5 Boldest Election Day Predictions (so far)

September 28, 2012  |  Politics
As referenced in our last post, November 6 may have a big impact on our Political Pundit scores, as we have cataloged close to 70 calls so far that are coming due on election day.

As our readers know, the more non-consensus the call, the more credit we award the pundit for getting it right. In that spirit, here are the five boldest election day predictions we are currently tracking:

Karl RoveTodd Akin will lose by the widest margin of any Republican candidate in recent history if he stays in race (August 2012; Politico)
Bill O'ReillyRomney will win all the states that John McCain won (July 2012; Fox News)
Michael TomaskyObama will win election, Democrats will hold Senate, AND Republicans will hold House (December 2011; Daily Beast)
Paul BegalaA third-party candidate will get more than 7% of the popular vote for president (December 2011; Daily Beast)
Mort ZuckermanObama's Hispanic support will fall by 30+ points (September 2011; McLaughlin Group)

Note that there were several bolder calls than these that we were unable to track because they were too theoretical or were hedged — for instance, Dick Morris saying that Obama “might” pull out of the election (September 2011) and that Romney would win in a landslide “if the election were held today” (August 2012).

So let’s open it up for discussion: Which of these five predictions is most likely to come true?

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4 Comments


  1. At some point will it be possible to see the boldness score for individual predictions?

  2. Intrade has Obama/Democrat Senate/Republican House at 60% at the moment. Although it was 20% at around the time of the prediction, it’s definitely the most likely to come true at this point.

  3. Hard to argue with Bill O’Reilly’s and Michael Tomasky’s predictions. O’Reilly’s makes sense for the most part since Romney seems to have locked in on McCain’s base. Tomasky’s isn’t that outlandish either considering the polls in the presidential race has Obama winning and at a legislative level, it appears while some chairs will change hands, it won’t like be a large shift.

  4. According to Intrade, Obama/Democrat Senate/Republican House is the most likely outcome right now:

    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=754570

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