How Accurate were Karl Rove’s ‘Fearless’ Predictions for 2013?

December 9, 2013  |  Politics

We have tracked Karl Rove’s predictions since June 2011. Going into 2013, Rove was 9-for-17 with his predictions (53% hit rate) with a paltry Yield of $0.76, resulting in an F grade. Recall that Yield is our way of calibrating predictions for ‘boldness’ — after all, predicting each day that the sun will rise tomorrow would result in a 100% hit rate but say little about a pundit’s ability. The Yield measures the average return on investment had you bet $1 of each of the pundit’s predictions, based on consensus odds at the time.

In a Wall Street Journal article on January 3 (link here), Rove published his ‘Fearless Forecast” for 2013, which included 11 predictions that we have been tracking. Based on where we stand today, here are the results:

PredictionBoldnessOutcome
Obama's approval rating will end the year below 53%MediumTRUE
Unemployment will stay at around 8%MediumFALSE
There will be more Democratic than Republican retirements in the House of RepresentativesMediumFALSE
The implementation of ObamaCare will be ragged and ugly and prove a political advantage to RepublicansMediumTRUE
There will be no grand bargain on the budgetMediumTRUE
The debt ceiling will be raised after Obama concedes to spending cutsMediumFALSE
Chris Christie will win New Jersey re-election handilyVery LowTRUE
Virginia gubernatorial race will be close (McAullife/Cuccinelli)MediumTRUE
Syria's Bashar Assad will be forced out of powerLowFALSE
Hugo Chavez will pass away in 2013LowTRUE
Fidel Castro will pass away in 2013MediumFALSE

Rove’s hit the nail on the head with his predictions on Obama’s approval rating and ObamaCare implementation, while he was way off on U.S. unemployment and House of Representative retirements. Overall, he turned in a solid performance, which lifted his overall Yield although his grade remains in F territory.

Final Tally

2013 Results: 6 Right, 5 Wrong (55% hit rate), $1.05 Yield, B Grade

Cumulative Results: 15 Right, 13 Wrong (54% hit rate), $0.88 Yield, F Grade

To see all of Karl Rove’s predictions or to make your own predictions on various political issues — including which will party will win the House and Senate in 2014 — visit our Politics master page.

 

McLaughlin Group on Individual Mandate, Rand Paul

November 3, 2013  |  Politics

Here is what the McLaughlin Group pundits predicted on this week’s show.

Will the individual healthcare mandate be delayed by one year?

Pat Buchanan: Yes

Eleanor Clift: No

Mort Zuckerman: Yes

Chris Matthews: No

John McLaughlin: Yes

 

Will Rand Paul be the 2016 GOP Presidential nominee?

Chris Matthews: Yes

Eleanor Clift: Yes

Mort Zuckerman: No

 

Make your own prediction on each of these items for a limited time in our Politics section.

McLaughlin Group: New Predictions on Syria

September 8, 2013  |  Politics

Only a few days left to make your own predictions on what’s going to happen (click here)

  • Susan Ferrechio (PT Grade: B): Syria resolution will not pass Congress
  • Guy Taylor: Syria resolution will not pass Congress but Obama will go ahead with strike anyways

Link to McLaughlin Group video here

 

Revisiting Predictions on Immigration Reform

September 3, 2013  |  Politics

On January 18, 2013, the McLaughlin Group pundits made predictions on whether ‘a bipartisan bill on immigration [would] be passed by Labor Day’. Here is what they said:

Eleanor Clift: Yes

Clarence Page: Yes

John McLaughlin: Yes

Pat Buchanan: No

Tim Carney: No

So, 3 of the 5 got it wrong.

 

Links below:

McLaughlin Group Transcript (1/18/13)

McLaughlin Group PunditTracker Profiles

 

Will Congress approve a military strike against Syria?

September 2, 2013  |  Politics

This prediction is now open for voting — only a few days to make your call!

Link

Plenty of new predictions for you to vote on!

August 18, 2013  |  Finance, Politics, Sports

Here are some of the recent predictions that have been added to PunditTracker.com that are still open for voting — get them right and you’ll move up our user leaderboard! Click here to see them all.

Finance

  • Gene Munster: 16 predictions on Apple Inc, including his latest take on the Apple television set
  • Jeremy Siegel: Dow Jones Index will close the year between 16000-17000
  • Andy Xie: Price of gold will top $3,000 per ounce by July 2018
  • Terence Burnham: Dow Jones Index will hit 5,000 before it hits 20,000

Politics

  • Bill O’Reilly: Hillary Clinton projects on CNN and NBC will not air before 2016
  • Ryan Grim: Chris Christie will win the GOP nomination
  • Rush Limbaugh: Chris Christie will win the Democratic nomination
  • Chris Matthews: Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination
  • Christ Matthews: Rand Paul will win the GOP nomination
  • John McLaughlin: Edward Snowden will not go to trial
  • Pat Buchanan: DOJ will not prosecute George Zimmerman

Sports

  • College Football: Almost 40 new predictions on the season, including picks for the BCS Champion, Heisman Trophy winner, and various Bowl Games
  • Colin Cowherd’s NFL predictions, including Over/Under for each team and all the Division Winners
  • Mark Schlereth’s NFL predictions

Entertainment

  • Box Office predictions for Aug 23-25: You’re Next, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, and The Mortal Instruments
  • Skyler White’s fate on Breaking Bad

John McLaughlin: Edward Snowden will never go to trial

August 12, 2013  |  Politics

Prediction made during this week’s McLaughlin Group.

Make your own predictions on Snowden’s fate in our Politics section.

 

Chris Matthews: Rand Paul will be 2016 GOP Nominee

August 9, 2013  |  Politics

“This is what I do for a living”

Link to Prediction

Link to Chris Matthews’ PT Profile, where you can make your own prediction on whether Paul will be the nominee or not

Rush Limbaugh: Chris Christie will run as Democrat in 2016

July 31, 2013  |  Politics

Limbaugh predicts that Christie will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2016. We have created a new PunditTracker profile for Rush and you can vote on this prediction now.

Link to article

Link to Limbaugh’s PunditTracker Profile (NEW!)

McLaughlin Group in Agreement: Weiner Will Resign

July 28, 2013  |  Politics

All the McLaughlin Group pundits agreed this week that Anthony Weiner would resign frmo the NYC mayoral race:

YouTube video (predictions at end)

Still a few days to make your own prediction on our Politics page!

 

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