Who Predicted Patriots-Seahawks Before The Season?

January 28, 2015  |  Sports

It’s that time of year — to dig through the archives to see how all those high-conviction preseason NFL predictions turned out. We tracked 81 pundits this season: 64 from ESPN (yes, 64), 11 from NFL.com, and 6 from SI, including their division, conference, Super Bowl, and player award picks.

Before we get to the individual predictions, let’s look at the collective predictions for each category:

AFCEAFCNAFCSAFCWNFCENFCNNFCSNFCWAFCNFCSB
NE (81)CIN (35)IND (80))DEN (77)PHI (69)GB (67)NO (74)SEA (59)DEN (35)SF (21)DEN (21)
PIT (28)HOU (1)SD (3)WAS (7)CHI (12)CAR (4)SF (21)NE (31)NO (19)NO (16)
BAL (18)KC (1)NYG (4)DET (2)TB (2)ARI (1)IND (14)SEA (19)SF (13)
DAL (1)ATL (1)SD (1)GB (17)SEA (11)
PHI (4)NE (9)
CHI (1)GB (8)
PHI (3)

The Eagles and Saints were two standout misses, with 85% of the pundits picking Philly to win the NFC East (Vegas odds were 52%) and 91% picking the Saints (Vegas odds were 67%). Only Mike Silver of NFL.com picked the Cowboys to win the East, while four pundits picked the Panthers in the South.

Now let’s look at the individual Super Bowl picks. For all the picks — including division and player awards — click here.

We’ll split the pundits into four groups. First, here are the 11 ones that correctly pegged both the Patriots and Seahawks in the big game.

PunditAFCNFCSuper Bowl
Bill Simmons, ESPNNESEASEA
Brian Billick, NFL.comNESEANE
Coley Harvey, ESPNNESEANE
Emily Kaplan, SINESEANE
Elliot Harrison, NFL.comNESEANE
Field Yates, ESPNNESEASEA
Gred Bedard, SINESEASEA
Jim Trotter, ESPNNESEANE
Mel Kiper, ESPNNESEANE
Mike Sando, ESPNNESEASEA
Mike Triplett, ESPNNESEASEA

Now, here is the group that had either the Patriots or Seahawks winning it all.

PunditAFCNFCSuper Bowl
Adam Caplan, ESPNNENONE
Gary Horton, ESPNDENSEASEA
John Clayton, ESPNDENSEASEA
Louis Riddick, ESPNDENSEASEA
Mike Reiss, ESPNNEPHINE
Steve Muench, ESPNNECHINE
Tania Ganguli, ESPNINDSEASEA
Terry Blount, ESPNINDSEASEA

Third, the pundits who had either the Pats or Seahawks winning their respective conference.

PunditAFCNFCSuper Bowl
Andy Benoit, SINEGBGB
Charley Casserly, NFL.comDENSEADEN
Chris Mortensen, ESPNNENONO
Chris Wesseling, NFL.comNENONO
Dan Graziano, ESPNNENONO
Dave Dameshak, NFL.comNEGBGB
David Newton, ESPNSDNONO
Eric D. Williams, ESPNNESFSF
Gil Brandt, NFL.comNENONO
Greg Garber, ESPNNESFSF
Greg Rosenthal, NFL.comNEGBGB
John Keim, ESPNNENONO
KC Joyner, ESPNNENONO
Matt Williamson, ESPNNENONO
Mike Wells, ESPNDENSEADEN
Michael C. Wright, ESPNNESFSF
Paul Kuharsky, ESPNNEPHIPHI
Rich Cimini, ESPNNESFSF
Robert Flores, ESPNNENONO
Robert Klemko, SINESFSF
Todd Archer, ESPNNEGBGB

Finally, the pundits that whiffed on both picks.

PunditAFCNFCSuper Bowl
Aaron Schatz, ESPNDENGBDEN
Adam Schein, NFL.comDENGBGB
Adam Teicher, ESPNDENNONO
Ashley Fox, ESPNDENSFSF
Bill Barnwell, ESPNDENGBGB
Bill Williamson, ESPNDENSFDEN
Bucky Brooks, NFL.comDENNONO
Calvin Watkins, ESPNDENGBDEN
Don Banks, SIDENNONO
Herm Edwards, ESPNDENGBDEN
James Walker, ESPNDENNODEN
Jeff Legwold, ESPNDENSFDEN
Jeffri Chadiha, ESPNDENSFSF
Jenny Vrentas, SIDENGBDEN
Josh Weinfuss, ESPNDENGBDEN
Judy Battista, NFL.comDENGBDEN
Kevin Seifert, ESPNDENSFSF
Kevin Weidl, ESPNDENNONO
Mike DiRocco, ESPNDENSFDEN
Mike Rodak, ESPNDENSFDEN
Neil Paine, ESPNDENSFDEN
Nick Wagoner, ESPNDENSFSF
Pat MacManamon, ESPNDENGBGB
Pat Yasinskas, ESPNDENSFDEN
Paul Gutierrez, ESPNDENSFSF
Peter King, SIINDGBGB
Rob Demovsky, ESPNDENGBDEN
Sarah Spain, ESPNINDSFSF
Scott Brown, ESPNDENGBDEN
Seth Wickersham, ESPNINDPHIPHI
Stephania Bell, ESPNDENGBDEN
Trey Wingo, ESPNDENNODEN
Vaughn McClure, ESPNDENSFSF
Wendi Nix, ESPNDENSFDEN

Once again, to see the full list of picks, click here, or head to PunditTracker for more details and/or to make your own predictions for Super Bowl XLIX.

 

Why You Should Ignore 2015 Market Forecasts

December 31, 2014  |  Finance

As the Wall Street analysts chime in with their 2015 S&P 500 predictions, let’s revisit how the six bulge bracket firms did with their prognostications over the past four years.

Annual S&P 500 Forecasts

Bank20112012201320142015
Average (Banks)13781338154319642175
UBS13501325142519502250
Barclays14201330152519002100
Credit Suisse12501340155019602200
Goldman Sachs14501250157519002100
JP Morgan14001430158020752200
Bank of America Merrill Lynch14001350160020002200
Actual1258142620832083*

2011201220132014
Average Projected Rise9.9%6.4%8.2%6.3%
Actual Rise0.3%13.4%29.6%12.7%*

The mean S&P estimate has been considerably off-target each year: by +960 basis points in 2011, -700 basis points in 2012, a whopping -2140 basis points in 2013, and as of this morning, -640 basis points this year.

What’s most interesting is that the clustering effect has been very pronounced, with five of the six analyst predictions each year falling within a 100 point range (1350-1450 in 2011, 1250-1350 in 2012, 1500-1600 in 2013, and 1900-2000 in 2014) – ranges which failed to capture the actual result in every instance. 

So what is behind the errant clustering? The biases of anchoring and recency are likely culprits, with analysts anchoring to a baseline and extrapolating from recent trends. We believe career risk is also at play: as investor Joel Greenblatt put it, “It’s much safer to be wrong in a crowd than to risk being the only one to misread a situation that everyone else had pegged correctly.”

But how do we reconcile the incentive for pundits to not stray from the consensus – and thus minimize career risk – with the bombastic pundits that we all love to rail on? Why aren’t they concerned about career risk? Well, here’s the catch:

In punditry, if you are going to be wrong, it pays to be spectacularly wrong.

We explain using the following matrix:

Reaction to outcomes by prediction type

Prediction TypeOutcome: CorrectOutcome: Incorrect
ConsensusExpectedForgivable
ContrarianSubdued PraisePink Slip
Wildly ContrarianHeroCelebrity

The first prediction type (“Consensus”) is greeted with minimal credit when correct and minimal blame when incorrect. As we discussed with the S&P 500 forecasters, pundits focused on career preservation adhere to this ‘safety in numbers’ approach. The last prediction type (“Wildly Contrarian”) is typically made by pundits who crave media attention. Regardless of outcome, they are able to parlay their provocative predictions and media prowess into cash by writing books, hitting the speaking circuit, and developing a cult-like following. This is how One-Hit Wonders and Broken Clocks are born.

That leaves the middle prediction type, which we refer to as the ‘Bermuda Triangle’ of punditry. These pundits are contrarian enough to create career risk for themselves but not contrarian enough to garner mainstream attention. Correct predictions are greeted with modest praise — say, a pat on the back from a few colleagues — while incorrect predictions draw intense scrutiny. Low reward, high risk.

Our hunch is that the best pundits are stuck in this Bermuda Triangle, quietly amassing first-rate track records but lacking a platform to reach a wider audience. Instead, our professional ranks and airwaves are cluttered with pundits who make Consensus and Wildly Contrarian predictions. Nate Silver is a rare exception, having made the leap from quant to superstar. We would argue that Silver was aided by the criticism leveled at him by conservatives, which created a false perception that his election predictions were wildly contrarian when they were in fact only moderately so.

PunditTracker aims to disrupt the prediction industry by offering a common platform for everyone – including yourself  — to make predictions. By leveling the playing field and holding everyone equally accountable, we strive to introduce a much-needed dose of meritocracy into the system.

 

This is an updated post from previous years. If you think you can best these pundits, head over to PunditTracker to make your own predictions for 2015. We will be adding many predictions in the weeks ahead and will grade you afterwards!

Grading Byron Wien’s Predictions for 2014

December 29, 2014  |  Finance

We started tracking Byron Wien’s annual predictions in 2010, grading those that meet our threshold for concreteness (not vague and/or subjective) Here is how his predictions for 2014 are looking with a few days left in the year:

PredictionOutcome
S&P 500 total return will approach 20% for full year after 10%+ correction during yearFALSE (no correction)
US real GDP growth will exceed 3% AND unemployment rate ends year below 6.3%TBD on GDP growth (unlikely)
Dollar will appreciate, trading below $1.25 against the euro and buying 120 yen during yearTRUE
Nikkei 225 will rise to 18000+ early in year but market suffers 20%+ correction in second halfFALSE (no correction)
Chinese GDP growth between 5.8%-6.2% AND another disappointing year for mainland equitiesFALSE (equities did great)
Mexico and South Korean market do well; other Emerging Markets do notFALSE (Mexico)
WTI crude price exceeds $110 during the yearFALSE
Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 AND soybeans to $16.00.FALSE
10-year US treasury yield rises to 4% AND short-term rates stay near zeroFALSE
Democrats retain Senate and gain seats in HouseFALSE

Tally: 1/9, with one yet to be determined

Here is how Wien’s track record looks over the past five years — warning: it’s not pretty. ROI is the average return had you bet $1 on each of his predictions based on the corresponding odds at the time of the prediction; it effectively awards more credit for out-of-consensus predictions that come true:

20102011201220132014Cumulative
Hit Rate0/9 (0%)4/8 (50%)3/8 (38%)1/10 (10%)1/9 (11%)9/44 (20%)
Yield$0.00$1.42$0.85$0.15$0.19$0.49

For more details on all of Wien’s predictions, visit PunditTracker’s Finance Page, where you can also make your own predictions for 2015 (we will grade you as well). We will update Wien’s page with his 2015 predictions once they are released.

Grading Bob Doll’s Predictions for 2014

December 29, 2014  |  Finance

We have been tracking the annual predictions of Bob Doll (formerly of Blackrock, now at Nuveen) since 2010. Here is how his predictions for 2014 are looking with a few days left in the year:

PredictionOutcome
US Real GDP will grow 2.8%-3.2% AND Housing Starts will surpass 1 millionTBD on GDP growth (unlikely)
10-year Treasury yield ends year higher than 3% (prediction = moves toward 3.5%)FALSE
US equities record a good year (graded as 5%+) despite enduring a 10% correctionFALSE (no correction)
Cyclical stocks will outperform defensive stocksFALSE
Dividends, stock buybacks, capex, AND M&A will all increase at a double-digit rateTBD on capex
US dollar will appreciateTRUE
Gold price will fallTRUE
Municipal bonds outperform taxable bondsTRUE
Active managers outperform index fundsFALSE (way off)
Republicans increase lead in House AND lose SenateFALSE Senate)

Tally: 3/8, with two yet to be determined

Here is how Doll’s track record looks over the past five years. ROI is the average return had you bet $1 on each of his predictions based on the corresponding odds at the time of the prediction; it effectively awards more credit for out-of-consensus predictions that come true:

20102011201220132014Cumulative
Hit Rate5/9 (56%)3/7 (43%)4/9 (44%)5/9 (56%)3/8 (38%)20/42 (48%)
ROI$0.86$0.75$0.84$0.95$0.75$0.84

For more details on all of Doll’s predictions, visit PunditTracker’s Finance Page, where you can also make your own predictions for 2015 (we will grade you as well). We will update Doll’s page with his 2015 predictions once they are released.

NFL Pundit Rankings through Week 10

November 12, 2014  |  Sports

With ten weeks in the fold, let’s check in and see how the NFL “experts” are doing with their weekly picks this year. We are tracking 24 pundits from CBS Sports, ESPN, and Yahoo.

Here are the rankings sorted by Hit Rate, which is the percentage of games picked correctly.

Through Week 10

PunditHit Rate
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS73%
Cris Carter, ESPN71%
Vegas Favorites70%
KC Joyner, ESPN69%
Dave Richard, CBS68%
Eric Allen, ESPN68%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN67%
Pete Prisco, ESPN67%
Tom Jackson, ESPN67%
Prediction Machine, CBS66%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN65%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN64%
Adam Schefter, ESPN64%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN64%
John Breech, CBS63%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo63%
Josh Katzowitz, ESPN62%
Merril Hoge, ESPN62%
Eric Adelson, Yahoo61%
Mike Ditka, ESPN61%
Jason La Canfora, CBS61%
Mike Golic, ESPN60%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN58%
Will Brinson, CBS58%
Ryan Wilson, CBS56%

Overall, the pundits have had a tough season so far, with only two of them outperforming the batting average had you simply picked all the favorites (according to Vegas oddsmakers): Jamie Eisenberg and Cris Carter. On average, they got 64% of their picks correct compared to 70% for Vegas. The pundits look somewhat better from an “odds-adjusted” standpoint: if you placed bets on all of their picks at moneyline odds, you would have averaged a +1% return.

As far as individual games, the pundits completed whiffed (not one got it right) on many: Bills/Bears in Week 1, Saints/Browns and Rams/Bucs in Week 2, Bucs/Steelers in Week 4, Bills/Lions in Week 5, Redskins/Cowboys in Week 8, Rams/49ers in Week 9, and Steelers/Jets in Week 10. Best game calls include: Keyshawn Johnson as the only pundit to pick the Cowboys over the Seahawks in Week 6 (24% odds), Mike Ditka as the only one to pick both the Bears to beat the 49ers in Week 2 (25% odds) and the Browns to defeat the Bengals in Week 10 (29% odds), and Jason La Canfora picking the Rams over the Seahawks in Week 7 (27% odds).

For more details on all the pundits’ picks and to make your own picks for Week 11 Games, head over to the PunditTracker site (deadline is Saturday).

Finally, here are the Hit Rates by pundit for each of the past three years. The data says it all: on a cumulative basis, not one of the experts who has made picks for each of the past three years has outperformed Vegas.

 

Hit Rate By Year (And Cumulative)

Pundit201220132014 YTDCumulative
Average64%64%64%64%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS66%73%69%
Vegas Favorites64%70%70%68%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN70%65%67%67%
KC Joyner, ESPN66%69%67%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN66%68%65%67%
Prediction Machine, CBS64%69%66%66%
Cris Carter, ESPN64%71%66%
Dave Richard, CBS62%67%68%65%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN69%65%58%65%
Pete Prisco, CBS64%63%67%64%
Tom Jackson, ESPN63%64%67%64%
John Breech, CBS65%63%64%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN64%64%64%64%
Merril Hoge, ESPN67%62%62%64%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS66%62%62%64%
Adam Schefter, ESPN63%64%64%64%
Mike Ditka, ESPN64%64%61%63%
Eric Allen, CBS61%62%68%63%
Will Brinson, CBS65%62%58%62%
Mike Golic, ESPN64%62%60%62%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo62%63%62%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN60%63%64%62%
Ryan Wilson, CBS61%65%56%62%
Eric Adelson, Yahoo61%61%
Jason La Canfora, ESPN62%58%61%60%

Which Experts Predicted a Royals-Giants World Series?

October 19, 2014  |  Sports

It’s deja vu for the Major League Baseball pundits: for the second consecutive year, not one of the 64 pundits we tracked pegged the World Series correctly before the season began.

As we recapped last season, none of the pundits picked either the Red Sox or the Cardinals to make the Series, continuing a multi-year string of futility (following years of complaints that baseball had become too predictable because of payroll disparity). Well, the group did a smidge better (less worse?) this year, as two pundits actually picked the Royals to win the AL Pennant: Jon Heyman of CBS and Steven Wulf of ESPN. The experts struck out entirely on the Giants, which is surprising as Vegas gave San Francisco 12% odds to win the NL (Royals were given a 6% chance to win the AL).

Here were the preseason picks in aggregate (we tracked pundits from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox)

AL PennantNL PennantWorld Series
TB: 25WAS: 25LAD: 17
DET: 22LAD: 23WAS: 17
BOS: 5STL: 16STL: 12
OAK: 4TB: 9
KC: 2DET: 6
NYY: 2BOS: 2
TEX: 2CLE: 1
BAL: 1
CLE: 1

And here were the division picks.

AL(E)AL(C)AL(W)NL(E)NL(C)NL(W)
TB: 39DET: 50OAK: 28WAS: 60STL: 60LAD: 56
BOS: 19KC: 11TEX: 24ATL: 4PIT: 3SF: 5
BAL: 3CLE: 3LAA: 12MIA: 0CIN: 1ARI: 2
NYY: 3CHW: 0HOU: 0NYY: 0CHC: 0SD: 1
TOR: 0MIN: 0SEA: 0PHI: 0MIL: 0COL: 0

14 pundits picked the Royals for a AL Wild Card spot, while 33 picked the Giants for the NL Wild Card.

To see the individual picks by pundit, see here. For details on how the experts did in previous years, visit PunditTracker for a full breakdown and to make your own prediction on the World Series.

 

NFL Pundits: Do any of them pick better than Vegas?

October 8, 2014  |  Sports

With five weeks in the fold, let’s check in and see how the NFL “experts” are doing with their weekly picks this year. We are tracking 23 pundits from CBS Sports, ESPN, and Yahoo.

Here are the rankings sorted by Hit Rate, which is the percentage of games picked correctly. We have also included a column for “Profit.” This would be your net profit had you bet $1 on each of the picks at moneyline odds, which gives pundits more credit for picking upsets.

Through Week 5

PunditHit RateProfit
Average61%$(2.13)
Pete Prisco, CBS70%$11.57
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS68%$7.45
Dave Richard, CBS67%$6.84
Tom Jackson, ESPN67%$7.22
Cris Carter, ESPN66%$3.13
KC Joyner, ESPN66%$6.14
Vegas Favorites66%$0.52
Eric Allen, ESPN64%$1.55
Prediction Machine, CBS63%$(1.52)
Ron Jaworski, ESPN63%$(1.28)
Seth Wickersham, ESPN63%$1.98
Jason La Canfora, CBS62%$0.20
Adam Schefter, ESPN61%$(2.51)
John Breech, CBS59%$(4.95)
Mark Schlereth, ESPN59%$(6.47)
Mike Golic, ESPN59%$(5.65)
Will Brinson, CBS59%$(2.80)
Frank Schwab, Yahoo58%$(8.57)
Chris Mortensen, ESPN57%$(8.46)
Josh Katzowitz, CBS57%$(10.03)
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN57%$(7.34)
Merril Hoge, ESPN57%$(8.26)
Mike Ditka, ESPN57%$(1.84)
Eric Adelson, Yahoo55%$(9.82)
Ryan Wilson, CBS50%$(17.00)

Overall, the pundits have had a mediocre season so far, with only six of them outperforming the hit rate had you simply picked all the favorites (according to Vegas oddsmakers). From a profit standpoint, they have been money-losing, with $1 bets yielding $0.97 on average. On an individual basis, Pete Prisco has had a stellar year, hitting on 70% of his picks, while his CBS colleague Ryan Wilson is off to a woeful start.

As far as individual games, the pundits completed whiffed (i.e. 0/23) on several: Bills/Bears in Week 1, Saints/Browns and Rams/Bucs in Week 2, Bucs/Steelers in Week 3, and Bills/Lions in Week 4. Best game calls include: Mike Ditka as the only pundit to pick the Bears to beat the 49ers in Week 2 (25% odds), Pete Prisco as the only one to pick the Chargers over the Seahawks in Week 2 (32% odds), and Adam Schefter as the only one to pick the Vikings over the Falcons in Week 4 (34% odds).

For more details on all the pundits’ picks and to make your own picks for Week 6 Games, head over to the PunditTracker site.

Finally, here are the Hit Rates by pundit for each of the past three years. The data says it all: on a cumulative basis since 2011, not one of these experts has outperformed the batting average of simply picking the favorites as deemed by Vegas.

Hit Rate By Year (And Cumulative)

Hit Rate201220132014 YTDCumulative
Average64%64%61%62.9%
Vegas Favorites64%70%66%66.9%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS66%68%66.9%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN70%65%63%66.7%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN66%68%63%66.6%
KC Joyner, ESPN66%66%66.0%
Prediction Machine, CBS64%69%63%65.9%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN69%65%57%65.6%
Dave Richard, CBS62%67%67%64.7%
Cris Carter, ESPN64%66%64.6%
Pete Prisco, CBS64%63%70%64.3%
Tom Jackson, ESPN63%64%67%63.9%
John Breech, CBS65%59%63.6%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN64%64%59%63.4%
Merril Hoge, ESPN67%62%57%63.4%
Adam Schefter, ESPN63%64%61%63.1%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS66%62%57%63.1%
Will Brinson, CBS65%62%59%63.1%
Mike Ditka, ESPN64%64%57%62.9%
Mike Golic, ESPN64%62%59%62.6%
Eric Allen, ESPN61%62%64%61.9%
Ryan Wilson, CBS61%65%50%61.4%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo62%58%61.2%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN60%63%57%60.8%
Jason La Canfora, CBS62%58%62%60.1%
Eric Adelson, Yahoo55%55.3%

Which NBA Pundits Predicted a Heat-Spurs Finals rematch?

June 1, 2014  |  Sports

Last year we tracked the preseason predictions of  35 ESPN ‘experts’, and only one correctly pegged the Heat-Spurs Finals matchup: John Hollinger.

With pundits typically guilty of extrapolating from recent performance, we expected many (if not most) to have picked a rematch this year. While 23 of the 28 of the pundits we tracked this year picked the Heat to win the East, only three also had the Spurs in the West: Kevin Arnovitz, Mike Mazzeo, and Nick Friedell.

Here is a breakdown of the collective picks of the group. The pundits were swayed by the flashy offseason moves made the Clippers, pegging them as the favorite in the West:

EasternWestern
23: Heat14: Clippers
03: Pacers06: Thunder
01: Nets05: Spurs
01: Bulls02: Warriors
01: Rockets

Interestingly, while Vegas had the Spurs as the favorite to win the Southwest division (48% odds), the pundits again were swayed by flash, with the majority picking the Rockets:

AtlanticCentralSoutheastNorthwestSouthwestPacific
28: Nets21: Bulls28: Heat28: Thunder14: Rockets28: Clippers
07: Pacers12: Spurs
02: Grizzlies

Here are the individual picks of each of the 28 pundits. Arnovitz, Mazzeo, and Friedell all had the Heat beating the Spurs. Only two pundits picks the Spurs to win it all: J.A. Adande (Spurs over Pacers) and Kevin Pelton (Spurs over Bulls).

ATLCTRSENWSWPACEASTWESTCHAMP
Kevin ArnovitzBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACMIASAMIA
Mike MazzeoBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIASAMIA
Nick FriedellBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACMIASAMIA
Amin ElhassanBKNINDMIAOKCSALACMIALACMIA
Bradford DoolittleBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIAHOUMIA
Brian WindhorstBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIAOKCMIA
Chad FordBKNINDMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
Chris BroussardBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
Chris ForsbergBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIAOKCMIA
Dave McMenaminBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
David ThorpeBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIAGSMIA
Ethan StraussBKNCHIMIAOKCMEMLACMIALACMIA
Henry AbbottBKNINDMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
Ian BegleyBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
Israel GutierrezBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACMIAOKCMIA
J.A. AdandeBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACINDSASA
Justin VerrierBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACMIAOKCMIA
Kevin PeltonBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACCHISASA
Larry CoonBKNINDMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
Michael WallaceBKNINDMIAOKCSALACMIALACMIA
Ohm YoungmisukBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIALACMIA
Ramona ShelburneBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACMIAGSMIA
Tim MacMahonBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACMIAOKCMIA
Tom HaberstrohBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACMIALACMIA
Adry TorresBKNINDMIAOKCMEMLACBKNLACBKN
Mike HuangBKNCHIMIAOKCSALACCHIOKCCHI
Marc SteinBKNCHIMIAOKCHOULACINDLACIND
Maurice BrooksBKNINDMIAOKCSALACINDLACIND

With the Finals starting on Thursday, you still have a few days left to make your own picks for both Game 1 and the Series. We also have live picks open for the NBA coaching carousel (Fisher to the Knicks?) as well as trade rumors (Love getting dealt?). Head over to PunditTracker.com now to make your picks and see if you can crack our User Leaderboard.

 

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May 23, 2014  |  Uncategorized

Kiper, McShay, or Mayock: Who has the most accurate NFL mock drafts?

May 4, 2014  |  Sports

With the NFL Draft pundits rolling out their final mock drafts this week, which one should you pay the most attention to?

We have graded the Round 1 mock drafts of Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), and Mike Mayock (NFL.com) for each of the past six years (2008-2013). Here are the results.

Let’s start with our simple variability measure, which is based on the difference between when each player was projected to be picked and when he was actually picked. A lower variability score is better:

Variability200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock7.39.69.99.37.910.79.1
Kiper10.18.810.47.78.511.79.6
McShay10.78.78.86.87.021.510.6

Mike Mayock has posted the best average. Todd McShay had a great run from 2009-12 but stumbled badly last year (as did all of the pundits, but McShay did even worse).

Here are all the individual major Hits and Misses from the pundits for each of the years:

Biggest Hits and Misses (2008-2013)

The variability metric can be significantly impacted by “outliers” such as McShay picking Ryan Nassib to go #7 last year (he went #110), so we have calculated a few alternative metrics, including Median Error and Hit Rate.

Median Error (lower = better)

Median Error200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock2.04.03.03.03.53.53.2
Kiper3.03.53.04.03.03.53.4
McShay4.04.03.03.53.05.03.8

Hit Rate (higher = better): pure percentage of how many picks were correct

Hit Rate200820092010201120122013Average
Mayock35%28%22%28%19%28%27%
Kiper29%25%31%28%22%25%27%
McShay16%25%34%25%16%22%23%

We will be back next week with our grades for this year’s mock drafts.

For those new to PunditTracker, we aim to level the prediction playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. Head over to our NFL Draft section to make some of your own predictions for the 2014 Draft using the ‘Vote Now’ buttons. 

 

 

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