We have tracked Karl Rove’s predictions since June 2011. Going into 2013, Rove was 9-for-17 with his predictions (53% hit rate) with a paltry Yield of $0.76, resulting in an F grade. Recall that Yield is our way of calibrating predictions for ‘boldness’ — after all, predicting each day that the sun will rise tomorrow would result in a 100% hit rate but say little about a pundit’s ability. The Yield measures the average return on investment had you bet $1 of each of the pundit’s predictions, based on consensus odds at the time.
In a Wall Street Journal article on January 3 (link here), Rove published his ‘Fearless Forecast” for 2013, which included 11 predictions that we have been tracking. Based on where we stand today, here are the results:
Prediction Boldness Outcome
Obama's approval rating will end the year below 53% Medium TRUE
Unemployment will stay at around 8% Medium FALSE
There will be more Democratic than Republican retirements in the House of Representatives Medium FALSE
The implementation of ObamaCare will be ragged and ugly and prove a political advantage to Republicans Medium TRUE
There will be no grand bargain on the budget Medium TRUE
The debt ceiling will be raised after Obama concedes to spending cuts Medium FALSE
Chris Christie will win New Jersey re-election handily Very Low TRUE
Virginia gubernatorial race will be close (McAullife/Cuccinelli) Medium TRUE
Syria's Bashar Assad will be forced out of power Low FALSE
Hugo Chavez will pass away in 2013 Low TRUE
Fidel Castro will pass away in 2013 Medium FALSE
Rove’s hit the nail on the head with his predictions on Obama’s approval rating and ObamaCare implementation, while he was way off on U.S. unemployment and House of Representative retirements. Overall, he turned in a solid performance, which lifted his overall Yield although his grade remains in F territory.
2013 Results: 6 Right, 5 Wrong (55% hit rate), $1.05 Yield, B Grade
Cumulative Results: 15 Right, 13 Wrong (54% hit rate), $0.88 Yield, F Grade
To see all of Karl Rove’s predictions or to make your own predictions on various political issues — including which will party will win the House and Senate in 2014 — visit our Politics master page.
Here is what the McLaughlin Group pundits predicted on this week’s show.
Will the individual healthcare mandate be delayed by one year?
Pat Buchanan: Yes
Eleanor Clift: No
Mort Zuckerman: Yes
Chris Matthews: No
John McLaughlin: Yes
Will Rand Paul be the 2016 GOP Presidential nominee?
Chris Matthews: Yes
Eleanor Clift: Yes
Mort Zuckerman: No
Make your own prediction on each of these items for a limited time in our Politics section.
Only a few days left to make your own predictions on what’s going to happen (click here)
- Susan Ferrechio (PT Grade: B): Syria resolution will not pass Congress
- Guy Taylor: Syria resolution will not pass Congress but Obama will go ahead with strike anyways
On January 18, 2013, the McLaughlin Group pundits made predictions on whether ‘a bipartisan bill on immigration [would] be passed by Labor Day’. Here is what they said:
Eleanor Clift: Yes
Clarence Page: Yes
John McLaughlin: Yes
Pat Buchanan: No
Tim Carney: No
So, 3 of the 5 got it wrong.
This prediction is now open for voting — only a few days to make your call!
Here are some of the recent predictions that have been added to PunditTracker.com that are still open for voting — get them right and you’ll move up our user leaderboard! Click here to see them all.
- Gene Munster: 16 predictions on Apple Inc, including his latest take on the Apple television set
- Jeremy Siegel: Dow Jones Index will close the year between 16000-17000
- Andy Xie: Price of gold will top $3,000 per ounce by July 2018
- Terence Burnham: Dow Jones Index will hit 5,000 before it hits 20,000
- Bill O’Reilly: Hillary Clinton projects on CNN and NBC will not air before 2016
- Ryan Grim: Chris Christie will win the GOP nomination
- Rush Limbaugh: Chris Christie will win the Democratic nomination
- Chris Matthews: Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination
- Christ Matthews: Rand Paul will win the GOP nomination
- John McLaughlin: Edward Snowden will not go to trial
- Pat Buchanan: DOJ will not prosecute George Zimmerman
- College Football: Almost 40 new predictions on the season, including picks for the BCS Champion, Heisman Trophy winner, and various Bowl Games
- Colin Cowherd’s NFL predictions, including Over/Under for each team and all the Division Winners
- Mark Schlereth’s NFL predictions
- Box Office predictions for Aug 23-25: You’re Next, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, and The Mortal Instruments
- Skyler White’s fate on Breaking Bad
Prediction made during this week’s McLaughlin Group.
Make your own predictions on Snowden’s fate in our Politics section.
“This is what I do for a living”
Link to Chris Matthews’ PT Profile, where you can make your own prediction on whether Paul will be the nominee or not
Limbaugh predicts that Christie will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2016. We have created a new PunditTracker profile for Rush and you can vote on this prediction now.
All the McLaughlin Group pundits agreed this week that Anthony Weiner would resign frmo the NYC mayoral race:
YouTube video (predictions at end)
Still a few days to make your own prediction on our Politics page!