXOSUOREGBAMA13%$0.43
Todd BlackledgeLOUMIATCUOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Paul FinebaumLOUCLEMTEXOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Joey GallowayLOUCLEMOKSTOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Brock HuardLOUCLEMTCUOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Danny KanellLOUCLEMTEXMICHOREGUGA0%$0.00
Ivan MaiselLOUCLEMTEXOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Todd McShayLOUCLEMOKSTOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Chris SpielmanLOUCLEMOKLAOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Andre WareLOUCLEMTCUOSUUCLABAMA0%$0.00
Gil BrandtLOUCLEMTEXOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Bucky BrooksLOUCLEMOKLAOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00
Chip PattersonLOUCLEMOKSTOSUOREGBAMA0%$0.00

To see our grades for Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit and others — and to make your own predictions on the BCS Bowl games and build up your own public track record — visit our NCAA Football master page.

 

  1. Have a pundit you would like us to track? Or some general feedback on the site? Let us know!