And the Oscar for Best Pundit Of 2013 goes to. . . .

February 25, 2013  |  Entertainment

We tracked 22 pundits who made predictions for all 24 categories of the 85th Annual Academy Awards. Here are the results:

[The second column is the # of predictions that turned out correct. The third column is the Yield, which measures the average payout, based on Vegas odds, had you bet $1 on each of the predictions. This gives pundits more credit for out-of-consensus calls, and a Yield above $1.00 means the pundit did better than the consensus view]

PunditHit RateYield
Anthony Breznican, Entertainment Weekly21/24$1.61
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter21/24$1.48
Anne Thompson, Indiewire20/24$1.45
Melena Ryzik, New York Times20/24$1.31
Gary Susman, MovieFone17/24$1.22
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit17/24$1.12
Kris Tapley, HitFix18/24$1.08
Richard Lawson, The Atlantic Wire18/24$1.07
Tom Shone, The Guardian18/24$1.05
Vegas Favorites19/24$1.03
Joel D Amos, Movie Fanatic17/24$1.02
Rotten Tomatoes18/24$1.01
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times17/24$0.96
Peter Knegt, Indiewire17/24$0.94
Guy Lodge, HitFix16/24$0.93
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times16/24$0.89
Joal Ryan, E! Online15/24$0.87
Pete Hammond, Deadline.com15/24$0.86
Kevin Polowy, NextMovie16/24$0.84
Steve Pond, TheWrap15/24$0.83
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture16/24$0.82
Wesley Morris, Grantland11/24$0.69

The Best Pundit award goes to Anthony Breznican of Entertainment Weekly, who got 21/24 picks correct, including non-consensus ones such as “Lincoln” for Production Design and “Skyfall” for Sound Editing (where it earned a tie). Scott Feinberg of the Hollywood Reporter and Anne Thompson of Indiewire also scored high marks, while Wesley Morris of Grantland had a rough showing. Simply going with the favorites — as deemed by the oddsmakers — would have yielded a slightly positive return.

Finally, here are the cumulative rankings of the pundits we track that made predictions for all categories both last year and this year, with Melena Ryzik of the Carpetbagger blog (New York Times) earning the top spot.

PunditLast YearThis YearCumulative
Melena Ryzik, New York Times$1.36$1.31$1.34
Anne Thompson, Indiewire$1.07$1.45$1.26
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit$1.35$1.12$1.24
Kris Tapley, HitFix$1.39$1.08$1.24
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter$0.96$1.48$1.22
Peter Knegt, Indiewire$1.37$0.94$1.16
Vegas Favorites$1.10$1.03$1.07
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times$1.16$0.96$1.06
Pete Hammond, Deadline.com$1.22$0.86$1.04
Steve Pond, TheWrap$1.14$0.83$0.99
Guy Lodge, HitFix$1.01$0.93$0.97
Rotten Tomatoes$0.83$1.01$0.92
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture$1.01$0.82$0.92
Kevin Polowy, NextMovie$0.95$0.84$0.90
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times$0.73$0.89$0.81

 

Update: We originally had Kris Tapley scored at 17/24, which was incorrect. This has been fixed.

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  1. It’s Official: I Am a Below-Average Oscar Pundit | Joal Ryan
  2. How the Bagger's Predictions Worked Out - NYTimes.com

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