We tracked 18 pundits who made predictions for all 24 categories of the 86th Annual Academy Awards. Here are the results:
[The second column is the # of predictions that turned out correct. The third column is the Yield, which measures the average payout, based on Vegas odds, had you bet $1 on each of the predictions. This gives pundits more credit for out-of-consensus calls, and a Yield above $1.00 means the pundit did better than the consensus view]
Pundit Hit Rate $1 Yield
Average 20/24 $1.08
Tom Shone, The Guardian 22/24 $1.28
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture 21/24 $1.23
Gregory Ellwood, HitFix 21/24 $1.23
Glenn Whipp, LA Times 21/24 $1.21
Thelma Adams, Yahoo 22/24 $1.16
Kristopher Tapley, HitFix 20/24 $1.16
Anne Thompson, Indiewire 21/24 $1.11
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter 19/24 $1.09
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit 19/24 $1.09
Steve Pond, TheWrap 19/24 $1.08
Vegas Favorites 21/24 $1.06
Mark Harris, Grantland 20/24 $1.03
Anthony Breznican, Entertainment Weekly 19/24 $0.99
Joel D Amos, Movie Fanatic 19/24 $0.99
Kevin Polowy, Yahoo 20/24 $0.99
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times 20/24 $0.99
Pete Hammond, Deadline 17/24 $0.99
Peter Knegt, Indiewire 19/24 $0.96
Guy Lodge, HitFix 17/24 $0.82
The Best Oscar Pundit for 2014 was Tom Shone of The Guardian, who got 22 of 24 picks correct for a Yield of $1.28, helped by non-consensus picks such as ‘Helium’ for Live Action Short and ’20 Feet from Stardom’ for Documentary. Overall, the pundits did quite well this year, generating an average Yield of $1.08. It was a strong year for the favorites, with Vegas going 21/24 for a $1.06 Yield.
Here is how the pundits did by category. Not one picked Mr. Hublot for Animated Short (Get a Horse! was the consensus favorite).
Category Hit Rate
Best Picture 11/18
Best Actor 18/18
Best Actress 18/18
Best Supporting Actor 18/18
Best Supporting Actress 15/18
Best Director 18/18
Best Adapted Screenplay 18/18
Best Original Screenplay 10/18
Best Animated Feature 18/18
Best Foreign Language Film 15/18
Best Documentary Feature 14/18
Best Cinematography 18/18
Best Film Editing 7/18
Best Production Design 13/18
Best Costume Design 12/18
Best Original Song 18/18
Best Original Score 17/18
Best Sound Editing 18/18
Best Sound Mixing 18/18
Best Visual Effects 18/18
Best Makeup & Hairstyling 17/18
Best Live Action Short 9/18
Best Animated Short 0/18
Best Documentary Short 18/18
Finally, here is our scorecard of the pundits who have full predictions for at least two of the past three Oscars:
Pundit 2012 2013 2014 Average
Melena Ryzik, New York Times $1.36 $1.31 $1.34
Anthony Breznican, Entertainment Weekly $1.61 $0.99 $1.30
Anne Thompson, Indiewire $1.07 $1.45 $1.11 $1.21
Kris Tapley, HitFix $1.39 $1.08 $1.16 $1.21
Clayton Davis, The Awards Circuit $1.35 $1.12 $1.09 $1.19
Scott Feinberg, Hollywood Reporter $0.96 $1.48 $1.09 $1.18
Tom Shone, The Guardian $1.05 $1.28 $1.17
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times $1.16 $0.96 $1.21 $1.11
Peter Knegt, Indiewire $1.37 $0.94 $0.96 $1.09
Vegas Favorites $1.10 $1.03 $1.06 $1.06
Pete Hammond, Deadline.com $1.22 $0.86 $0.99 $1.02
Kyle Buchanan, Vulture $1.01 $0.82 $1.23 $1.02
Steve Pond, TheWrap $1.14 $0.83 $1.08 $1.02
Joel D Amos, Movie Fanatic $1.02 $0.99 $1.01
Kevin Polowy, Yahoo $0.95 $0.84 $0.99 $0.93
Guy Lodge, HitFix $1.01 $0.93 $0.82 $0.92
Rotten Tomatoes $0.83 $1.01 $0.92
Richard Roeper, Chicago Sun-Times $0.73 $0.89 $0.99 $0.87
Perhaps it’s too early to make predictions for the 2015 Oscars , but why not give it a shot? For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. Head over to our Entertainment section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks on next year’s Oscars as well as box office predictions for ‘Mr. Peabody & Sherman’, ‘Divergent’, and ‘Avengers 2′. You can also see a full breakdown of all the pundits’ picks here.
If we missed any Oscar pundits that you think we should have tracked, please let us know and we will add them to the list.
Here is how the 24 NFL game pickers we are tracking fared with their weekly picks this year, sorted best-to-worst by season Yield, along with their Super Bowl picks. As a reminder, Yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds. As a group, the ‘experts’ added no value this year, with a collective yield of $1.00.
Pundit Record Hit Rate $1 Yield Super Bowl Pick
Ron Jaworski, ESPN 181-84 68% $1.08 Broncos
Prediction Machine, CBS 182-83 69% $1.05 Seahawks
Mike Ditka, ESPN 169-96 64% $1.05 Broncos
Vegas Favorites 185-80 70% $1.05 Broncos
Dave Richard, CBS 177-88 67% $1.05 Seahawks
Seth Wickersham, ESPN 171-94 65% $1.04 Seahawks
Ryan Wilson, CBS 173-92 65% $1.04 Seahawks
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS 176-89 66% $1.03 Broncos
K.C. Joyner, ESPN 175-90 66% $1.03 Broncos
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN 166-99 63% $1.02 Seahawks
Tom Jackson, ESPN 170-95 64% $1.01 Broncos
Chris Mortensen, ESPN 171-94 65% $1.01 Broncos
John Breech, CBS 172-93 65% $1.00 Seahawks
Mark Schlereth, ESPN 170-95 64% $1.00 Broncos
Will Brinson, CBS 165-100 62% $1.00 Broncos
Merril Hoge, ESPN 165-100 62% $0.99 Broncos
Adam Schefter, ESPN 170-95 64% $0.98 Broncos
Cris Carter, ESPN 170-95 64% $0.97 Seahawks
Pete Prisco, CBS 167-98 63% $0.97 Broncos
Josh Katzowitz, CBS 164-101 62% $0.96 Broncos
Eric Allen, ESPN 165-100 62% $0.96 Broncos
Mike Golic, ESPN 164-101 62% $0.96 Seahawks
Frank Schwab, Yahoo 161-98 62% $0.95 Jason La Canfora, CBS 154-111 58% $0.93 Seahawks
Average 64% $1.00
We will update the full weekly rankings (2011-13) after the Super Bowl. For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own Super Bowl pick — as well as several prop bets — head over to our Sports section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the NFL ‘experts’, we will hold you accountable after the game!
The headlines for Apple’s earnings are focusing on the 51 million iPhones shipped, which fell shy of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 55 million. For us at PunditTracker, the more interesting question is why — yet again — were the analyst’s estimates were so tightly clustered? As Fortune’s terrific spreadsheet shows, 19 of the 30 analysts predicted between 54 and 56 million iPhones. This range seems shockingly narrow for a consumer technology product, particularly given all the ‘proprietary channel checks’ being done. 29 of the 30 pundits were in a range between 52.0 and 58.5 million, which of course failed to capture the actual result. Only Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest came in below 52 million (his prediction was 50.93).
We discussed potential reasons for this errant clustering in a post last year.
We have recently recapped the awful performances of baseball and college football pundits — both groups whiffed entirely on either of the championship game participants. Did the NFL pundits do any better with their preseason predictions? We tracked 63 ‘experts’ from CBS, ESPN, NFL.com, and Sports Illustrated.
First, here were the aggregate picks for Conference and Super Bowl winners.
AFC NFC Super Bowl
Broncos: 31 Seahawks: 24 Seahawks: 16
Patriots: 11 49ers: 18 49ers: 14
Texans: 10 Falcons: 13 Broncos: 13
Bengals: 10 Packers: 7 Falcons: 7
Colts: 1 Saints: 1 Packers: 7
The group did quite well this season, with 49% of the pundits picking the Broncos to win the AFC (Vegas pegged their odds at 33%) and 38% selecting the Seahawks in the NFC (Vegas = 17%).
Now here are the individual selections. 13 of the 63 pundits picked both the Broncos and Seahawks to make the Super Bowl, including Jim Trotter of SI.com, who has been the best preseason prognosticator of the group since we started tracking them (he was one of two to predict the Harbaugh Bowl last year). Another 16 picked either the Broncos or Seahawks to win it all.
Pundit Network AFC NFC Super Bowl
Austin Murphy SI DEN SEA DEN
Ben Goessling ESPN DEN SEA DEN
Bill Barnwell ESPN DEN SEA SEA
Chris Burke SI DEN SEA SEA
Elliot Harrison NFL DEN SEA SEA
James Walker ESPN DEN SEA SEA
Jim Trotter SI DEN SEA DEN
Judy Battista NFL DEN SEA SEA
Nick Wagoner ESPN DEN SEA SEA
Pat Kirwan CBS DEN SEA DEN
Rich Cimini ESPN DEN SEA SEA
Rick Reilly ESPN DEN SEA DEN
Rob Demovsky ESPN DEN SEA DEN
Adam Schefter ESPN NE SEA SEA
Bill Simmons ESPN NE SEA SEA
Kimberly Jones NFL DEN SF DEN
Mike Wells ESPN DEN SF DEN
Ryan Wilson CBS NE SEA SEA
Todd Archer ESPN DEN SF DEN
Gil Brandt NFL CIN SEA SEA
Jason La Canfora CBS CIN SEA SEA
John Clayton ESPN DEN ATL DEN
Josh Katzowitz CBS DEN ATL DEN
KC Joyner ESPN DEN ATL DEN
Michael C. Wright ESPN HOU SEA SEA
Mike Sando ESPN HOU SEA SEA
Mike Silver NFL CIN SEA SEA
Scott Brown ESPN DEN NO DEN
Terry Blount ESPN HOU SEA SEA
Bucky Brooks NFL DEN SF SF
Ian Rapoport NFL DEN SF SF
Jeff Legwold ESPN DEN SF SF
Jeffri Chadiha ESPN DEN SF SF
Paul Kuharsky ESPN DEN SF SF
Peter King SI NE SEA NE
Phil Sheridan ESPN NE SEA NE
Ashley Fox ESPN DEN ATL ATL
David Fleming ESPN DEN GB GB
Jamison Hensley ESPN DEN ATL ATL
Jeff Darlington NFL DEN ATL ATL
John Keim ESPN DEN GB GB
Pat Yasinskas ESPN DEN ATL ATL
Adam Schein NFL HOU ATL ATL
Adam Teicher ESPN HOU SF HOU
Albert Breer NFL CIN SF SF
Ben Eagle SI HOU GB GB
Bill Williamson ESPN CIN SF SF
Dan Graziano ESPN HOU ATL ATL
Daniel Jeremiah NFL NE ATL NE
David Newton ESPN CIN SF SF
Don Banks SI CIN GB GB
Doug Farrar SI HOU GB GB
John Breech CBS CIN SF SF
Kevin Seifert ESPN HOU SF SF
Matt Williamson ESPN NE GB GB
Michael DiRocco ESPN NE SF SF
Mike Reiss ESPN NE SF SF
Mike Rodak ESPN NE SF SF
Pete Prisco CBS CIN ATL CIN
Seth Wickersham ESPN IND ATL ATL
Tania Ganguli ESPN HOU SF SF
Tom Mantzouranis SI CIN GB GB
Will Brinson CBS NE ATL NE
We will update the full preseason rankings (2009-13) after the Super Bowl. For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own Super Bowl pick — as well as several prop bets — head over to our Sports section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the NFL ‘experts’, we will hold you accountable after the game!
We have been tracking the annual investment picks of the Barron’s Roundtable since 2002. After a remarkable run from 2002-10, during which the Roundtable trounced the S&P 500 for nine consecutive years, the last two years have been marked by underperformance:
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Roundtable Avg -5.7% 45.7% 20.9% 9.1% 22.2% 15.7% -21.4% 31.4% 17.8%
S&P 500 -24.5% 19.7% 8.0% 5.2% 10.3% 4.2% -36.0% 19.7% 9.8%
2011 2012 2002-12 CAGR
Roundtable Avg -4.9% 10.5% 11.4%
S&P 500 -1.1% 11.6% 0.8%
So would 2013 mark a reversion to the ‘good old days’ or would the stock-pickers struggle again? Let’s take a look at how their picks fared this past year:
Roundtable Member 2013 Return
Average Roundtable 21.2%
Meryl Witmer 60.9%
Oscar Schafer 37.7%
Mario Gabelli 34.7%
Brian Rogers 32.6%
S&P 500 28.2%
Abby Joseph Cohen 18.7%
Scott Black 10.8%
Felix Zulauf 0.0%
Fred Hickey -26.1%
The Roundtable underperformed again in 2013, posting a 21.2% return on average versus the 28.2% of the S&P. The group’s performance was dragged down by a few members, in particular Fred Hickey. Due largely to his big bet on gold, Hickey’s picks returned -26.1% on average. Felix Zulauf, the second best roundtable performer since 2002 (behind Marc Faber, who did not make picks this year), also had a tough year given his bet on emerging markets. Scott Black and Abby Joseph Cohen underperformed as well.
On a positive note, several members posted stellar years, notably Meryl Witmer who made three picks, all of which posted 49%+ returns. Oscar Schafer, Mario Gabelli, and Brian Rogers also outperformed the index.
For a full breakdown of all the pundit’s individual picks in 2013, click here.
Despite the sluggish performance in recent years, the group’s long-term record remains admirable. The Roundtable members have posted a 13.3% average CAGR since 2002 versus 1.5% for the S&P.
Here is how they have fared on an individual basis, relative to the corresponding S&P performance for the years in which they made picks:
Return S&P Outperformance
Total (2002-13, 12 years) 13.3% 1.5% 11.8%
Marc Faber (2002-12, 11 years) 22.8% 3.1% 19.7%
Felix Zulauf (2002-13, 12 years) 20.2% 1.5% 18.7%
Oscar Schafer (2002-13, 12 years) 16.0% 1.5% 14.5%
Meryl Witmer (2002-13, 12 years) 14.7% 1.5% 13.2%
Barton Biggs (2002-03, 2 years) 3.4% -4.9% 8.3%
Art Samberg (2002-08, 7 years) 4.2% -3.9% 8.1%
John Neff (2002-07, 6 years) 9.8% 2.8% 7.0%
Mario Gabelli (2002-13, 12 years) 8.2% 1.5% 6.7%
Scott Black (2002-13, 12 years) 5.4% 1.5% 3.9%
Brian Rogers (2012-13, 2 years) 22.9% 19.6% 3.3%
Abby Joseph Cohen (2002-03, 2005-13, 11 years) 4.2% 2.4% 1.8%
Fred Hickey (2005-13, 9 years) 4.0% 4.1% -0.1%
Archie MacAllaster (2002-11, 10 years) -1.9% -0.2% -1.7%
For a full breakdown of the Roundtable performance from 2012-13, click here.
For those new to our site, PunditTracker levels the playing field by allowing users to compete with the ‘experts’. If you’d like to make your own picks on year-end targets for the S&P, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil, Twitter, and more, head over to our Finance section and use the ‘Vote Now’ button to make your picks. As with the Roundtable pundits, we will hold you accountable at year end!
Let’s look at how the 57 NFL Pundits we are tracking fared with their preseason predictions for the division winners. First, here were their collective predictions:
NFC(E) NFC(N) NFC(S) NFC(W)
24: NYG 48: GB 46: ATL 29: SEA
16: WAS 06: CHI 09: NO 28: SF
16: DAL 02: MIN 02: TB 00: STL
01: PHI 01: DET 00: CAR 00: ARI
AFC(E) AFC(N) AFC(S) AFC(W)
57: NE 39: CIN 49: HOU 56: DEN
00: BUF 15: BAL 08: IND 01: KC
00: MIA 03: PIT 00: TEN 00: OAK
00: NYJ 00: CLE 00: JAC 00: SD
The pundits collectively whiffed on the NFL South, with only one pundit (Adam Schein) picking the Eagles in the NFC East and only eight picking the Colts in the AFC South.
Now here are the results on an individual basis, sorted by Yield (the average return had you bet $1 on each of the picks at Moneyline Odds).
Pundit AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West Hit Rate Yield
Overall 57/57 39/57 8/57 56/57 1/57 48/57 0/57 29/57 4/8 $0.97
Ben Goessling NE CIN IND DEN WAS GB ATL SF 5/8 $1.35
Bill Williamson NE CIN IND DEN NYG GB ATL SF 5/8 $1.35
Peter King NE CIN IND DEN NYG GB ATL SF 5/8 $1.35
Albert Breer NE CIN IND DEN NYG GB ATL SF 5/8 $1.35
Kimberly Jones NE CIN IND DEN NYG GB ATL SF 5/8 $1.35
Colin Cowherd NE PIT IND DEN DAL GB NO SEA 5/8 $1.26
Adam Schein NE BAL HOU DEN PHI GB ATL SF 4/8 $1.22
John Clayton NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
David Fleming NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
KC Joyner NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Adam Schefter NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Rich Cimini NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Terry Blount NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB NO SEA 5/8 $1.19
John Keim NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB NO SEA 5/8 $1.19
Phil Sheridan NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Nick Wagoner NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Don Banks NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Ben Eagle NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Doug Farrar NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB NO SEA 5/8 $1.19
Tom Mantzouranis NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Jim Trotter NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB TB SEA 5/8 $1.19
Elliot Harrison NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SEA 5/8 $1.19
Gil Brandt NE CIN IND DEN DAL DET ATL SF 4/8 $1.14
Austin Murphy NE CIN HOU DEN DAL CHI ATL SEA 4/8 $0.98
Bucky Brooks NE CIN HOU DEN DAL CHI ATL SEA 4/8 $0.98
Mike Silver NE CIN HOU DEN DAL CHI ATL SEA 4/8 $0.98
Bill Simmons NE CIN HOU DEN NYG CHI ATL SEA 4/8 $0.98
Mike Reiss NE BAL IND DEN NYG GB NO SF 4/8 $0.97
Jeffri Chadiha NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Rick Reilly NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Scott Brown NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB NO SF 4/8 $0.90
Tania Ganguli NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Mike Rodak NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB NO SF 4/8 $0.90
Mike Wells NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Dan Graziano NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Michael C. Wright NE CIN HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Pat Yasinskas NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Jeff Darlington NE CIN HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Judy Battista NE CIN HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 4/8 $0.90
Ashley Fox NE BAL HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
Mike Sando NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
Matt Williamson NE BAL HOU DEN WAS GB NO SEA 4/8 $0.82
Jamison Hensley NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
James Walker NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
Rob Demovsky NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
Chris Burke NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
Daniel Jeremiah NE BAL HOU DEN DAL GB ATL SEA 4/8 $0.82
Adam Teicher NE CIN HOU DEN DAL CHI ATL SF 3/8 $0.69
David Newton NE CIN HOU DEN NYG MIN NO SF 3/8 $0.69
Ian Rapoport NE CIN HOU DEN DAL CHI ATL SF 3/8 $0.69
Bill Barnwell NE PIT HOU KC NYG GB TB SEA 3/8 $0.66
Kevin Seifert NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 3/8 $0.52
Seth Wickersham NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 3/8 $0.52
Michael DiRocco NE BAL HOU DEN WAS GB ATL SF 3/8 $0.52
Paul Kuharsky NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 3/8 $0.52
Jeff Legwold NE BAL HOU DEN NYG GB ATL SF 3/8 $0.52
Todd Archer NE PIT HOU DEN WAS MIN ATL SF 2/8 $0.31
No pundit got more than 5 of the 8 divisions correct. Those with the best yields generally picked the Colts, as Vegas pegged their odds to win the AFC South at just 28% (Texans were the overwhelming favorite). The Eagles were given an 18% probability by Vegas, which makes it surprising that only Schein made that pick, while the Panthers were 15%.
To see what these pundits collectively picked for the conference winners and player awards, see our preseason recap post.
We have been recapping 2013 financial predictions over the past few weeks, and the message is clear: the finance pundits had a tough go of it this year. The prevailing sentiment heading into 2013 was caution, if not outright pessimism, which of course has not played out in the equity markets.
It wasn’t easy, but after sifting through all the prognostications, we have come up with four candidates for the Worst Financial Prediction of 2013. We’ll let you make the call on which is the worst through our voting widget below.
(1) Byron Wien: Gold will reach $1900/oz and S&P 500 will fall below 1300
As we discussed in a blog post earlier this month, Byron Wien of Blackstone had another woeful performance with his surprise predictions this year, going 1-for-10, bringing his total to 8-for-35 since we started tracking him in 2010.
Wien’s long gold/short S&P call could hardly have been more wrong, as the S&P is now trading above 1800 (up ~30%) while gold is hovering around $1200 (down ~30%).
(2) Gene Munster: Apple will release a television
Taken in isolation, this prediction from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster was a perfectly reasonable one. Several other pundits we tracked predicted the same, and 48% of our users agreed that an Apple television was in the cards this year.
The reason that Munster’s prediction makes our Worst list is because he has made this prediction before…. again and again. In fact, starting in mid-2009 Munster has predicted an Apple television every six months or so and of course has been wrong each time. Lest you think we are exaggerating, here are the links to prove it: August 2009, March 2010, September 2010, June 2011, December 2011, May 2012, November 2012, March 2013, November 2013.
If Munster doesn’t win worst prediction this year, he may well be a candidate again next year as he has now pushed back his Apple television timeline to the first half of 2014. Regardless, he wins our first entry into the Broken Clock Hall of Fame.
(3) Harry Dent: Dow Jones Index will fall below 5000
Ever since his book The Great Crash Ahead was published in 2011, financial newsletter writer Harry Dent has been hitting the television circuits to sell his message of doom & gloom. His prediction that the S&P 500 would fall 30-50% in 2012 proved wildly wrong.
His prediction for 2013, that the Dow Jones would tumble below 5000, was equally bold and equally wrong. The Dow is at 16000 today. Could Dent simply be early? If so, we will be there to give him credit – we are still tracking his “Dow falls to 3000 by 2022” prediction on our site.
(4) Wall Street Analysts: S&P Price Targets
Here were the S&P forecasts of six bulge bracket firms at the start of each of the past three years.
Bank 2011 2012 2013
Average (Banks) 1378 1338 1543
UBS 1350 1325 1425
Barclays 1420 1330 1525
Credit Suisse 1250 1340 1550
Goldman Sachs 1450 1250 1575
JP Morgan 1400 1430 1580
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 1400 1350 1600
Actual 1258 1426 1818*
2011 2012 2013
Average Projected Rise 9.9% 6.4% 8.2%
Actual Rise 0.3% 13.4% 27.5%
The mean S&P estimate has been considerably off-target each year: by +960 basis points in 2011, -700 basis points in 2012, and a whopping -1930 basis points so far this year. Moreover, the clustering effect has been very pronounced, with five of the six analyst predictions each year falling within a 100 point range (1350-1450 in 2011, 1250-1350 in 2012, and 1500-1600 in 2013) – ranges which failed to capture the actual result in every instance. We discussed potential reasons for the errant clustering in a previous post. Regardless, given this performance, should we pay any attention to all the 2014 targets that are coming out lately?
Okay, those are the candidates – now it’s your turn to vote! We will reveal the “winner” on January 9.
Head over to our Finance section to make your own predictions for 2014 and see if you can crack our User Leaderboard. PunditTracker’s user voting platform aims to surface more “Nate Silvers” by allowing people like yourself to build your own public prediction track record. After all, with the financial ‘experts’ falling flat on their faces in 2013, shouldn’t they be replaced?
We will be adding plenty of new predictions as they come in over the next few weeks, so make sure to check back frequently. You can also see the profile pages for all the pundits discussed above, including a full breakdown of their predictions since we started tracking them.
We last checked in on how the NFL experts were doing with their game picks back in Week 11. Let’s see the updated rankings through Week 15, sorted by $1 Yield, which is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds.
Yield 12 13 14 15 Season Season Hit Rate
Average $0.88 $1.06 $1.12 $0.86 $0.99 63%
Ron Jaworski, ESPN $0.77 $1.20 $0.94 $1.06 $1.07 67%
Dave Richard, CBS $1.20 $1.20 $1.28 $1.29 $1.06 66%
Mike Ditka, ESPN $1.56 $0.86 $1.15 $1.00 $1.05 63%
K.C. Joyner, ESPN $0.72 $1.17 $1.58 $0.75 $1.04 66%
Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN $0.92 $0.66 $1.23 $0.89 $1.04 62%
Seth Wickersham, ESPN $0.96 $1.57 $1.22 $0.89 $1.03 64%
Vegas Favorites $0.86 $1.27 $1.26 $0.95 $1.02 68%
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS $0.93 $1.04 $1.20 $0.86 $1.01 65%
Ryan Wilson, CBS $1.00 $1.17 $1.10 $0.75 $1.01 63%
Tom Jackson, ESPN $0.51 $1.07 $0.98 $0.63 $1.00 62%
John Breech, CBS $0.90 $1.07 $1.06 $0.86 $0.99 64%
Chris Mortensen, ESPN $1.03 $1.00 $1.11 $0.96 $0.99 62%
Adam Schefter, ESPN $0.89 $1.39 $1.22 $1.09 $0.98 63%
Cris Carter, ESPN $0.89 $1.18 $1.31 $0.74 $0.97 64%
Merril Hoge, ESPN $0.92 $0.87 $1.19 $0.74 $0.97 62%
Will Brinson, CBS $0.98 $1.03 $0.89 $0.86 $0.97 61%
Pete Prisco, CBS $1.03 $1.24 $1.11 $0.74 $0.97 62%
Frank Schwab, Yahoo $0.76 $0.91 $1.45 $0.52 $0.96 62%
Mark Schlereth, ESPN $0.89 $1.03 $0.98 $0.86 $0.96 61%
Mike Golic, ESPN $0.62 $0.73 $1.04 $0.75 $0.95 61%
Josh Katzowitz, CBS $0.34 $1.05 $0.98 $0.85 $0.93 60%
Jason La Canfora, CBS $0.75 $0.75 $0.73 $1.03 $0.93 57%
Eric Allen, ESPN $0.89 $1.20 $0.94 $0.86 $0.91 60%
Ron Jaworski maintains his slight lead in the rankings while Eric Allen remains in last place. There have been several notable changes, however, including, Dave Richard leaping from the middle of the pack to #2 after posting the best record in three of the past four weeks (9-4, 12-4, 12-4, 12-4).
Mike Ditka (#3) continues to lead the group as far as pegging big upsets, as evidenced in Week 12 when he picked both Tampa Bay to beat Detroit (only pundit to do so) and Jacksonville to defeat Houston (one of two).
Les Carpenter has been removed from the rankings as his picks are no longer being logged by Yahoo. Carpenter had been in the second-to-last place this year and had an overall PunditTracker grade of C+ (picks tracked since 2011).
The group whiffed entirely on the Chargers/Broncos and Eagles/Vikings games last week. In aggregate, the experts have added no value this season, posting a collective yield of $0.99.
There is still time to make your own Week 16 picks and find yourself alongside the experts in our rankings. Head over to our NFL Section to do so.
We have been tracking the annual predictions of Bob Doll (formerly of Blackrock, now at Nuveen) since 2010. Heading into this year, he was 12-for-25 (48% hit rate) for the predictions we tracked, equating to a $0.82 Yield and F grade. Recall that Yield is the ROI had you bet $1 on the prediction based on those consensus odds; this is our core scoring metric and is used to arrive at our letter grade.
2010 2011 2012 Cumulative
Hit Rate 5/9 (56%) 4/8 (50%) 3/8 (38%) 12/25 (48%)
Yield $0.86 $0.83 $0.77 $0.82
Grade F F F F
As we await Bob Doll’s outlook for 2014, let’s recap how his predictions for 2013 are turning out.
Prediction Outcome Consensus Yield
Total 3/7, 2 TBD $0.80
Europe exits recession by the end of 2013 TRUE 42% $2.38
US yield curve steepens in 2013 TRUE 62% $1.61
US stocks see an all-time high during 2013 (S&P 500 above 1565) TRUE 61% $1.64
Emerging market equities outperform developed market equities FALSE 62% $0.00
US multinationals outperform domestically focused companies FALSE 75% $0.00
US passes $2-3 trillion ten-year budget deal FALSE 33% $0.00
Large-caps stocks outperform small-caps AND cyclical companies outperform defensive companies FALSE 52% $0.00
Dividends increase at a double-digit rate as pay-out ratios rise TBD US nominal GDP growth will be less than 5% in 2013 TBD
Consensus refers to how likely PunditTracker’s user base deemed the prediction to occur at the time it was made.
2013 Results: 3/7 (43% Hit Rate), 2 TBD, $0.80 Yield, F Grade
Cumulative Results: 15/32 (47% Hit Rate), $0.82 Yield, F Grade
We tracked seven of Chris Ciaccia’s (TheStreet.com) technology predictions in 2013. Here is how he fared.
Intel will become a major foundry in 2013 FALSE
Twitter will file to go public in 2013 TRUE
Zynga will get acquired in 2013 FALSE
Apple will release a television set in 2013 FALSE
Microsoft will release a next-gen Xbox console in 2013 TRUE
Nokia will lose market share in 2013 TRUE
Steve Ballmer will leave Microsoft in 2013 TRUE
Ciaccia’s best prediction was Steve Ballmer’s Microsoft exit. His Twitter IPO prediction (51% consensus, based on our user votes) was another standout. Ciaccia whiffed on the Zynga acquisition and Apple TV set; while Intel tiptoed into the foundry market, we graded his prediction (“major foundry”) as incorrect.
Final Tally: 4 Correct, 3 Incorrect (57% Hit Rate), $1.07 Yield, B+ Grade
Recall that Yield is our core scoring metric and calibrates predictions for how bold they are, giving pundits more credit for out-of-consensus predictions. It measures the average ROI had bet $1 on each of his predictions, based on consensus odds at the time.
Now here are Ciaccia’s predictions for 2014.
Apple will launch a watch in 2 14
Jawbone or Fitbit get acquired in 2 14
Snapchat valuation bubble will burst in 2 14
Square will go public in 2 14
Dropbox IPO will flop Box IPO will flop HP will enter the 3D printing market in 2 14
Apple will increase its share repurchase program in 2 14
John Chambers will step down as Cisco's CEO in 2 14
Intel will become more relevant in mobile in 2 14
Yahoo will acquired Business Insider in 2 14
For a limited time, you can make your own predictions on many of these. Head over to Chris Ciaccia’s PunditTracker profile page to do so.