As our readers know, the more non-consensus the call, the more credit we award the pundit for getting it right. In that spirit, here are the five boldest election day predictions we are currently tracking:
|Karl Rove||Todd Akin will lose by the widest margin of any Republican candidate in recent history if he stays in race (August 2012; Politico)|
|Bill O'Reilly||Romney will win all the states that John McCain won (July 2012; Fox News)|
|Michael Tomasky||Obama will win election, Democrats will hold Senate, AND Republicans will hold House (December 2011; Daily Beast)|
|Paul Begala||A third-party candidate will get more than 7% of the popular vote for president (December 2011; Daily Beast)|
|Mort Zuckerman||Obama's Hispanic support will fall by 30+ points (September 2011; McLaughlin Group)|
Note that there were several bolder calls than these that we were unable to track because they were too theoretical or were hedged — for instance, Dick Morris saying that Obama “might” pull out of the election (September 2011) and that Romney would win in a landslide “if the election were held today” (August 2012).
So let’s open it up for discussion: Which of these five predictions is most likely to come true?