We tracked 22 pundits who made predictions for all 24 categories of the 85th Annual Academy Awards. Here are the results:

[The second column is the # of predictions that turned out correct. The third column is the Yield, which measures the average payout, based on Vegas odds, had you bet $1 on each of the predictions. This gives pundits more credit for out-of-consensus calls, and a Yield above $1.00 means the pundit did better than the consensus view]

Pundit	Hit Rate	Yield
Anthony Breznican, Entertainment Weekly	21/24	$1.61
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter	21/24	$1.48
Anne Thompson, Indiewire	20/24	$1.45
Melena Ryzik, New York Times	20/24	$1.31
Gary Susman, MovieFone	17/24	$1.22
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit	17/24	$1.12
Kris Tapley, HitFix	18/24	$1.08
Richard Lawson, The Atlantic Wire	18/24	$1.07
Tom Shone, The Guardian	18/24	$1.05
Vegas Favorites	19/24	$1.03
Joel D Amos, Movie Fanatic	17/24	$1.02
Rotten Tomatoes	18/24	$1.01
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times	17/24	$0.96
Peter Knegt, Indiewire	17/24	$0.94
Guy Lodge, HitFix	16/24	$0.93
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times	16/24	$0.89
Joal Ryan, E! Online	15/24	$0.87
Pete Hammond, Deadline.com	15/24	$0.86
Kevin Polowy, NextMovie	16/24	$0.84
Steve Pond, TheWrap	15/24	$0.83
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture	16/24	$0.82
Wesley Morris, Grantland	11/24	$0.69

The Best Pundit award goes to Anthony Breznican of Entertainment Weekly, who got 21/24 picks correct, including non-consensus ones such as “Lincoln” for Production Design and “Skyfall” for Sound Editing (where it earned a tie). Scott Feinberg of the Hollywood Reporter and Anne Thompson of Indiewire also scored high marks, while Wesley Morris of Grantland had a rough showing. Simply going with the favorites — as deemed by the oddsmakers — would have yielded a slightly positive return.

Finally, here are the cumulative rankings of the pundits we track that made predictions for all categories both last year and this year, with Melena Ryzik of the Carpetbagger blog (New York Times) earning the top spot.

Pundit	Last Year	This Year	Cumulative
Melena Ryzik, New York Times	$1.36	$1.31	$1.34
Anne Thompson, Indiewire	$1.07	$1.45	$1.26
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit	$1.35	$1.12	$1.24
Kris Tapley, HitFix	$1.39	$1.08	$1.24
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter	$0.96	$1.48	$1.22
Peter Knegt, Indiewire	$1.37	$0.94	$1.16
Vegas Favorites	$1.10	$1.03	$1.07
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times	$1.16	$0.96	$1.06
Pete Hammond, Deadline.com	$1.22	$0.86	$1.04
Steve Pond, TheWrap	$1.14	$0.83	$0.99
Guy Lodge, HitFix	$1.01	$0.93	$0.97
Rotten Tomatoes	$0.83	$1.01	$0.92
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture	$1.01	$0.82	$0.92
Kevin Polowy, NextMovie	$0.95	$0.84	$0.90
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times	$0.73	$0.89	$0.81

 

Update: We originally had Kris Tapley scored at 17/24, which was incorrect. This has been fixed.

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