It’s that time of year — to dig through the archives to see how all those high-conviction preseason NFL predictions turned out. We tracked 81 pundits this season: 64 from ESPN (yes, 64), 11 from NFL.com, and 6 from SI, including their division, conference, Super Bowl, and player award picks.
Before we get to the individual predictions, let’s look at the collective predictions for each category:
AFCE AFCN AFCS AFCW NFCE NFCN NFCS NFCW AFC NFC SB
NE (81) CIN (35) IND (80)) DEN (77) PHI (69) GB (67) NO (74) SEA (59) DEN (35) SF (21) DEN (21)
PIT (28) HOU (1) SD (3) WAS (7) CHI (12) CAR (4) SF (21) NE (31) NO (19) NO (16)
BAL (18) KC (1) NYG (4) DET (2) TB (2) ARI (1) IND (14) SEA (19) SF (13)
DAL (1) ATL (1) SD (1) GB (17) SEA (11)
PHI (4) NE (9)
CHI (1) GB (8)
The Eagles and Saints were two standout misses, with 85% of the pundits picking Philly to win the NFC East (Vegas odds were 52%) and 91% picking the Saints (Vegas odds were 67%). Only Mike Silver of NFL.com picked the Cowboys to win the East, while four pundits picked the Panthers in the South.
Now let’s look at the individual Super Bowl picks. For all the picks — including division and player awards — click here.
We’ll split the pundits into four groups. First, here are the 11 ones that correctly pegged both the Patriots and Seahawks in the big game.
Pundit AFC NFC Super Bowl
Bill Simmons, ESPN NE SEA SEA
Brian Billick, NFL.com NE SEA NE
Coley Harvey, ESPN NE SEA NE
Emily Kaplan, SI NE SEA NE
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com NE SEA NE
Field Yates, ESPN NE SEA SEA
Gred Bedard, SI NE SEA SEA
Jim Trotter, ESPN NE SEA NE
Mel Kiper, ESPN NE SEA NE
Mike Sando, ESPN NE SEA SEA
Mike Triplett, ESPN NE SEA SEA
Now, here is the group that had either the Patriots or Seahawks winning it all.
Pundit AFC NFC Super Bowl
Adam Caplan, ESPN NE NO NE
Gary Horton, ESPN DEN SEA SEA
John Clayton, ESPN DEN SEA SEA
Louis Riddick, ESPN DEN SEA SEA
Mike Reiss, ESPN NE PHI NE
Steve Muench, ESPN NE CHI NE
Tania Ganguli, ESPN IND SEA SEA
Terry Blount, ESPN IND SEA SEA
Third, the pundits who had either the Pats or Seahawks winning their respective conference.
Pundit AFC NFC Super Bowl
Andy Benoit, SI NE GB GB
Charley Casserly, NFL.com DEN SEA DEN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN NE NO NO
Chris Wesseling, NFL.com NE NO NO
Dan Graziano, ESPN NE NO NO
Dave Dameshak, NFL.com NE GB GB
David Newton, ESPN SD NO NO
Eric D. Williams, ESPN NE SF SF
Gil Brandt, NFL.com NE NO NO
Greg Garber, ESPN NE SF SF
Greg Rosenthal, NFL.com NE GB GB
John Keim, ESPN NE NO NO
KC Joyner, ESPN NE NO NO
Matt Williamson, ESPN NE NO NO
Mike Wells, ESPN DEN SEA DEN
Michael C. Wright, ESPN NE SF SF
Paul Kuharsky, ESPN NE PHI PHI
Rich Cimini, ESPN NE SF SF
Robert Flores, ESPN NE NO NO
Robert Klemko, SI NE SF SF
Todd Archer, ESPN NE GB GB
Finally, the pundits that whiffed on both picks.
Pundit AFC NFC Super Bowl
Aaron Schatz, ESPN DEN GB DEN
Adam Schein, NFL.com DEN GB GB
Adam Teicher, ESPN DEN NO NO
Ashley Fox, ESPN DEN SF SF
Bill Barnwell, ESPN DEN GB GB
Bill Williamson, ESPN DEN SF DEN
Bucky Brooks, NFL.com DEN NO NO
Calvin Watkins, ESPN DEN GB DEN
Don Banks, SI DEN NO NO
Herm Edwards, ESPN DEN GB DEN
James Walker, ESPN DEN NO DEN
Jeff Legwold, ESPN DEN SF DEN
Jeffri Chadiha, ESPN DEN SF SF
Jenny Vrentas, SI DEN GB DEN
Josh Weinfuss, ESPN DEN GB DEN
Judy Battista, NFL.com DEN GB DEN
Kevin Seifert, ESPN DEN SF SF
Kevin Weidl, ESPN DEN NO NO
Mike DiRocco, ESPN DEN SF DEN
Mike Rodak, ESPN DEN SF DEN
Neil Paine, ESPN DEN SF DEN
Nick Wagoner, ESPN DEN SF SF
Pat MacManamon, ESPN DEN GB GB
Pat Yasinskas, ESPN DEN SF DEN
Paul Gutierrez, ESPN DEN SF SF
Peter King, SI IND GB GB
Rob Demovsky, ESPN DEN GB DEN
Sarah Spain, ESPN IND SF SF
Scott Brown, ESPN DEN GB DEN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN IND PHI PHI
Stephania Bell, ESPN DEN GB DEN
Trey Wingo, ESPN DEN NO DEN
Vaughn McClure, ESPN DEN SF SF
Wendi Nix, ESPN DEN SF DEN
As the Wall Street analysts chime in with their 2015 S&P 500 predictions, let’s revisit how the six bulge bracket firms did with their prognostications over the past four years.
Annual S&P 500 Forecasts
Bank 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average (Banks) 1378 1338 1543 1964 2175
UBS 1350 1325 1425 1950 2250
Barclays 1420 1330 1525 1900 2100
Credit Suisse 1250 1340 1550 1960 2200
Goldman Sachs 1450 1250 1575 1900 2100
JP Morgan 1400 1430 1580 2075 2200
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 1400 1350 1600 2000 2200
Actual 1258 1426 2083 2083* 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average Projected Rise 9.9% 6.4% 8.2% 6.3%
Actual Rise 0.3% 13.4% 29.6% 12.7%*
The mean S&P estimate has been considerably off-target each year: by +960 basis points in 2011, -700 basis points in 2012, a whopping -2140 basis points in 2013, and as of this morning, -640 basis points this year.
What’s most interesting is that the clustering effect has been very pronounced, with five of the six analyst predictions each year falling within a 100 point range (1350-1450 in 2011, 1250-1350 in 2012, 1500-1600 in 2013, and 1900-2000 in 2014) – ranges which failed to capture the actual result in every instance.
So what is behind the errant clustering? The biases of anchoring and recency are likely culprits, with analysts anchoring to a baseline and extrapolating from recent trends. We believe career risk is also at play: as investor Joel Greenblatt put it, “It’s much safer to be wrong in a crowd than to risk being the only one to misread a situation that everyone else had pegged correctly.”
But how do we reconcile the incentive for pundits to not stray from the consensus – and thus minimize career risk – with the bombastic pundits that we all love to rail on? Why aren’t they concerned about career risk? Well, here’s the catch:
In punditry, if you are going to be wrong, it pays to be spectacularly wrong.
We explain using the following matrix:
Reaction to outcomes by prediction type
Prediction Type Outcome: Correct Outcome: Incorrect
Consensus Expected Forgivable
Contrarian Subdued Praise Pink Slip
Wildly Contrarian Hero Celebrity
The first prediction type (“Consensus”) is greeted with minimal credit when correct and minimal blame when incorrect. As we discussed with the S&P 500 forecasters, pundits focused on career preservation adhere to this ‘safety in numbers’ approach. The last prediction type (“Wildly Contrarian”) is typically made by pundits who crave media attention. Regardless of outcome, they are able to parlay their provocative predictions and media prowess into cash by writing books, hitting the speaking circuit, and developing a cult-like following. This is how One-Hit Wonders and Broken Clocks are born.
That leaves the middle prediction type, which we refer to as the ‘Bermuda Triangle’ of punditry. These pundits are contrarian enough to create career risk for themselves but not contrarian enough to garner mainstream attention. Correct predictions are greeted with modest praise — say, a pat on the back from a few colleagues — while incorrect predictions draw intense scrutiny. Low reward, high risk.
Our hunch is that the best pundits are stuck in this Bermuda Triangle, quietly amassing first-rate track records but lacking a platform to reach a wider audience. Instead, our professional ranks and airwaves are cluttered with pundits who make Consensus and Wildly Contrarian predictions. Nate Silver is a rare exception, having made the leap from quant to superstar. We would argue that Silver was aided by the criticism leveled at him by conservatives, which created a false perception that his election predictions were wildly contrarian when they were in fact only moderately so.
PunditTracker aims to disrupt the prediction industry by offering a common platform for everyone – including yourself — to make predictions. By leveling the playing field and holding everyone equally accountable, we strive to introduce a much-needed dose of meritocracy into the system.
This is an updated post from previous years. If you think you can best these pundits, head over to PunditTracker to make your own predictions for 2015. We will be adding many predictions in the weeks ahead and will grade you afterwards!
We started tracking Byron Wien’s annual predictions in 2010, grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective) Here is how his predictions for 2014 are looking with a few days left in the year:
S&P 500 total return will approach 20% for full year after 10%+ correction during year FALSE (no correction)
US real GDP growth will exceed 3% AND unemployment rate ends year below 6.3% TBD on GDP growth (unlikely)
Dollar will appreciate, trading below $1.25 against the euro and buying 120 yen during year TRUE
Nikkei 225 will rise to 18000+ early in year but market suffers 20%+ correction in second half FALSE (no correction)
Chinese GDP growth between 5.8%-6.2% AND another disappointing year for mainland equities FALSE (equities did great)
Mexico and South Korean market do well; other Emerging Markets do not FALSE (Mexico)
WTI crude price exceeds $110 during the year FALSE
Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 AND soybeans to $16.00. FALSE
10-year US treasury yield rises to 4% AND short-term rates stay near zero FALSE
Democrats retain Senate and gain seats in House FALSE
Tally: 1/9, with one yet to be determined
Here is how Wien’s track record looks over the past five years — warning: it’s not pretty. ROI is the average return had you bet $1 on each of his predictions based on the corresponding odds at the time of the prediction; it effectively awards more credit for out-of-consensus predictions that come true:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cumulative
Hit Rate 0/9 (0%) 4/8 (50%) 3/8 (38%) 1/10 (10%) 1/9 (11%) 9/44 (20%)
Yield $0.00 $1.42 $0.85 $0.15 $0.19 $0.49
For more details on all of Wien’s predictions, visit PunditTracker’s Finance Page, where you can also make your own predictions for 2015 (we will grade you as well). We will update Wien’s page with his 2015 predictions once they are released.
We have been tracking the annual predictions of Bob Doll (formerly of Blackrock, now at Nuveen) since 2010. Here is how his predictions for 2014 are looking with a few days left in the year:
US Real GDP will grow 2.8%-3.2% AND Housing Starts will surpass 1 million TBD on GDP growth (unlikely)
10-year Treasury yield ends year higher than 3% (prediction = moves toward 3.5%) FALSE
US equities record a good year (graded as 5%+) despite enduring a 10% correction FALSE (no correction)
Cyclical stocks will outperform defensive stocks FALSE
Dividends, stock buybacks, capex, AND M&A will all increase at a double-digit rate TBD on capex
US dollar will appreciate TRUE
Gold price will fall TRUE
Municipal bonds outperform taxable bonds TRUE
Active managers outperform index funds FALSE (way off)
Republicans increase lead in House AND lose Senate FALSE Senate)
Tally: 3/8, with two yet to be determined
Here is how Doll’s track record looks over the past five years. ROI is the average return had you bet $1 on each of his predictions based on the corresponding odds at the time of the prediction; it effectively awards more credit for out-of-consensus predictions that come true:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cumulative
Hit Rate 5/9 (56%) 3/7 (43%) 4/9 (44%) 5/9 (56%) 3/8 (38%) 20/42 (48%)
ROI $0.86 $0.75 $0.84 $0.95 $0.75 $0.84
For more details on all of Doll’s predictions, visit PunditTracker’s Finance Page, where you can also make your own predictions for 2015 (we will grade you as well). We will update Doll’s page with his 2015 predictions once they are released.
With ten weeks in the fold, let’s check in and see how the NFL “experts” are doing with their weekly picks this year. We are tracking 24 pundits from CBS Sports, ESPN, and Yahoo.
Here are the rankings sorted by Hit Rate, which is the percentage of games picked correctly.
Through Week 10
Pundit Hit Rate
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS 73%
Cris Carter, ESPN 71%
Vegas Favorites 70%
KC Joyner, ESPN 69%
Dave Richard, CBS 68%
Eric Allen, ESPN 68%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN 67%
Pete Prisco, ESPN 67%
Tom Jackson, ESPN 67%
Prediction Machine, CBS 66%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN 65%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN 64%
Adam Schefter, ESPN 64%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN 64%
John Breech, CBS 63%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo 63%
Josh Katzowitz, ESPN 62%
Merril Hoge, ESPN 62%
Eric Adelson, Yahoo 61%
Mike Ditka, ESPN 61%
Jason La Canfora, CBS 61%
Mike Golic, ESPN 60%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN 58%
Will Brinson, CBS 58%
Ryan Wilson, CBS 56%
Overall, the pundits have had a tough season so far, with only two of them outperforming the batting average had you simply picked all the favorites (according to Vegas oddsmakers): Jamie Eisenberg and Cris Carter. On average, they got 64% of their picks correct compared to 70% for Vegas. The pundits look somewhat better from an “odds-adjusted” standpoint: if you placed bets on all of their picks at moneyline odds, you would have averaged a +1% return.
As far as individual games, the pundits completed whiffed (not one got it right) on many: Bills/Bears in Week 1, Saints/Browns and Rams/Bucs in Week 2, Bucs/Steelers in Week 4, Bills/Lions in Week 5, Redskins/Cowboys in Week 8, Rams/49ers in Week 9, and Steelers/Jets in Week 10. Best game calls include: Keyshawn Johnson as the only pundit to pick the Cowboys over the Seahawks in Week 6 (24% odds), Mike Ditka as the only one to pick both the Bears to beat the 49ers in Week 2 (25% odds) and the Browns to defeat the Bengals in Week 10 (29% odds), and Jason La Canfora picking the Rams over the Seahawks in Week 7 (27% odds).
For more details on all the pundits’ picks and to make your own picks for Week 11 Games, head over to the PunditTracker site (deadline is Saturday).
Finally, here are the Hit Rates by pundit for each of the past three years. The data says it all: on a cumulative basis, not one of the experts who has made picks for each of the past three years has outperformed Vegas.
Hit Rate By Year (And Cumulative)
Pundit 2012 2013 2014 YTD Cumulative
Average 64% 64% 64% 64%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS 66% 73% 69%
Vegas Favorites 64% 70% 70% 68%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN 70% 65% 67% 67%
KC Joyner, ESPN 66% 69% 67%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN 66% 68% 65% 67%
Prediction Machine, CBS 64% 69% 66% 66%
Cris Carter, ESPN 64% 71% 66%
Dave Richard, CBS 62% 67% 68% 65%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN 69% 65% 58% 65%
Pete Prisco, CBS 64% 63% 67% 64%
Tom Jackson, ESPN 63% 64% 67% 64%
John Breech, CBS 65% 63% 64%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN 64% 64% 64% 64%
Merril Hoge, ESPN 67% 62% 62% 64%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS 66% 62% 62% 64%
Adam Schefter, ESPN 63% 64% 64% 64%
Mike Ditka, ESPN 64% 64% 61% 63%
Eric Allen, CBS 61% 62% 68% 63%
Will Brinson, CBS 65% 62% 58% 62%
Mike Golic, ESPN 64% 62% 60% 62%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo 62% 63% 62%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN 60% 63% 64% 62%
Ryan Wilson, CBS 61% 65% 56% 62%
Eric Adelson, Yahoo 61% 61%
Jason La Canfora, ESPN 62% 58% 61% 60%
It’s deja vu for the Major League Baseball pundits: for the second consecutive year, not one of the 64 pundits we tracked pegged the World Series correctly before the season began.
As we recapped last season, none of the pundits picked either the Red Sox or the Cardinals to make the Series, continuing a multi-year string of futility (following years of complaints that baseball had become too predictable because of payroll disparity). Well, the group did a smidge better (less worse?) this year, as two pundits actually picked the Royals to win the AL Pennant: Jon Heyman of CBS and Steven Wulf of ESPN. The experts struck out entirely on the Giants, which is surprising as Vegas gave San Francisco 12% odds to win the NL (Royals were given a 6% chance to win the AL).
Here were the preseason picks in aggregate (we tracked pundits from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox)
AL Pennant NL Pennant World Series
TB: 25 WAS: 25 LAD: 17
DET: 22 LAD: 23 WAS: 17
BOS: 5 STL: 16 STL: 12
OAK: 4 TB: 9
KC: 2 DET: 6
NYY: 2 BOS: 2
TEX: 2 CLE: 1
BAL: 1 CLE: 1
And here were the division picks.
AL(E) AL(C) AL(W) NL(E) NL(C) NL(W)
TB: 39 DET: 50 OAK: 28 WAS: 60 STL: 60 LAD: 56
BOS: 19 KC: 11 TEX: 24 ATL: 4 PIT: 3 SF: 5
BAL: 3 CLE: 3 LAA: 12 MIA: 0 CIN: 1 ARI: 2
NYY: 3 CHW: 0 HOU: 0 NYY: 0 CHC: 0 SD: 1
TOR: 0 MIN: 0 SEA: 0 PHI: 0 MIL: 0 COL: 0
14 pundits picked the Royals for a AL Wild Card spot, while 33 picked the Giants for the NL Wild Card.
With five weeks in the fold, let’s check in and see how the NFL “experts” are doing with their weekly picks this year. We are tracking 23 pundits from CBS Sports, ESPN, and Yahoo.
Here are the rankings sorted by Hit Rate, which is the percentage of games picked correctly. We have also included a column for “Profit.” This would be your net profit had you bet $1 on each of the picks at moneyline odds, which gives pundits more credit for picking upsets.
Through Week 5
Pundit Hit Rate Profit
Average 61% $(2.13)
Pete Prisco, CBS 70% $11.57
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS 68% $7.45
Dave Richard, CBS 67% $6.84
Tom Jackson, ESPN 67% $7.22
Cris Carter, ESPN 66% $3.13
KC Joyner, ESPN 66% $6.14
Vegas Favorites 66% $0.52
Eric Allen, ESPN 64% $1.55
Prediction Machine, CBS 63% $(1.52)
Ron Jaworski, ESPN 63% $(1.28)
Seth Wickersham, ESPN 63% $1.98
Jason La Canfora, CBS 62% $0.20
Adam Schefter, ESPN 61% $(2.51)
John Breech, CBS 59% $(4.95)
Mark Schlereth, ESPN 59% $(6.47)
Mike Golic, ESPN 59% $(5.65)
Will Brinson, CBS 59% $(2.80)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo 58% $(8.57)
Chris Mortensen, ESPN 57% $(8.46)
Josh Katzowitz, CBS 57% $(10.03)
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN 57% $(7.34)
Merril Hoge, ESPN 57% $(8.26)
Mike Ditka, ESPN 57% $(1.84)
Eric Adelson, Yahoo 55% $(9.82)
Ryan Wilson, CBS 50% $(17.00)
Overall, the pundits have had a mediocre season so far, with only six of them outperforming the hit rate had you simply picked all the favorites (according to Vegas oddsmakers). From a profit standpoint, they have been money-losing, with $1 bets yielding $0.97 on average. On an individual basis, Pete Prisco has had a stellar year, hitting on 70% of his picks, while his CBS colleague Ryan Wilson is off to a woeful start.
As far as individual games, the pundits completed whiffed (i.e. 0/23) on several: Bills/Bears in Week 1, Saints/Browns and Rams/Bucs in Week 2, Bucs/Steelers in Week 3, and Bills/Lions in Week 4. Best game calls include: Mike Ditka as the only pundit to pick the Bears to beat the 49ers in Week 2 (25% odds), Pete Prisco as the only one to pick the Chargers over the Seahawks in Week 2 (32% odds), and Adam Schefter as the only one to pick the Vikings over the Falcons in Week 4 (34% odds).
For more details on all the pundits’ picks and to make your own picks for Week 6 Games, head over to the PunditTracker site.
Finally, here are the Hit Rates by pundit for each of the past three years. The data says it all: on a cumulative basis since 2011, not one of these experts has outperformed the batting average of simply picking the favorites as deemed by Vegas.
Hit Rate By Year (And Cumulative)
Hit Rate 2012 2013 2014 YTD Cumulative
Average 64% 64% 61% 62.9%
Vegas Favorites 64% 70% 66% 66.9%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS 66% 68% 66.9%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN 70% 65% 63% 66.7%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN 66% 68% 63% 66.6%
KC Joyner, ESPN 66% 66% 66.0%
Prediction Machine, CBS 64% 69% 63% 65.9%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN 69% 65% 57% 65.6%
Dave Richard, CBS 62% 67% 67% 64.7%
Cris Carter, ESPN 64% 66% 64.6%
Pete Prisco, CBS 64% 63% 70% 64.3%
Tom Jackson, ESPN 63% 64% 67% 63.9%
John Breech, CBS 65% 59% 63.6%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN 64% 64% 59% 63.4%
Merril Hoge, ESPN 67% 62% 57% 63.4%
Adam Schefter, ESPN 63% 64% 61% 63.1%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS 66% 62% 57% 63.1%
Will Brinson, CBS 65% 62% 59% 63.1%
Mike Ditka, ESPN 64% 64% 57% 62.9%
Mike Golic, ESPN 64% 62% 59% 62.6%
Eric Allen, ESPN 61% 62% 64% 61.9%
Ryan Wilson, CBS 61% 65% 50% 61.4%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo 62% 58% 61.2%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN 60% 63% 57% 60.8%
Jason La Canfora, CBS 62% 58% 62% 60.1%
Eric Adelson, Yahoo 55% 55.3%
Last year we tracked the preseason predictions of 35 ESPN ‘experts’, and only one correctly pegged the Heat-Spurs Finals matchup: John Hollinger.
With pundits typically guilty of extrapolating from recent performance, we expected many (if not most) to have picked a rematch this year. While 23 of the 28 of the pundits we tracked this year picked the Heat to win the East, only three also had the Spurs in the West: Kevin Arnovitz, Mike Mazzeo, and Nick Friedell.
Here is a breakdown of the collective picks of the group. The pundits were swayed by the flashy offseason moves made the Clippers, pegging them as the favorite in the West:
23: Heat 14: Clippers
03: Pacers 06: Thunder
01: Nets 05: Spurs
01: Bulls 02: Warriors
Interestingly, while Vegas had the Spurs as the favorite to win the Southwest division (48% odds), the pundits again were swayed by flash, with the majority picking the Rockets:
Atlantic Central Southeast Northwest Southwest Pacific
28: Nets 21: Bulls 28: Heat 28: Thunder 14: Rockets 28: Clippers
07: Pacers 12: Spurs 02: Grizzlies
Here are the individual picks of each of the 28 pundits. Arnovitz, Mazzeo, and Friedell all had the Heat beating the Spurs. Only two pundits picks the Spurs to win it all: J.A. Adande (Spurs over Pacers) and Kevin Pelton (Spurs over Bulls).
ATL CTR SE NW SW PAC EAST WEST CHAMP
Kevin Arnovitz BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC MIA SA MIA
Mike Mazzeo BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA SA MIA
Nick Friedell BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC MIA SA MIA
Amin Elhassan BKN IND MIA OKC SA LAC MIA LAC MIA
Bradford Doolittle BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA HOU MIA
Brian Windhorst BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA OKC MIA
Chad Ford BKN IND MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
Chris Broussard BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
Chris Forsberg BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA OKC MIA
Dave McMenamin BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
David Thorpe BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA GS MIA
Ethan Strauss BKN CHI MIA OKC MEM LAC MIA LAC MIA
Henry Abbott BKN IND MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
Ian Begley BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
Israel Gutierrez BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC MIA OKC MIA
J.A. Adande BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC IND SA SA
Justin Verrier BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC MIA OKC MIA
Kevin Pelton BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC CHI SA SA
Larry Coon BKN IND MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
Michael Wallace BKN IND MIA OKC SA LAC MIA LAC MIA
Ohm Youngmisuk BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA LAC MIA
Ramona Shelburne BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC MIA GS MIA
Tim MacMahon BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC MIA OKC MIA
Tom Haberstroh BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC MIA LAC MIA
Adry Torres BKN IND MIA OKC MEM LAC BKN LAC BKN
Mike Huang BKN CHI MIA OKC SA LAC CHI OKC CHI
Marc Stein BKN CHI MIA OKC HOU LAC IND LAC IND
Maurice Brooks BKN IND MIA OKC SA LAC IND LAC IND
With the Finals starting on Thursday, you still have a few days left to make your own picks for both Game 1 and the Series. We also have live picks open for the NBA coaching carousel (Fisher to the Knicks?) as well as trade rumors (Love getting dealt?). Head over to PunditTracker.com now to make your picks and see if you can crack our User Leaderboard.
With the NFL Draft pundits rolling out their final mock drafts this week, which one should you pay the most attention to?
We have graded the Round 1 mock drafts of Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), and Mike Mayock (NFL.com) for each of the past six years (2008-2013). Here are the results.
Let’s start with our simple variability measure, which is based on the difference between when each player was projected to be picked and when he was actually picked. A lower variability score is better:
Variability 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 7.3 9.6 9.9 9.3 7.9 10.7 9.1
Kiper 10.1 8.8 10.4 7.7 8.5 11.7 9.6
McShay 10.7 8.7 8.8 6.8 7.0 21.5 10.6
Mike Mayock has posted the best average. Todd McShay had a great run from 2009-12 but stumbled badly last year (as did all of the pundits, but McShay did even worse).
Here are all the individual major Hits and Misses from the pundits for each of the years:
The variability metric can be significantly impacted by “outliers” such as McShay picking Ryan Nassib to go #7 last year (he went #110), so we have calculated a few alternative metrics, including Median Error and Hit Rate.
Median Error (lower = better)
Median Error 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 2.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.2
Kiper 3.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.4
McShay 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 5.0 3.8
Hit Rate (higher = better): pure percentage of how many picks were correct
Hit Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Mayock 35% 28% 22% 28% 19% 28% 27%
Kiper 29% 25% 31% 28% 22% 25% 27%
McShay 16% 25% 34% 25% 16% 22% 23%
We will be back next week with our grades for this year’s mock drafts.
For those new to PunditTracker, we aim to level the prediction playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. Head over to our NFL Draft section to make some of your own predictions for the 2014 Draft using the ‘Vote Now’ buttons.